市盈率和净资产收益率的投资决策有效性研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 14:39

本文选题：投资价值 + 费森-奥尔森模型　；参考：《华北电力大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：在股权分置改革完成后，中国内地资本市场上的流通股与非流通股被人为的割裂开来，产业资本将和金融资本同场博弈。金融风暴的突然袭击导致全球的资本市场与实体经济都有大幅下跌，使得前期的价值投资理念不能很好的为资本市场服务，在这样的大背景下，对上市公司价值评估的研究有着重要的意义。本文的研究数据主要来自北京工商大学的锐思数据库。论文的研究内容分为六章，第一章绪论，详细介绍了文章研究的背景、研究问题、研究目的和研究意义。第二章阐述基本理论，首先介绍了相关的国内外研究现状，并对价值投资模型的发展做了详细的描述，自然地引出了费森-奥尔森估值模型。第三章模型推导与研究假设，从费森—奥尔森基本模型的介绍推导至研究所应用的理论公式，同时设定本文的三个研究假设，并在这一章设计了检验研究假设的路径，明确了本文的研究目标。第四章是数据整理与统计处理。首先介绍了本文的研究方法，，其次说明了数据样本的来源、选样原则、样本量分析，并对其进行了描述性统计。第五章是描述性统计研究结果与分析，对数据处理结果进行充分的解释，并进行比较分析。第六章结论与展望，概括研究结论，并分析本研究的局限性及可进行的后续研究，并说明了本文研究的缺陷与不足以及需要改进的地方。最后是参考文献。文章的研究否定了假设一：“未来净资产收益率高则市盈率就高”，但肯定了假设二和假设三：“当期净资产收益率高则市净率高”以及“市盈率高则未来盈余增长率就高”。文章主要从财务指标的形成机制与其内在联系方面进行分析，以期能在价值投资理念和投资方法上提供新的参考。
[Abstract]:After the reform of split share structure is completed, the tradable shares and non-tradable shares in the capital market of mainland China are artificially separated, and the industrial capital and the financial capital will compete in the same field.The sudden attack of the financial turmoil has led to a sharp decline in the global capital market and the real economy, which has made the early value investment concept not very good for the capital market. Under such a background,It is of great significance to study the valuation of listed companies.The data of this paper mainly come from the database of Reese of Beijing Industrial and Commercial University.The research content is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, problems, purpose and significance of the research in detail.The second chapter describes the basic theory, first introduces the domestic and foreign research status, and the development of the value investment model is described in detail, and naturally leads to the Fesson-Olson valuation model.The third chapter deduces the model and hypotheses, from the introduction of Fesson-Olson 's basic model to the theoretical formula applied by the research institute, and sets up the three research hypotheses in this paper, and designs the path to test the research hypotheses in this chapter.The research goal of this paper is clarified.The fourth chapter is data collation and statistical processing.This paper first introduces the research method of this paper, then explains the source of the data sample, sample selection principle, sample size analysis, and carries out descriptive statistics.The fifth chapter is descriptive statistical research results and analysis, data processing results are fully explained, and comparative analysis.In the sixth chapter, the conclusion and prospect of the research are summarized, and the limitations of this study and the possible follow-up studies are analyzed. The defects and shortcomings of this study and the areas for improvement are also explained.The last is a reference.The research in this paper negates hypothesis one: "if the future net asset return rate is high, the price / earnings ratio is high", but affirms the hypothesis two and three: "the current net asset return rate is high, the price-to-book ratio is high" and "the future earnings growth rate is high if the P / E ratio is high".This paper mainly analyzes the forming mechanism of financial index and its internal relation, in order to provide new reference on the idea of value investment and investment method.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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