航空公司航油套期保值专题研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 08:08

本文关键词： 套期保值风险管理航空公司　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,受大宗商品价格大幅上涨的影响,最终用户企业业绩波动很大,航空公司首当其冲。为了对冲油价风险,航空公司建立了大量套期保值头寸,却因2008年金融危机而遭受了惨重的损失。那么,航空公司究竟是否需要进行套期保值、如何进行套期保值成为业内、外人士非常关注的话题。作为航空公司航油套期保值业务的亲历者,笔者拟通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法详细分析以上问题。本文从套期保值的起源谈起,描述了当前最流行的套期保值理论,分析了各种套期保值工具的优劣势,并通过对油价、宏观经济与航空公司盈利能力的相关性分析,燃油附加费对航空公司航油成本的影响等实例分析等得出结论：燃油附加费对航空公司因燃油价格上涨带来的成本增加影响有限,油价、宏观经济、航空公司的盈利能力也没有必然的联系。笔者还进一步构建了简单的数学模型来模拟算出航空公司理论最佳航油套期保值比例。同时,基于笔者的实践经验和对以往交易的总结,笔者给出了航油套期保值实用工具的选择,并就如何建立科学的套期保值评价体系给出了自己的建议,希望能对国内航空业从事航油套期保值有所借鉴。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the sharp rise in commodity prices, end-user corporate performance has fluctuated greatly, with airlines bearing the brunt. In order to hedge the oil price risk, airlines have established a large number of hedging positions. But because of the financial crisis in 2008 and suffered heavy losses, then, whether airlines need to hedge, how to hedge has become a topic of great concern outside the industry. As the carrier of aviation oil hedging business, the author intends to analyze the above problems in detail through the combination of theory and empirical analysis. This paper starts with the origin of hedging. This paper describes the most popular hedging theory, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various hedging tools, and analyzes the correlation between oil price, macro economy and airline profitability. The effect of fuel surcharge on aviation fuel cost of airlines is analyzed and the conclusion is drawn: fuel surcharge has a limited effect on the cost increase of airlines due to the increase of fuel price, oil price, macro economy. The author also constructs a simple mathematical model to simulate and calculate the optimal aviation oil hedging ratio. Based on the author's practical experience and the summary of previous transactions, the author gives the choice of practical tools for aviation oil hedging, and gives his own suggestions on how to establish a scientific hedging evaluation system. Hope to domestic aviation industry engaged in aviation oil hedging reference.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562.6;F724.5

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