金融加速器机制下的资产泡沫与经济波动——以次贷危机前后的中国为例

发布时间：2018-03-09 11:16

本文选题：金融加速器　切入点：资产泡沫　出处：《经济经纬》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：笔者利用带资产泡沫的BGG模型研究了我国资产泡沫与经济波动的关系。首先介绍了带资产泡沫的BGG模型,形成了以企业净值、投资规模、资产泡沫为核心变量的系统;其次综合运用统计数据、计量工具和参考文献三种途径估计了模型的22个参数值;最后基于以上模型,分析了次贷危机前后我国经济的实际波动与模型数值模拟结果。数值模拟结果显示:存在泡沫的经济体比不存在泡沫的经济体波动更大;我国经济在次贷危机前后的波动特征符合超跌破裂方式的形态,即泡沫破裂时资产价格小于价值;盯住资产泡沫的货币政策可以防止经济大幅波动,但是其应对危机时期的负向产出波动比应对泡沫时期的正向产出波动的能力要弱;积极的财政政策可以降低不利冲击的影响幅度,但是过度的投资刺激会加大经济的波动。
[Abstract]:The relationship between asset bubble and economic fluctuation in China is studied by using the BGG model with asset bubble. Firstly, the BGG model with asset bubble is introduced, which forms a system with enterprise net value, investment scale and asset bubble as the core variable. Secondly, the 22 parameter values of the model are estimated by statistical data, measurement tools and references. Finally, based on the above model, This paper analyzes the actual fluctuation of China's economy before and after the sub-prime crisis and the numerical simulation results of the model. The numerical simulation results show that the economies with bubbles are more volatile than those without bubbles; The fluctuation characteristics of China's economy before and after the subprime mortgage crisis accord with the pattern of the mode of over-fall and burst, that is, when the bubble burst, the asset price is less than the value, and the monetary policy of pegging to the asset bubble can prevent the economy from fluctuating sharply. But its ability to deal with the negative output fluctuation during crisis is weaker than that of positive output fluctuation during bubble period; active fiscal policy can reduce the impact of adverse shocks, but excessive investment stimulus will increase economic volatility.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：山东大学经济学院“繁荣计划”资助
【分类号】：F832;F124.8

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