基于面板数据的改进EVA与股价关系研究

发布时间：2018-02-12 05:35

本文关键词： EVA CEVA 股价会计指标面板数据模型　出处：《内蒙古工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济的繁荣发展,人们手中的财富也在不断增加,而且随着理财观念的深入人心,证券投资成为众多投资者的选择。无论是对投资者还是上市公司而言,其中关注的核心内容是企业的价值。传统意义上,可以通过上市公司发布的传统会计指标来估计一个公司的价值,但是传统会计指标未能考虑权益资本成本,因此对企业价值的评估有所偏离。基于传统会计指标的缺陷,EVA指标的使用则考虑了权益资本成本,在反映企业的价值和解释股价波动能力方面更有优势。但是,EVA指标同样也存在缺陷,它未能充分考虑企业现金流带来的成本和流动性风险。故经过改进后的经济增加值指标CEVA不仅考虑了权益资本成本,而且还有助于企业加强对现金流的管理和流动性风险的防范,能更贴近地对企业的价值做出评价。本文在现有的EVA理论的基础上,通过实证研究证明了改进后的CEVA指标在解释股价波动方面的能力优于EVA。文章主要从五个部分进行论述,首先阐述了价值评估理论,对传统的价值评估模型和经济增加值模型进行了对比并且指出EVA指标与企业价值评估之间的关系：其次文章论述了EVA的相关理论,描述了EVA作为企业经营业绩和企业价值评估的指标产生的背景、功能和优劣势;接着文章针对EVA指标的缺陷,引入了经过改进后的经济增加值CEVA；最后文章以钢铁行业的上市公司为样本,通过建立面板数据模型实证研究了CEVA对股价波动的解释能力,最终证明了CEVA比EVA对股价波动有更好的解释能力,能够更加有效地评价企业的价值和经营业绩,从而指导投资者进行证券投资。此外,文章还对农业行业的上市公司做了进一步研究。最后针对文章的结论,笔者给出了相应的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the prosperity and development of China's economy, people's wealth is also increasing, and with the concept of financial management, securities investment has become the choice of many investors, whether for investors or listed companies. Traditionally, the value of a company can be estimated by the traditional accounting index issued by a listed company, but the traditional accounting index fails to consider the cost of equity capital. Therefore, the evaluation of enterprise value is deviated. Based on the defects of traditional accounting indicators, the use of EVA index takes into account the cost of equity capital. It has an advantage in reflecting the value of an enterprise and explaining its ability to fluctuate in stock prices. But the EVA index also has some defects. It fails to fully consider the cost and liquidity risk brought by the cash flow of the enterprise. Therefore, the improved economic value added index (CEVA) not only considers the cost of equity capital, but also the cost of equity capital. It also helps enterprises to strengthen cash flow management and liquidity risk prevention, can more closely evaluate the value of enterprises. On the basis of the existing EVA theory, this paper proves that the improved CEVA index is superior to the EVA in explaining the volatility of stock price by empirical research. This paper compares the traditional value assessment model with the economic value added model and points out the relationship between the EVA index and the enterprise value evaluation. Secondly, the paper discusses the related theory of EVA. This paper describes the background, functions and advantages and disadvantages of EVA as an index of enterprise performance and enterprise value evaluation. Finally, taking listed companies in steel industry as a sample, the paper empirically studies the ability of CEVA to explain stock price volatility by building panel data model. Finally, it is proved that CEVA has a better explanation for stock price fluctuation than EVA, and can evaluate the value and performance of the enterprise more effectively, thus instructing investors to invest in securities. The article also makes a further study on the listed companies in the agricultural industry. Finally, the author gives the corresponding suggestions for the conclusion of the article.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F406.72;F426.31

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