美国公共债务负担率逆转的原因及对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-02-27 09:50

本文关键词： 公共债务负担率逆转经济增长财政收支　出处：《学术月刊》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：第二次世界大战以后,伴随着美国经济的稳定发展,美国公共债务规模呈现不断扩大的趋势。然而,与绝对规模不断增长的趋势不同,美国的公共债务负担率在第二次世界大战后至1980年呈不断下降的状态,而在1980年以后逆转为不断上升的态势。通过比较研究的方法,从开放的宏观经济学以及财税政策的角度,对美国债务负担率发生逆转的原因进行分析,可得出:一方面,1980年以后,GDP的增速除了在克林顿执政期间稳定外,整体呈现逐渐减缓的态势,GDP增速趋缓主要是投资率的不断下降和对外贸易逆差不断扩大所致。另一方面,1980年以后,美国财政收支失衡加剧。在财政支出方面,由于美国失业率居高不下、贫困率不断上升、老龄化程度不断加剧,导致美国社会保障支出不断扩大;在财政收入方面,在收入分配恶化和减税政策的共同作用下,美国政府财政收入占GDP的比例不断下降。结合美国公共债务发展的现实教训,中国公共债务发展可得到相应的启示。
[Abstract]:After World War II, with the steady economic development of the United States, the size of the United States public debt showed a growing trend. The public debt burden rate in the United States declined from World War II to 1980, and then reversed to a rising trend after 1980. Through comparative studies, from the perspective of open macroeconomics and fiscal and taxation policies, By analyzing the reasons for the reversal of the US debt burden rate, it can be concluded that, on the one hand, after 1980, the GDP growth rate was stable during the Clinton administration. The overall trend of slowing GDP growth is mainly due to the declining investment rate and the widening foreign trade deficit. On the other hand, after 1980, the imbalance in the United States' fiscal revenue and expenditure has intensified. In terms of fiscal expenditure, As the unemployment rate remains high, the poverty rate is rising, and the degree of aging is increasing, social security spending in the United States continues to expand. In terms of fiscal revenue, under the combined effect of deteriorating income distribution and tax cuts, The proportion of US government revenue to GDP is declining. Combined with the practical lessons of the development of American public debt, the development of China's public debt can be inspired accordingly.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F817.12;F812.5

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