A股“成长型公司”成长要素研究及投资应用

发布时间：2018-03-04 22:10

本文选题：成长型公司　切入点：成长驱动要素　出处：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：成长型公司是股市投资魅力的重要来源，但由于企业成长具有一定程度的随机性，影响企业在资本市场定价的因素也很多，如何找到市值能持续增长的公司始终是投资者面临的难题。“成长型公司的核心驱动要素有哪些、都有哪些典型的成长路径、是否有一套量化的模型来缩小研究范围提升研究效率”是投资者关心的重要议题，也是本文的主要研究内容。本文将剔除再融资与重组影响后的市值增长作为衡量成长性的标准，并据此筛选出A股市场2000-2010年间最具成长性的50家公司作为研究样本。通过对样本公司的分析，本文归纳出A股市场驱动市值增长的七种典型模式：迎合社会变革大趋势下的行业高景气、垄断稀缺性资源、利基市场、创新商业模式、产品和渠道的持续优化、国际产业转移、投资者预期上升，并进一步总结得出每一种成长模式从商业本质上均具有的两大共同成长要素：扩张性、壁垒。对于上述两大具有一定普适性的成长要素，本文归纳出“资本开支/折旧摊销”、“投入资本回报率-加权平均资本成本率”两项针对性的量化指标，，并通过市场数据的实证分析，得出“连续三年资本开支大于折旧摊销，且连续三年投入资本回报率大于加权平均资本成本率”的公司组合在接下来一年相对于沪深300等各类常规指数可较大概率取得超额收益的结论。上述结论对基金经理定性地分析拟投资标的的潜在成长模式、定量地筛选成长型公司股票池、提升研究与投资的效率，提供了一定的参考及现实借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Growth companies are an important source of investment charm in the stock market. However, due to the randomness of enterprise growth, there are many factors that affect the pricing of enterprises in the capital market. How to find companies that market value can keep growing is always a difficult problem for investors. "what are the core driving factors of growth companies and what are the typical growth paths," he said. Whether there is a set of quantitative models to reduce the scope of research to improve the efficiency of research "is an important issue of concern to investors, but also the main research content of this paper." In this paper, the growth of market value after refinancing and restructuring is taken as the measure of growth, and the 50 companies with the most growth in the A share market from 2000 to 2010 are selected as the research samples. This paper sums up seven typical models that drive market value's growth in the A-share market: industry boom, monopoly of scarce resources, niche market, innovative business model, continuous optimization of products and channels in line with the general trend of social change. International industry transfer, investors expect to rise, and further summed up each growth model from the commercial nature of the two common growth elements: expansibility, barriers. For the two general growth factors mentioned above, this paper concludes two specific quantitative indicators, "capital expenditure / depreciation and amortization" and "return on investment capital-weighted average capital cost rate". And through the empirical analysis of market data, it is concluded that "capital expenditure is greater than depreciation and amortization for three consecutive years." Moreover, for three consecutive years, the return on investment capital is greater than the weighted average capital cost ratio "." in the following year, compared with other conventional indices such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the company portfolio can obtain a higher probability of excess return. These conclusions provide a certain reference and practical reference for fund managers to qualitatively analyze the potential growth model of the investment target, to screen the stock pool of growth companies quantitatively, and to improve the efficiency of research and investment.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

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