承销商与非承销商分析师盈利预测准确性比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 00:03

本文选题：承销商分析师　切入点：利益冲突　出处：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：证券分析师作为证券市场会计信息的采集者和投资信息的供给者，在证券市场上一直扮演着双重角色。理论上分析师应向社会提供无偏且准确的研究报告，而现实中，承销商分析师同时也为存在承销关系的客户提供服务。由于信息不对称的存在，分析师提供的研究报告往往成为广大投资者进行投资决策的基础和重要依据。客观准确的盈利预测信息能正确引导投资者，促进市场资源的优化配置；偏差较大的盈利预测信息会误导投资者，引起盲目投资，不利于证券市场的资源配置。本文试图研究当证券公司与目标公司存在承销关系时证券分析师对投资者的信托责任和对代理企业的责任两者之间的矛盾冲突表现的会不会更加激烈，，此时承销商分析师的利益选择又是怎样的。本文通过实证和规范研究相结合的研究方法，从委托代理理论出发，比较研究处于双重“委托——代理”关系之中的承销商分析师对目标公司的盈利预测和非承销商分析师对目标公司的盈利预测在准确性方面的差异。通过统计分析，非参数检验研究不同类型分析师提供的盈利预测准确性的差异；再对总体和配对样本进行回归分析，检验承销因素对于分析师盈利预测准确性的影响；利用经济学上的相关理论剖析承销商分析师盈利预测误差背后的利益驱动和行为动机。使广大投资者能更加科学、理性地认识分析师提供的研究报告的准确性和可靠性。研究发现，当分析师所属的证券公司是目标公司承销商时，该分析师所提供的盈利预测与实际数据间的误差更大，说明了证券市场上，作为理性经济人的承销商分析师在面临利益冲突时，会由于不独立的立场误导投资者；另外，本文研究还发现，相对于非承销商分析师而言，承销商分析师的盈利预测偏向于乐观，说明在利益驱动下的承销商分析师所提供的研究报告偏向于保护目标公司委托人的利益，投资者在做投资决策时应该意识到这种乐观性偏向，理性认识分析师所提供的盈利预测信息，对承销商分析师提供的研究报告要学会去伪存真，避免盲目投资，促进证券市场资源的合理流动。本文将证券市场上提供研究报告的分析师分为两种类型，从利益选择和行为动机方面分析承销商和非承销商分析师盈利预测准确性方面存在差异的原因，并给出经济学上的解释，是对传统意义上分类方法的一个突破；同时，本文研究了公司盈利波动对分析师盈利预测的影响，丰富和拓展了现有研究盈利预测准确性影响因素的文献；最后，本文从时间窗口角度细化研究结果，通过稳健性检验，加强模型的稳定性和可靠性。本文研究结论能对依靠分析师盈利预测报告进行投资的证券市场投资者起到借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:As a collector of accounting information and a supplier of investment information, securities analysts have always played a dual role in the securities market.In theory, analysts should provide unbiased and accurate research to society, while in reality underwriters also serve clients with underwriting relationships.Due to the existence of asymmetric information, the research report provided by analysts is often the basis and important basis for investors to make investment decisions.Objective and accurate profit forecast information can correctly guide investors and promote the optimal allocation of market resources, and the biased profit forecast information will mislead investors and cause blind investment, which is not conducive to the allocation of resources in the securities market.This paper attempts to study whether the conflict between the trust responsibility of securities analysts to investors and the liability of agency firms will be more intense when there is an underwriting relationship between the securities firm and the target company.At this time the underwriter analyst's benefit choice is also how.Based on the empirical and normative research methods, this paper starts from the principal-agent theory.A comparative study of the differences in the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of target companies between underwriters and non-underwriters in a dual principal-agent relationship is made.Through statistical analysis, non-parametric test is used to study the difference in the accuracy of earnings forecast provided by different types of analysts, and then regression analysis is carried out to test the effect of underwriting factors on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast.Based on the relevant theories in economics, this paper analyzes the profit driving and behavioral motivation behind the profit forecast error of underwriter analyst.So that the majority of investors can more scientific, rational understanding of the accuracy and reliability of the analysis provided by the report.The study found that when the securities firm to which the analyst belongs is the underwriter of the target company, the margin of error between the analyst's profit forecast and the actual data is greater, indicating that in the securities market,The underwriters, as rational agents, can mislead investors because of their non-independent positions when they face conflicts of interest. In addition, this paper also finds that, compared with non-underwriters,Underwriters' earnings forecasts tend to be optimistic, suggesting that the research reports provided by profit-driven underwriters tend to protect the interests of the clients of targeted companies.Investors should be aware of this optimistic bias when making investment decisions, rationally understand the profit forecast information provided by analysts, and learn to identify false things, preserve real things, and avoid blind investment in research reports provided by underwriters.To promote the rational flow of securities market resources.In this paper, the analysts who provide the research report in the securities market are divided into two types. The reasons for the differences in the accuracy of the profit forecast between the underwriters and the non-underwriters are analyzed from the aspects of profit choice and behavioral motivation.The economic explanation is a breakthrough to the traditional classification method. At the same time, this paper studies the influence of the company earnings fluctuation on the analyst profit forecast.It enriches and expands the existing literature on the factors influencing the accuracy of profit forecasting. Finally, this paper refines the research results from the angle of time window, and strengthens the stability and reliability of the model through robustness test.The conclusion of this paper can be used as a reference for investors in the securities market who rely on the analyst profit forecast report.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F830.91;F224

【相似文献】