基于审计结果的地方政府性债务适度规模研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 10:04

本文选题：地方政府债务　切入点：适度规模　出处：《审计研究》2015年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目前,地方政府性债务适度规模研究成为地方政府性债务亟需解决的重点,然而国内通用的警戒线标准单一,难以适用不同地区较大的经济发展水平差异。地方政府性债务的主要成因是地方经济发展压力较大,财力不能满足经济发展需要,应对国际金融危机以及债务监管机制不健全。影响债务规模的主要因素为地方经济发展水平、财政收入、应付利息。以审计署对于C市地方政府性债务审计数据为样本,运用eviews软件进行回归分析可以得到的结论是,政府性债务余额的增长率与财政收入的增长率呈正相关,与GDP增速呈负关,与债务利息增长率呈正相关。通过模型对C市地方政府新一期债务规模进行预测,发现预测的债务规模远高于警戒线限定值。建议相关部门将债务规模的限定与地方经济发展水平等实际情况结合起来,因地制宜地制定债务的适度规模。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on the appropriate scale of local government debt becomes the key point that needs to be solved urgently. However, the standard of common warning line in China is single. The main cause of local government debt is that the pressure of local economic development is great and the financial resources can not meet the needs of economic development. Dealing with the international financial crisis and inadequate debt regulatory mechanisms. The main factors affecting the scale of debt are the level of local economic development, fiscal revenue and interest payable. The conclusion of regression analysis with eviews software is that the growth rate of government debt balance is positively correlated with the growth rate of fiscal revenue, and it is negatively related to the growth rate of GDP. It is positively related to the growth rate of interest on debt. The new debt scale of local government in C city is forecasted by the model. It is found that the predicted debt scale is much higher than the warning line limit. It is suggested that the relevant departments should combine the debt size limitation with the actual situation such as the level of local economic development, and formulate the appropriate debt scale according to the local conditions.
【作者单位】：吉林大学管理学院;南昌大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F812.5

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