中国经济景气变化与政府债务风险

发布时间：2018-01-23 01:27

本文关键词： 政府债务风险经济景气地方政府性债务稳态分布　出处：《经济研究》2015年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文将债务负担率作为测度政府债务风险的基础。首先,将经济景气纳入分析框架,通过实际利率、基本赤字率和实际经济增长率的经验递归模型求解债务负担率的遍历分布,定量测度中央政府债务风险;其次,通过马约经验风险约束和中央政府债务负担率"倒逼"地方政府债务负担率上限,获得地方债三重风险临界值,间接测度地方政府债务风险。研究结果表明,我国中央政府债务风险小,但资金配置效率低;地方债整体风险可控,逼近风险临界点的速度在经历2009年高潮后开始放缓,但未来一段时期仍表现出快于实际经济增长的超常规增长趋势,预计2019—2022年可能成为风险爆发的集中期。通过政策模拟发现,政府债务风险从根本上受经济景气状况影响,并在不同程度上受金融市场、经济增长和政府预期影响。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the debt burden rate as the basis to measure the risk of government debt. First of all, the economic climate is brought into the analysis framework, through the real interest rate. The empirical recursive model of the basic deficit rate and the actual economic growth rate is used to calculate the traversal distribution of the debt burden rate and to measure the central government debt risk quantitatively. Secondly, through Mayo empirical risk constraints and the central government debt burden rate "upside down" local government debt burden rate upper limit, get the local debt triple risk critical value. Indirect measurement of local government debt risk. The research results show that the central government debt risk is small, but the efficiency of capital allocation is low; The overall risk of local debt is under control and the speed of approaching the critical point of risk began to slow down after the climax in 2009, but in the coming period there will still be a trend of supernormal growth faster than the real economic growth. It is expected that 2019-2022 may become a concentrated period of risk outbreak. Through policy simulation, it is found that the risk of government debt is fundamentally affected by economic prosperity and by financial markets to varying degrees. Economic growth and the expected impact of the government.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;吉林大学商学院数量经济系;
【分类号】：F812.5
【正文快照】： 一、引言Buiter(1985)指出,政府债务是否违约决定了财政的稳定性,进而决定经济实体是否面临破产风险,这是对政府债务风险的早期认识,既给出债务违约是破坏财政稳定的来源,也强调了其对实体经济的危害性。此后,AlbertoTabellini(1992)明确提出,政府债务风险不仅来自违约导致的

【参考文献】