铁矿石定价金融化及其策略研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 14:45

本文选题：铁矿石　切入点：定价金融化　出处：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2010年以来，国际矿业集团先后放弃铁矿石交易的长期协议定价机制，施行与国际铁矿石现货定价密切联系的短期定价方式，推动铁矿石定价机制向金融化方向快速过渡。铁矿石定价金融化加大了国际铁矿石价格波动，增加了中国钢企经营风险，压缩了钢企利润，强化了整个产业链上下游的价格波动，对中国宏观经济活动带来了重大影响。面对目前国际铁矿石定价金融化迅速发展的态势，深入探讨其形成原因及对我国铁矿石进口成本的影响，并在此基础上提出相关对策建议，对于我国维护铁矿石的贸易利益，促进钢铁行业健康发展具有重要现实意义，也是本文研究的主旨所在。全文除导论外共分五部分：第一部分为铁矿石国际供求格局与中国进口概况分析，主要从供求两方面对铁矿石国际格局进行客观剖析，并在此基础上，着重研究了中国近年来铁矿石进口情况，研究发现国际铁矿石交易市场总体上表现为供大于求，中国铁矿石进口依存度长期居高不下，在国际铁矿石定价金融化趋势下，铁矿石价格波动加剧将不利于中国钢企对进口铁矿石成本的控制，不利于中国钢铁行业稳定发展。第二部分是铁矿石定价机制演化历程与定价金融化的具体表现。该部分首先从历史角度对1981年以来铁矿石定价机制的演化轨迹进行了梳理，，继而重点探讨了近年来铁矿石定价金融化具体表现。文章认为演化历程主要分为两个阶段：1981-2010年长协定价与现货定价共存；2010年至今短期定价与现货定价混合。结合前述文献综述中理论界对金融化的定义，文章界定铁矿石定价金融化的具体表现为：由传统商品定价机制向指数定价机制转变；由商品市场向金融市场延伸；由实体主体向资本主体扩展。仅就国内铁矿石定价金融化现状而言，中国铁矿石定价金融化现象主要体现在铁矿石定价的指数化短期定价机制。第三部分集中研究铁矿石定价金融化的原因。该部分指出铁矿石定价金融化主要原因是铁矿石自身金融性的体现，垄断矿商的倾力助推以及金融资本的利益驱动。第四部分以铁矿石价格指数化为例，在深入研究国内外各类铁矿石价格指数编制机理、价格波动及其相关性的基础上，判断对国际铁矿石交易价格最具影响的价格指数，并就其对我国铁矿石进口成本的影响进行了实证分析。文中得出结论：普氏指数对其他指数的影响力最大，它的波动可以解释TSI指数和MBIO指数的波动，TSI指数的影响力次之，即TSI指数可以解释MBIO指数，由此得出，三种影响力关系为：普氏指数TSI指数MBIO指数。将普氏指数与CIOPI和Mysteel-IpiC进行相关性比较，得出Mysteel-IpiC的变动更能被普氏指数解释。最后采用普氏指数来测算铁矿石定价金融化对中国铁矿石进口成本的影响，并得出在过去的一年中其影响是负面的。第五部分是结论，主要从宏观、中观及微观三大层面对我国如何应对铁矿石定价金融化提出了相关对策建议。文章认为宏观政府层面应制定政策促进“走出去”战略，建立健全铁矿石金融市场和金融资本参与机制；中观层面要求中国钢铁协会等机构应不遗余力地缩短CIOPI编制时间，扩大价格收集渠道，科学化CIOPI价格计算，加大媒体独立第三方参与；微观层面要求钢企应进行充分的自我评估，选择合适的铁矿石价格指数，培养、储备复合型管理人才。
[Abstract]:Since 2010 , the international mining group has given up the long - term agreement pricing mechanism of iron ore transactions , and put into effect a short - term pricing way that is closely related to the current pricing of international iron ore . The pricing of iron ore increases the price fluctuation of international iron ore , increases the profit of steel enterprise , strengthens the price fluctuation of the whole industry chain , and puts forward relevant countermeasures . It is of great practical significance to maintain the trade interests of iron ore in our country and promote the healthy development of iron and steel industry .

The full text is divided into five parts except the introduction theory :

The first part is divided into the international supply and demand pattern of iron ore and the analysis of China ' s import profile . On the basis of this , the paper focuses on the objective analysis of the international pattern of iron ore from two aspects : supply and demand .

The second part is the evolution course of the iron ore pricing mechanism and the concrete performance of pricing finance . The part firstly sorts out the evolution track of the iron ore pricing mechanism since 1981 from the historical perspective , and then focuses on the concrete performance of the pricing of iron ore in recent years .
According to the definition of the theory circle in the literature review , the article defines the concrete performance of the pricing of iron ore : the transition from the traditional commodity pricing mechanism to the index pricing mechanism ;
extending from commodity markets to financial markets ;
According to the current situation of domestic iron ore pricing , China ' s iron ore pricing financial phenomenon mainly embodies the exponential short - term pricing mechanism of iron ore pricing .

The third part focuses on the reasons for the finalisation of iron ore pricing . This part points out that the main reason for the pricing of iron ore is the reflection of the financial nature of iron ore , the inclination of monopoly miners and the interest drive of financial capital .

In the fourth part , the price index of iron ore price index is taken as an example . Based on the study of the mechanism , price fluctuation and its correlation of the price index of iron ore at home and abroad , it is concluded that the influence of the price index and MBIO index on the international iron ore trade price can be explained .

The fifth part is the conclusion , mainly from the macro , meso and micro three levels to the country how to deal with the iron ore pricing finance put forward the relevant countermeasure suggestion . The article thinks that the macro government level should formulate the policy to promote the " go out " strategy , establish and improve the financial market and financial capital participation mechanism of iron ore ;
At the meso level , Chinese steel associations and other institutions should spare no effort to shorten CIOPI preparation time , expand the channel of price collection , scientific CIOPI price calculation , and increase the participation of independent third parties of the media ;
The micro level requires the steel enterprise to conduct a full self - assessment , select the appropriate price index of iron ore , cultivate and reserve compound management talent .

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.1;F832.5

【参考文献】