银行类A股上市公司市盈率影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 18:42

本文选题：银行上市公司　切入点：市盈率　出处：《浙江财经学院》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融是现代经济的核心,我国的金融体系以银行业为主导,银行业在整个国民经济体系中也占据着十分重要的地位。随着我国资本市场的发展,在国家相关政策的鼓励和指导下,我国商业银行加快了上市步伐,2010年以中国农业银行股改上市为标志,我国五家大型商业银行和大多数的股份制商业银行都已经登陆资本市场,上市银行在我国银行体系中的代表性也大大增强。无论是在欧美发达国家的资本市场还是如我国这样的新兴资本市场,市盈率指标都很受人关注,它是市场预期和企业业绩表现比较完美的结合,能够帮助投资者更为科学地判断股票的投资价值。银行业上市公司作为A股市场的权重板块,其走势和市场表现对于A股市场有着很大的影响,银行业上市公司平均市盈率与上海A股市场平均市盈率变化趋势基本一致;2009年以来,银行业上市公司市盈率绝对值低于市场整体水平情况受到了广泛的关注,围绕着银行股是否被低估也展开了激烈的讨论。但综合来说,目前的研究多是从某一个方面出发,对于银行类上市公司市盈率的研究缺乏整体性和系统性,也并没有进行深入的研究。因此,在总结以往研究的基础上,本文利用我国上市银行公司的市盈率和相关影响因素指标的数据,来深入系统地分析哪些因素导致了银行业上市公司市盈率的变化,并进一步利用计量方法来发现在影响银行上市公司市盈率的因素中,哪些因素的影响作用更为重要。本文的研究共可分为六个部分:第一部分阐述了文章的研究背景和理论意义;第二部分介绍了市盈率的概念以及文中要用到的相关理论;第三部分介绍了我国银行上市公司的概括以及对银行上市公司平均市盈率和各银行市盈率进行了简要的描述;第四部分是市盈率影响因素的理论分析,从银行业经营业绩、银行业特殊性和政府监管、股票市场波动和投资者行为与偏好三个方面对影响银行上市公司市盈率的因素进行了分析,为下文的实证分析检验提供了理论基础;文中的第五部分是实证检验,在第四部分理论分析的基础上,将影响银行上市公司市盈率的因素指标分为五类,分别利用上市时间较长的3家银行和全部12家银行上市公司的面板数据和相关因素指标数据,利用面板数据回归、面板数据协整检验和FMOLS估计方法进行了分析检验,对理论分析结果进行验证;第六部分是本文的结论,在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,提出了本文的研究结论。我们的研究发现上海A股市场平均市盈率(SZPE)、每股收益增长率(EPSG)、流通股本(LNCSTOCK)、资本充足率(CAR)和换手率(TURNOVER)五个指标对银行业上市公司市盈率水平有显著的影响作用。在这些影响因素中,上海A股市场整体市盈率水平即股票市场整体估值水平对银行业估值有着最为显著的影响,这可能与银行市值在整个市场中所占比重较大有关;影响显著作用其次的是反映银行上市公司业绩的每股收益增长率和反映投资者情绪和偏好的换手率指标,这两个指标与市盈率水平呈现同方向的变化,即银行业绩的增长和投资者更为喜欢购买银行业公司的股票都有助于银行上市公司市盈率水平的提升;在12家银行上市公司的面板数据回归中发现了银行流通股本的大小与其市盈率水平呈现反向的变化,而在3家银行的回归中股本大小的影响作用不太显著,可能是由于最初选择的3家银行都是全国性股份制银行,股本规模的差别不大,而12家银行中既有如工商银行等大型商业银行,也有南京银行等城市商业银行,使得股本大小的影响作用显现出来;在数据回归中还发现反映政府监管因素的资本充足率指标对银行上市公司市盈率水平变化有所影响,资本充足率是银行的资产对其风险的比率,其高低体现了银行应对风险能力的大小,充足的资本有助于银行应对经营中遇到的各种风险。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy, the financial system of our country was dominated by the banking industry, the banking industry also occupies a very important position in the whole national economy. With the development of China's capital market, the relevant national policies to encourage and guide, China's commercial banks to speed up the pace of the market, in 2010 Agricultural Bank of Chinese listed as a symbol of China's big five commercial banks and most of the joint-stock commercial banks have landed in the capital market, the listed banks in the representative of China's banking system is also greatly enhanced.
Whether in the developed countries such as China's capital market is still emerging capital markets, the price earnings ratio is very popular, it is the combination of market expectation and enterprise performance more perfect, can help investors more scientifically judge the investment value of stocks. The banking industry listed companies as the weight plates of A stock market the trend of the market and have great influence on A stock market, listed companies in the banking industry average price earnings ratio is consistent with the Shanghai A stock market average price earnings ratio trend; since 2009, the listed banking earnings absolute value lower than the overall level of market situation has aroused wide attention around the banking stocks are undervalued has also launched a fierce discussion. But in general, the current research is starting from a certain aspect, for the study of earnings of listed banks lack of integrity And systematic, and no in-depth study. Therefore, on the basis of the previous studies, this paper use data and related factors affect the listed bank corporate earnings, to analyze systematically the factors which cause the change of price earnings ratio of Listed Companies in the banking industry, and further use of econometric method found in the influencing factors of price earnings ratio of Listed Companies in the bank, the effect factors which is more important.
This paper can be divided into six parts: the first part describes the research background and theoretical significance; the second part introduces the relevant theories of earnings and will be used in this paper; the third part of the listed commercial banks in China and the general of the average price earnings ratio of listed companies and banks bank earnings a brief description; fourth part is the theoretical analysis on Influence Factors of earnings, from banking business performance, the features of banking and government regulation, the three aspects of the stock market volatility and investor behavior preference and analyzes the factors influence the bank earnings of listed companies, and provides a theoretical basis for the following empirical test and analysis; the fifth part is the empirical test, based on the fourth part of the theoretical analysis on the influence factors of bank earnings will be listed companies are divided into five categories, divided beli Using the panel data of 3 banks listed a long time and all 12 banks listed companies and related factors of index data, using panel data regression, Panel Data Cointegration test and FMOLS method to analyze and test, to verify the results of theoretical analysis; the sixth part is the conclusion of this paper, based on theoretical analysis and empirical research the last, this paper put forward the research conclusion.
Our study found that Shanghai A stock market average price earnings ratio (SZPE), earnings per share growth rate (EPSG), the flow of capital (LNCSTOCK), the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and turnover rate (TURNOVER) five index of listed banking earnings have significant effect. Among these factors. Shanghai A stock market overall level of earnings that the stock market valuation of the overall level has the most significant impact on bank valuation, which may be related to the market value of banks in the market for a large proportion; significant role followed by the bank to reflect the performance of listed companies earnings per share growth rate and reflect investor sentiment and preference the exchange rate index, the two index and earnings levels showed the same direction change, namely bank growth performance and investors more love to buy banking stocks will help banks price earnings ratio of listed companies To enhance the level of bank; circulation of capital size and earnings levels showed reverse changes were found in the panel data of 12 listed companies in the return of the bank, and the effect of equity in the regression of 3 banks in size was not obvious, may be due to the initial selection of 3 banks are national joint-stock banks the size of equity, little difference, and has 12 banks such as industrial and commercial bank and other large commercial banks, there are Bank of Nanjing City Commercial Bank, the effect of equity size appeared; the data regression also found that the factor which reflects the government regulation of capital adequacy ratio index of listed companies impact on bank earnings levels somewhat, the capital adequacy ratio is the ratio of bank assets to its risk, it can embody the ability to cope with risks of bank size, capital helps the banks to deal with the business in All kinds of risks.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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