股票收益波动对我国居民储蓄影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 11:21

本文关键词： 居民储蓄股票市场收益波动资产选择　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：我国居民储蓄受哪些因素的影响,其影响程度到底怎样,一直是引人关注的话题,更是研究热点。近年来越来越多学者关注到股票收益波动对居民储蓄的影响,一是股市扩容较大,IPO不断、创业板开启；二是股市持续低迷,财富大幅缩水；三是2005年以来房地产市场持续升温,居民投资房地产热情高涨；四是近年CPI一直处于较高位置,居民开始感觉到通胀的压力。本文对影响居民储蓄的因素和居民资产选择倾向进行了分析,对股市收益波动对总体居民储蓄的影响效应进行了实证分析,同时,进一步分析了股票收益波动对城镇居民储蓄的影响,最后针对2006年至2007年两年的特殊时期对股市对居民储蓄的影响进行了月度数据的补充分析。通过研究得出结论：(1)在股市大幅上涨时期,股票市场吸引了部分居民将储蓄转化为股票投资,使得存款增幅减小,对银行存款起到了一定的分流作用,而在股市低迷、大幅下跌时期,部分风险厌恶型的居民远离股市,将资金转存银行或者转投房产,居民储蓄存款明显增长。(2)大部分居民只有在股市长时期上涨或下跌时,也就是发生了趋势改变时,才会改变其股票投资和储蓄行为,或减少储蓄转投股市,或减少投资转存银行,短期的股市波动对居民储蓄余额变动的影响很小。(3)股票收益的正向波动对居民储蓄存款增长率有负向影响,股票收益的负向波动对居民存款增长率有正向影响。但是居民存款的变动对股票收益的敏感性远不如利率、人均可支配收入和通货膨胀率,本文实证结果显示居民存款增长率受相关因素影响程度按从大到小顺序依次为名义利率、居民人均可支配收入增长率、通货膨胀率、上证收盘指数变动率、人均社会保障支出增长率,储蓄存款仍然被居民认为是最安全的首选金融资产。(4)与年度数据实证分析相比,由于月度数据中股指的上升和储蓄的减少都幅度很大,因此上证收盘指数月变动率与城镇居民储蓄存款月增长率之间的双变量相关系数有显著提高。图10幅,表44个,参考文献67篇。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: what are the factors affecting the residents' savings in China, and the degree of their influence has always been a topic of concern. In recent years, more and more scholars have paid attention to the impact of stock return fluctuations on residents' savings. Second, the stock market continues to be depressed and wealth shrinks substantially; Third, since 2005, the real estate market continues to heat up, residents' enthusiasm for investing in real estate is high; Fourth, CPI has been in a higher position in recent years, residents began to feel the pressure of inflation. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the residents' savings and the tendency of the residents' choice of assets, and makes an empirical analysis of the effect of stock market income fluctuations on the overall residents' savings. The influence of stock return fluctuation on urban residents' savings is further analyzed. Finally, according to the special period from 2006 to 2007, this paper makes a supplementary analysis of monthly data on the impact of stock market on residents' savings. The stock market has attracted some residents to convert savings into stock investment, so that the growth of deposits decreased, bank deposits played a role in a certain diversion, and in the stock market downturn, the period of sharp decline. Some risk-averse residents stay away from the stock market, transfer their money to banks or real estate, and their savings deposits increase significantly) most of them only rise or fall over a long period of time. That is, when the trend changes, it will change its stock investment and savings behavior, or reduce savings to the stock market, or reduce investment transfer to the bank. Short-term stock market fluctuations have a small impact on the change of household savings balance.) the positive volatility of stock returns has a negative impact on the growth rate of household savings deposits. The negative fluctuation of stock returns has a positive effect on the growth rate of resident deposit, but the sensitivity of the change of resident deposit to stock income is far less than interest rate, per capita disposable income and inflation rate. The empirical results show that the growth rate of resident deposits is influenced by related factors in the order of nominal interest rate, per capita disposable income growth rate, inflation rate, and the change rate of Shanghai Stock Exchange closing index. Per capita social security expenditure growth rate, savings deposits are still considered by residents as the safest financial asset of choice.) compared with the annual data empirical analysis. Because of the rise of the stock index and the decrease of the savings in the monthly data, the bivariate correlation coefficient between the monthly change rate of the Shanghai closing index and the monthly growth rate of urban residents' savings deposits has increased significantly. Figure 10. Table 44, 67 references.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F832.51;F224

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