基于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森假说的人民币实际汇率问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 07:41

本文选题：巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说　切入点：人民币实际汇率　出处：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以后,人民币汇率以1993年为分界线呈现出了先贬后升的趋势,尤其是2005-2011年出现了连续七年的单边升值态势。当前,市场对于人民币汇率仍存在着较强的升值预期。这种升值预期主要来自于两个方面：一方面是以美国为首的一些国家和国际机构的外部升值压力；另一方面是我国经济持续快速增长的内在推动力。鉴于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说正是反映此内在动因的重要理论,因此,文章选择从巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的视角来研究人民币实际汇率的相关问题。首先,文章从巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的简介出发,揭示了其产生和发展的理论基础,概括总结了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的内容、逻辑体系和主要结论。其次,文章选取了我国和美国1978-2010年长达33年间的数据,运用实证分析法检验了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说在我国的适用性,通过协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等多种计量经济学方法最终得出了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说在我国成立的结论。再次,根据巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说揭示的经济增长与汇率变动之间的关系,联系我国当前的实际情况,文章做出了人民币汇率具有长期升值趋势的预测,并对汇率升值的利弊进行了详尽地分析。最后,文章指出,面对人民币汇率的长期升值压力,我国应进一步加快人民币汇率制度改革,并对人民币汇率制度改革的目标、策略和配套措施提出了相应的政策建议。随着经济全球化趋势的加速、经济货币化程度的提高和中国开放程度的不断加深,人民币汇率对中国经济内外均衡的重要性日渐增强,国民经济的各方面都与汇率有着紧密的联系。此外,由于中国已成为全球第二大经济体,且贸易大国的地位日益稳固,人民币汇率的变动也自然会牵动全球主要经济体的敏感神经。汇率的波动影响到经济的方方面面,如贸易收支、价格水平、资本流动、外汇储备、财政税收、收入分配以及国际经济关系等,关系到国民经济的整体发展,因此对于汇率的研究具有十分重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the RMB exchange rate has shown a tendency of first depreciation and then rising with 1993 as the dividing line, especially the trend of unilateral appreciation for seven consecutive years from 2005 to 2011.At present, the market for the RMB exchange rate still has a strong appreciation expectations.This appreciation expectation mainly comes from two aspects: on the one hand, the external appreciation pressure of some countries and international institutions led by the United States; on the other hand, it is the internal driving force of sustained and rapid economic growth of our country.Since the Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis is an important theory reflecting this internal motivation, this paper chooses to study the relevant issues of RMB real exchange rate from the perspective of Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis.Firstly, from the brief introduction of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, this paper reveals the theoretical basis of its emergence and development, and summarizes the content, logic system and main conclusions of the Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis.Secondly, the paper selects the data of China and the United States from 1978 to 2010, and tests the applicability of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in China by empirical analysis. The pulse response function is tested by cointegration test.Some econometrics methods such as variance decomposition finally draw the conclusion that Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is established in China.Thirdly, according to the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate change revealed by Barassa-Samuelson hypothesis, and considering the current situation in China, this paper makes a prediction that the RMB exchange rate has a long-term appreciation trend.The advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate appreciation are analyzed in detail.Finally, the paper points out that in the face of the pressure of long-term appreciation of RMB exchange rate, China should further accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate system, and put forward corresponding policy suggestions on the goal, strategy and supporting measures of RMB exchange rate system reform.With the acceleration of the trend of economic globalization, the improvement of the degree of economic monetization and the deepening of China's opening up, the importance of RMB exchange rate to the internal and external equilibrium of China's economy is increasing day by day.All aspects of the national economy are closely related to the exchange rate.Moreover, as China has become the world's second-largest economy and a trading power is becoming increasingly strong, a move in the yuan's exchange rate naturally affects the sensitive nerves of the world's major economies.The fluctuation of exchange rate affects all aspects of the economy, such as trade balance, price level, capital flow, foreign exchange reserve, finance and taxation, income distribution and international economic relations.Therefore, the study of exchange rate is of great significance.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.52;F224

【参考文献】