融资视角下企业财务可持续增长危机预警研究-以沪深A股为例

发布时间：2018-03-05 01:14

本文选题：融资　切入点：可持续增长　出处：《华东交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着世界经济形势的瞬息万变，财务危机预警的重要性不断凸显，成为企业发展中必备的防御措施。理论界，学者们为财务危机预警模型的构建积极钻研；实践中，企业家对危机预警模型的应用努力摸索。然而，发展至今的财务危机预警研究仍不尽人意：学者们大都致力于短期预警模型的建立，研究模型只限于危机和正常的两种状态判断。鉴于此，本文结合可持续增长理论研究财务危机，从融资视角下建立可持续增长危机的中长期预警模型，以期模型具有更早的预测提前期和更好的判别准确率。文章完成的主要工作有：（1）首先就选题背景和意义进行分析，对国内外财务危机预警现状进行回顾、归纳和评述，在此基础上提出本文的研究内容和研究思路。（2）介绍了融资、可持续增长、财务危机、财务危机预警的概念和相关理论，对可持续增长与财务危机关系、融资与可持续增长关系的研究现状进行回顾，为后文的理论分析奠定理论基础。（3）在财务危机与财务可持续增长关系研究的基础上对财务可持续增长危机进行界定，在对融资与财务可持续增长关系定性、定量分析的基础上证明融资视角下建立可持续增长危机预警模型的可行性。然后在理论分析的基础之上，引入融资变量、介绍模型选择和研究方法。（4）实证分析，选取沪深A股2010年首次被ST或*ST的上市公司31家，，控制资产和行业按照1:4的比例选取配对公司，在配对公司中按照扣除非经常损益后每股收益连续三年为正的原则筛选良好样本和介于良好、危机之间灰色样本。最终形成良好、灰色、危机各30家的三个样本，按照初选融资变量，分别选取其2004年、2005年、2006年和2007年的财务数据按照描述性分析、相关性检验、判别分析的步骤建立模型，经过交互验证和回代检验得出模型具有较好的预测效果。结果表明，融资视角下企业财务可持续增长危机预警模型具有较好的预测效果，并且T-6年预测效果最佳，可见模型更适用于中长期危机预警。
[Abstract]:With the rapid changes of the world economic situation, the importance of financial crisis warning is becoming more and more important, and it has become a necessary defense measure in the development of enterprises. Entrepreneurs try to explore the application of crisis early warning model. However, the research on financial crisis early warning is still unsatisfactory: scholars mostly focus on the establishment of short-term early warning model. The research model is limited to crisis and normal state judgment. In view of this, this paper combines the theory of sustainable growth to study financial crisis, and establishes a medium- and long-term early warning model of sustainable growth crisis from the perspective of financing. It is expected that the model has earlier prediction lead time and better discriminant accuracy. The main work accomplished in this paper is as follows: firstly, the background and significance of the topic are analyzed, the current situation of financial crisis early warning at home and abroad is reviewed, summarized and commented, and on this basis, the research contents and research ideas of this paper are put forward. The concepts and related theories of sustainable growth, financial crisis and financial crisis warning are reviewed, and the research status of the relationship between sustainable growth and financial crisis, financing and sustainable growth is reviewed. It lays a theoretical foundation for the following theoretical analysis. It defines the financial sustainable growth crisis on the basis of the research on the relationship between financial crisis and financial sustainable growth, and defines the relationship between financing and financial sustainable growth. On the basis of quantitative analysis, this paper proves the feasibility of establishing a crisis early warning model of sustainable growth from the perspective of financing. Then, on the basis of theoretical analysis, it introduces financing variables, and introduces model selection and research method. In 2010, 31 listed companies with Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares were selected for the first time by St or St, and control assets and industries were selected according to the ratio of 1: 4 to select matching companies. In a matching company, according to the principle of positive earnings per share for three consecutive years after deducting non-recurrent gains and losses, good samples and grey samples between good and bad crises were screened. According to the primary financing variables, the financial data of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2006 were selected to establish models according to the steps of descriptive analysis, correlation test and discriminant analysis. It is concluded that the model has good prediction effect after interactive verification and retrospect test. The results show that the financial sustainable growth crisis early warning model has good prediction effect, and T-6 year forecast effect is the best, so the model is more suitable for medium and long term crisis early warning.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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