人口结构变化对股市的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 07:42

本文选题：人口结构　切入点：股票市场　出处：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：老年人比例的增加给各国社会、经济带来了巨大的影响,人口结构变化会引起金融市场与实质经济的相关反应,本文基于影响股市最基本因素-人口因素,讨论人口结构变化对股市的影响。主要从两个方面展开：一是股市基本面方面,人口结构通过影响社会经济对股市基本面产生影响,主要是人口红利助推经济发展,有利于股市发展；二是股市投资者行为方面,从生命周期假说出发,不同年龄的投资者对风险及投资收益有不同的偏好,当中年人口明显减少时,股市将承受较大压力。我国正处于特殊的人口转型期,经济发展水平较低,而人口正在快速老龄化,对这一问题的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文采用理论加实证的研究方法。理论部分介绍了人口结构变迁对股市影响的理论传导机制,同时查找数据对理论加以证明,主要从生命周期假说、人口红利理论和人口迭代模型三个理论方面展开。其中生命周期假说主要影响的是投资者行为,人口红利通过影响经济进而对股市产生影响,而人口迭代模型为我们了解人口结构与资产收益的关系提供了一个简单明了的工具。实证部分选取美国、日本、韩国和南非人口结构变化数据和各国股市数据,对比分析论证了股市价格变化与人口结构的变化相关性；同时分别对各国股市投资者行为、投资者数量变化、投资者持股变化和投资者平均年龄等进行了分析。实证研究结果表明,人口结构变化与股市之间关系密切。较为重要的结论有：储蓄人口占比的增加和接盘人口的增加对股市产生明显的正面推动,储蓄人口占比的减少和接盘人口的减少对股市产生明显的负面作用；老年人风险规避意愿强烈,因投资年限的缩短,风险承受能力亦下降,而当年轻一代人口较老年人明显减少时,股市将承受因老年人持股下降带来的较大负面压力；一般具有前少后多人口结构的国家其股市投资者平均年龄有下降趋势,相反具有前多后少人口结构的国家其股市投资者平均年龄有上升趋势；预计美国股市未来中期内将承受来自婴儿潮一代退休带来的压力,日本股市仍将承受来自日本人口直线减少带来的负面压力,韩国股市将面临人口结构拐点出现带来的压力,南非股市未来仍将持续向好。通过与国外对比,本文还对中国股市面临的压力进行了分析。相比国外中国股市由于股票供给的高速增长、房价增速过快造成X一代和婴儿潮一代投入股市资金有限、人口红利窗口面临关闭带来的生产要素价格的上涨、机构投资者发展缓慢、养老体系不健全等原因对中国股市造成了负面压力。对以上问题的解决有利于中国股市的健康发展,其中人口红利的减弱可以从提高劳动者技术水平、大力发展高新技术产业上弥补,即用“技术红利”弥补“人口红利”。
[Abstract]:The increase of the proportion of the elderly has brought great influence to the society and economy of all countries, and the change of population structure will cause the reaction of the financial market and the real economy. This paper is based on the most basic factor of influencing the stock market-the population factor. This paper discusses the impact of the change of population structure on the stock market. It is mainly carried out from two aspects: first, in the aspect of stock market fundamentals, the population structure has an impact on the stock market fundamentals through the influence of social economy, mainly because the demographic dividend boosts economic development. Second, the behavior of investors in the stock market, starting from the life cycle hypothesis, investors of different ages have different preferences for risk and investment returns, when the middle-aged population is significantly reduced, The stock market will be under great pressure. China is in a special period of population transition, the level of economic development is low, and the population is aging rapidly. The research on this issue has important theoretical and practical significance. The theoretical part introduces the theoretical transmission mechanism of the impact of demographic changes on the stock market, and finds the data to prove the theory, mainly from the life cycle hypothesis. Population dividend theory and population iterative model are developed in three aspects. Among them, the life cycle hypothesis mainly affects the behavior of investors, and demographic dividend affects the stock market by influencing the economy. The population iterative model provides us with a simple and clear tool to understand the relationship between population structure and asset returns. The empirical part selects the demographic change data of the United States, Japan, South Korea and South Africa and the stock market data of various countries. The correlation between the stock market price change and the population structure is demonstrated, and the behavior of investors, the number of investors, the change of investors' stock holdings and the average age of investors are analyzed respectively. The empirical results show that the demographic change is closely related to the stock market. The more important conclusions are: the increase of the proportion of saving population and the increase of the next market has a significant positive impact on the stock market. The decrease of the proportion of saving population and the decrease of the next stock market have a significant negative effect on the stock market; the elderly have a strong willingness to avoid risks, because of the shortening of the investment years, the risk bearing capacity is also reduced. When the younger generation has a significantly smaller population than the elderly, the stock market will bear the greater negative pressure brought about by the decline in the stock holdings of the elderly. Countries with a large population structure usually have a downward trend in the average age of stock market investors. On the contrary, stock market investors in countries with a population of more or less have an upward trend in average age; U.S. stocks are expected to come under pressure from baby boomers to retire in the medium term. Japanese stocks will continue to bear negative pressure from Japan's plummeting population, South Korean stocks will face pressure from the demographic inflection point, and South African stocks will continue to improve in the future. By comparing with foreign countries, this paper also analyzes the pressure on China's stock market. Compared with the rapid growth of stock supply in foreign countries, the rapid growth of house prices results in the limited investment of X generation and baby boom generation in stock market. The demographic dividend window is facing an increase in the price of factors of production brought about by the closure of the dividend window, the development of institutional investors is slow, and the pension system is not sound. The solution to the above problems is conducive to the healthy development of the Chinese stock market. The weakening of the population dividend can be made up by raising the technical level of the laborer and vigorously developing the high-tech industry, that is, using the "technical dividend" to make up for the "demographic dividend".
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.51;F224

【相似文献】