欧债危机期间黄金价格影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:38

本文选题：黄金价格　切入点：欧债危机　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黄金因其稀缺性和独特的属性,长久以来与现代货币和金融体系密不可分。它历来被认为是“优质”的避险资产,这在经济危机时期体现得更加明显。但是目前对类似欧债危机这样的金融危机期间,黄金价格的研究成果还比较少,而且研究的角度不够全面,研究力度也不够深入。很多研究只是在理论和经验的基础上进行了分析和预测,进行实证分析研究的很少。掌握黄金价格变化的规律和原因,将能够帮助我国投资者控制风险,正确决策。在现阶段研究黄金价格在欧债危机期间的变化规律具有非常强烈的现实意义。本文主要研究欧债危机期间影响黄金价格变化的主要因素,探索在欧债危机期间黄金价格的变化规律,揭示黄金价格在欧债危机期间变化的原因,从而引发对金融危机时黄金价格变化一般规律的思考。本文借鉴已有文献之研究成果,依据理论分析、经验分析与实证分析相结合的原则,利用VIEWS数理统计软件,采用协整检验、向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法,进行了大量数据的处理和分析,对欧债危机期间黄金的价格进行理论和实证研究。本文的基本框架是：第一章说明论文选题的背景和研究的意义,论文的研究目标,思路和内容,研究方法,以及论文的创新。第二章通过文献综述,对已有的国内外研究进行了总结。概括了当前国内外学者对于黄金价格影响因素的相关研究,并指出了当前研究存在的空白和不足之处。第三章介绍决定黄金价格的要素因素,从需求、供给和金融市场相关要素三个方面进行了介绍和分析,阐述了近十年来特别是欧债危机期间黄金价格的长期和短期的主要影响因素。第四章在综述欧债和全球金融危机期间黄金、美元和欧元走势的基础上,分析了它们之间此消彼长的相互关系和黄金走势发展变化的原因,揭示了经济危机期间黄金价格的变化规律。第五章采用VAR模型,格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法对欧债危机期间黄金价格的价格进行定量的实证检验。第六章对全文进行总结。
[Abstract]:Because of its scarcity and unique attributes, gold has long been inextricably linked to the modern monetary and financial systems. This was even more evident during the economic crisis. But during the current financial crisis, such as the European debt crisis, the research on the price of gold is still relatively few, and the perspective of the study is not comprehensive enough. Many researches are based on theory and experience, but few do empirical research. Mastering the rules and reasons of gold price change will help our investors to control the risk. It is of great practical significance to study the variation of gold price during the European debt crisis at this stage. This paper mainly studies the main factors that influence the change of gold price during the European debt crisis, explores the rules of the gold price change during the European debt crisis, and reveals the reasons for the change of the gold price during the European debt crisis. This paper draws lessons from the research results of the existing literature, according to the principle of the combination of theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and empirical analysis, and makes use of VIEWS mathematical statistics software. Using econometrics methods such as cointegration test, vector autoregressive model, vector error correction model, Granger causality test and so on, a large number of data are processed and analyzed to make theoretical and empirical research on the price of gold during the European debt crisis. The basic framework of this paper is as follows: the first chapter explains the background and significance of the research, the research objectives, ideas and contents, the research methods, and the innovation of the paper. This paper summarizes the existing researches at home and abroad, summarizes the relevant research on the factors influencing gold price, and points out the gaps and deficiencies in the current research. Chapter three introduces the factors that determine the gold price. This paper introduces and analyzes the factors related to demand, supply and financial market. This paper expounds the main factors affecting the gold price in the past decade, especially during the European debt crisis. Chapter 4th summarizes the trends of gold, dollar and euro during the European debt and the global financial crisis. This paper analyzes the interrelation between them and the reasons for the development and change of gold trend, and reveals the changing law of gold price during the economic crisis. Chapter 5th adopts VAR model. Granger causality test and other econometric methods are used to quantitatively test the price of gold during the European debt crisis. Chapter 6th summarizes the full text.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F815;F831.54;F224

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