石油金融化市场的前沿问题研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 14:27

本文关键词： 石油市场金融属性石油金融化市场机制　出处：《武汉大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会进步和世界经济的发展，石油与金融已经密不可分。石油金融市场已经成为现代国际金融市场的重要组成部分。石油金融不仅涵盖了石油市场体系和国际金融体系的各个层面，还被欧美等发达国家视为能源安全和能源战略的一个重要组成部分。“石油金融化”逐渐成为全球经济的普遍现象，主要表现在如下三个方面：一是价格体制的金融化；二是资本投机对石油价格和石油市场的操纵；三是石油和国际货币体系联系密切。在现代石油工业诞生至今的150多年历史中，国际石油市场格局几经变迁，在经历了欧美石油公司垄断和欧佩克（OPEC）官方控制后，在20世纪70年代后期，最终形成了以市场供求为基础的定价机制。20世纪90年代后期，国际期货市场蓬勃发展起来，大量的石油交易通过金融市场完成，以期货价格作为世界大宗商品的定价基准已成为国际通行标准。石油期货市场的发展，体现了期货市场巨额资金对石油的追捧，国际石油市场的金融属性已经越来越明显，“石油金融化”这个词语被频繁地用来描述国际原油市场上的价格波动。石油市场的金融化充分地表现在金融机构对石油市场的投机上。近年来，投机成为影响油价的最主要因素。以对冲基金为首的各种投机力量纷纷进入石油衍生品市场，通过对实货和衍生产品的双重参与，造成国际石油价格急剧动荡。国际石油价格不仅是一种基于石油市场厂商生产边际成本和消费者效应函数、反映供需平衡的经济学概念，也成为包括大量金融投机行为的金融学概念。次贷危机的爆发，使全球各主要经济体普遍认识到加强金融监管的重要性，并采取了一系列改革措施。由于美元垄断了石油交易的媒体地位，美国的货币政策成为决定石油价格的重要因素。美元的霸权货币体系是一种松散的受操纵的国际货币体系，强势经济体可以利用这种货币体系转嫁金融危机和获取更多利润，而不需要承担过多的责任。美国货币政策的调整，导致了汇率及利率不同方向的变动，而汇率及利率的变化立即成了对冲基金炒作油价的由头。在汇率因素、利率因素和通胀因素的影响下，石油价格的波动已经彻底成为一种金融现象和货币现象。中国加入WTO时曾郑重承诺，国内的石油市场和金融市场将逐步实现对外开放，石油安全的本质已经从“生产—供应”模式转变成“贸易—金融”模式①。作为全球第二大石油进口国和消费国，我国现行的以两大集团垄断为主导的石油流通体系和以政府为主导定价机制相对封闭，在客观上不利于保障石油供应安全。丰富和完善我国石油金融发展的途径，对确保我国石油金融体系的资源配置功能，提高我国在国际石油市场格局中的地位具有十分重要的作用。本选题共分六个部分：第一章“导论”主要阐述了本选题研究的目的和意义、研究思路和方法、石油金融化市场的基本概念和国内外研究成果，指明了本选题的研究结构、主要创新点以及不足点。第二章“石油市场的金融化属性与理论概述”，研究了石油市场金融化属性的本质特征、表现形式、产生条件和经济功能，并通过对石油期货定价理论、价格波动理论和石油货币理论的相关文献综述，认清了石油金融化理论的研究现状以及未来的发展方向。第三章“石油金融化市场的价格形成机制”采取历史分析与比较相结合的方法，对国际石油定价机制的衍变历程、市场交易体系进行分析，展示了国际油价的一般形成机制和历史波动轨迹。第四章“石油金融化市场的的货币传导机制”，以规范和实证相结合、定量与定性相结合的方式，通过对石油美元的价格传导机制、油价与美元的联动性进行分析，论证了石油美元形式所展现的霸权主义以及美元贬值对美元霸权带来的深刻影响。第五章“石油金融化市场的投机与监管”同样以规范和实证相结合、定量与定性相结合的方式，，通过对投机基金在国际石油市场投机行为的实证分析，以及次贷危机所展现的金融监管缺陷，论证出投机是推高油价的系统性因素。第六章“完善中国石油金融化市场”，分析了中国高度垄断的石油产业格局、初具雏形的石油金融市场和僵硬滞后的价格形成机制等独具特色的市场特征，从国家能源安全和进口高度依存的角度，系统分析了完善我国石油金融化市场的必要性，并提出了一系列改革措施。本选题的主要创新点在于： 1、主题立意有所创新石油的金融化现象是近年来随着石油价格飙升才引起社会关注的，并发展成为影响国计民生的重要议题，“石油金融化”问题既是一个比较新的研究领域，也是一个很好的研究方向。受政策限制，国内尚未形成真正意义的石油金融化市场，因此相关领域的研究大多围绕如何构建中国的石油金融安全体系，系统地研究石油金融市场的论文并不多见。本选题从全局和发展的层面对石油金融市场进行了系统性分析，结合石油金融化市场的历史格局、结构形式、参与者、交易方式等问题，考查了现货市场、期货市场、石油衍生品市场的现状以及国际石油市场上期货、期权等金融化交易工具的使用形式，并在此基础上，联系货币、汇率、投机、流动性等金融因素，突出了国际石油市场金融化的属性。在此基础上，本选题将石油价格的金融化、国际投机资本对石油市场操纵干预以及石油价格与国际货币体系的联系密切三大问题统合成一个有机的整体，辩证地分析出我国石油市场面临的机遇和挑战，属跨学科综合研究范畴。 2、分析角度具有新颖性国际石油市场从垄断向竞争的转变是其发展的必然规律，也是理论与实际紧密联系的实证过程。本选题从国际石油市场的历史格局出发，从投机行为、石油美元、货币驱动的传导机制等独特的视角论证了金融属性与国际石油市场的内在联系，剖析了逻辑与事实的关系。这对提示国际石油市场的金融风险，完善石油衍生品交易的风险管理和风险控制，发展中国的石油金融市场，具有积极的理论和实践意义。 3、建议构想具有新颖性本选题在分析如何完善中国石油金融化战略中，提出了“合理运用外汇储备的建议”、“确定国内成品油与原油的比价关系、加快成品油调价频率”、“充分利用税收杠杆，适当调整汽、柴油消费税的征收标准”、“逐步推出石油衍生品场外交易，加快石油期货品种创新”等新颖的建议。论证了中国石油企业、金融企业走出去，使用国家外汇储备在国际石油期货市场上建立石油仓单，以虚拟货币向股权资产转变为导向，将外汇储备转化为石油金融资产的必要性；呼吁完善成品油价格机制的改革，尽快改变两大集团的市场垄断，充分开放成品油市场，完善期货市场的法律法规体系，大力发展资本市场和金融市场，加速人民币的国际化；构划了实现石油定价机制市场化的方案，逐步建立起原油、汽油、柴油、燃料油、场外衍生品交易在内的国内石油期货市场体系。本选题所提出的建议和构想，是基于作者长期实际工作基础上所做出的总结，具有较强的实践性和原创性。
[Abstract]:With the development of social progress and the development of world economy , oil and finance have become inseparable . Oil finance market has become an important part of modern international financial market . Petroleum finance not only covers all aspects of petroleum market system and international financial system , but also is regarded as an important part of energy security and energy strategy by developed countries such as Europe and America . In the 150 - year history of the birth of modern petroleum industry , the pattern of international petroleum market has changed . After the official control of oil companies and OPEC in the late 1990s , the international futures market has developed rapidly . In the late 1990s , the international futures market has been booming , and a large amount of oil trade has become the international standard for the pricing of commodities in the world . The development of the oil futures market reflects the huge fund of the futures market in the pursuit of oil , and the financial attributes of the international petroleum market have become more and more obvious , and the term " oil and finance " is used to describe the price fluctuations on the international crude oil market . In recent years , speculation has become one of the most important factors that affect the oil price . In recent years , speculation has become one of the most important factors that affect the oil price . The international oil price is not only a kind of financial concept based on the production marginal cost and the consumer effect function of the oil market , reflects the balance of supply and demand , but also becomes a financial concept including a large amount of financial speculation . The dollar ' s monetary policy has become an important factor in determining oil prices because of the monopoly on the media position of oil trading . The U.S . dollar ' s monic currency system is a loose , manipulated international monetary system that can be used to transform the financial crisis and obtain more profits without excessive responsibility . The changes in the U.S . monetary policy have immediately become the head of oil prices for hedge funds . In exchange rate factors , interest rate factors and inflation factors , fluctuations in oil prices have become a financial phenomenon and currency phenomenon . As the world ' s second largest oil - importing country and consumer , China ' s existing oil - circulation system dominated by the two big groups and the government - led pricing mechanism are relatively closed , so it is not conducive to the security of oil supply . It has a very important role in ensuring the resource allocation function of China ' s oil financial system and improving our position in the international petroleum market . This topic is divided into six parts : The first chapter introduces the purpose and significance of the study of this topic , the basic concept of petroleum and finance market and the research results at home and abroad , and points out the research structure , main innovation points and shortage points of this topic . The second chapter summarizes the characteristics , forms , production conditions and economic functions of the financial attributes of the petroleum market , and summarizes the current research situation and future development direction of the theory of oil futures pricing theory , price fluctuation theory and oil monetary theory . In chapter 3 , " Price Formation Mechanism of Petroleum Financial Market " takes the combination of historical analysis and comparison , analyzes the derivative course and market trading system of international oil pricing mechanism , and shows the general mechanism and historical fluctuation track of international oil price . In the fourth chapter , " the monetary transmission mechanism of the oil - finance market " , combined with the combination of norms and demonstration , quantitative and qualitative analysis , through the analysis of the price - conduction mechanism of the oil dollar , the oil price and the United States dollar ' s joint initiative , demonstrates the deep influence of the hegemony and the depreciation of the United States dollar on the United States dollar hegemony . In the fifth chapter , " the speculation and supervision of the oil - finance market " is also combined with the combination of norms and demonstration , the quantitative and qualitative method , through the empirical analysis of the speculation fund in the international oil market speculation , and the financial supervision defect displayed by the sub - loan crisis , demonstrates that speculation is the systemic factor pushing the high oil price . In the sixth chapter , the author analyzes the market characteristics of China ' s highly - monopoly oil industry pattern , the first prototype oil financial market and the rigid - lag price forming mechanism , analyzes the necessity of perfecting China ' s oil - finance market from the angle of national energy security and import height dependence , and puts forward a series of reform measures . The main innovation points of this selection are as follows : 1 . Innovation in theme In recent years , the financial phenomenon of oil has caused social concern as the price of oil has soared , and it has become an important issue that affects the livelihood of the country . The problem of " oil and finance " is both a new research field and a good research direction . Based on the systematic analysis of petroleum financial markets from the aspects of global and development , the paper examines the current situation of the stock market , futures market , oil derivatives market and the financial factors such as futures and options in the international petroleum market . On the basis of the above , the financial factors such as currency , exchange rate , speculation and liquidity are examined . On this basis , the thesis combines the finance of oil price , international speculative capital on the manipulation of oil market and the linkage between oil price and international monetary system . 2 . The angle of analysis is novel . The transformation of international petroleum market from monopoly to competition is an inevitable rule of its development , and it is an empirical process of the close relationship between theory and practice . This thesis demonstrates the relationship between financial attributes and international petroleum market from the unique perspective of the historical pattern of international petroleum market . This paper analyzes the relationship between financial attributes and international petroleum market . It has positive theoretical and practical significance to prompt the financial risks of the international petroleum market , improve the risk management and risk control of oil derivatives trading , and develop China ' s oil financial market . 3 . It is suggested to have novelty This paper analyzes how to perfect China ' s petroleum and finance strategy , puts forward the suggestion of " reasonable application of foreign exchange reserve " , " determines the relationship between domestic product oil and crude oil , accelerates the oil price adjustment frequency " , " makes full use of the tax lever , properly adjusts the collection standard of gasoline and diesel consumption tax " , " gradually launches oil derivatives OTC , accelerates the oil futures variety innovation " and so on . The proposal and the idea put forward in this selection are based on the conclusion that the author has made on the basis of long - term practical work , and has stronger practicability and originality .

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F416.22;F831.5

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