我国地方政府债发行规模适度性分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 15:31

本文选题：地方政府债 + 发行规模　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文首先分析了中国地方政府债的现状，研究了地方政府债的需求规模以及信用风险。在此基础上，运用回归模型预测地方政府可支配收入，并运用KMV模型分析地方政府债的违约概率，从而对地方政府债整体发行规模的适度性进行判断，得出以下结论：从整体上来说，我国2009年至2011年发行的地方政府债规模未达到最优规模，尚有发债空间，2012年至2014年地方政府债整体违约的概率不大，信用风险处于可控范围内。之后，本文对各地区地方政府债的信用状况进行分析，，研究各地区地方政府偿债能力对地方政府债整体规模适度性的影响，研究结果表明：分地区来看，我国各个地区的地方政府债信用风险不同，偿债能力较强的地区地方政府债发行规模不够，存在增发空间，而偿债能力较弱的地区可能存在地方政府债违约风险；我国所有地方政府债中有3720亿元存在信用违约风险，占全部地方政府债总额的62%。根据地方政府债发行规模适度性研究的结论，本文对地方政府债的长期规范发展提供了一些建议。
[Abstract]:This paper first analyzes the current situation of local government debt in China, and studies the demand scale and credit risk of local government debt.On this basis, the regression model is used to predict the disposable income of the local government, and the KMV model is used to analyze the probability of default of the local government debt, so as to judge the appropriateness of the overall issuing scale of the local government debt.The conclusions are as follows: on the whole, the local government debt issued from 2009 to 2011 has not reached the optimal scale, and there is still room for issuing bonds. The probability of local government bonds defaulting from 2012 to 2014 is small, and the credit risk is under control.After that, this paper analyzes the credit status of local government debt in various regions, and studies the influence of the local government's solvency on the overall scale of local government debt. The results show that: from a regional point of view,The credit risk of local government debt is different in different regions of our country, the local government debt issuance scale is not enough in the region with strong solvency, and there is space for additional issuance, while the local government debt default risk may exist in the region with weak solvency.372 billion yuan of all local government debt in China has the risk of credit default, accounting for 62% of the total amount of local government debt.Based on the conclusion of the research on the appropriateness of local government debt issuance, this paper provides some suggestions for the long-term development of local government debt.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F812.5

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