中国证券分析师的羊群行为和市场反应

发布时间：2018-04-18 12:21

本文选题：证券分析师 + 羊群行为　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国证券市场的发展，卖方分析师已经成为了市场中重要的组成部分。由于在中国，分析师的研究报告几乎都是无偿向大众公开的，机构投资者和个人投资者都可能从证券分析师的盈利预测中获得有价值的信息。然而，，普遍存在的“羊群行为”可能会降低盈利预测的信息含量。本文利用中国市场的分析师报告数据，主要研究了分析师的自身特性和“羊群行为”的倾向性之间的联系以及市场对分析师“羊群行为”的反应。本文将分析师的盈利预测分成了“跟随”和“不跟随”两个类别，发现（1）享有更高声誉和具有更高历史预测准确性的分析师出现“羊群行为”的倾向性更低。（2）具有更高历史预测准确性的分析师的盈利预测更容易引起他人的跟随。（3）市场会分辨“跟随”和“不跟随”的盈利预测，对于“跟随”的盈利预测反应较小。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's securities market, seller analysts have become an important part of the market.Since analysts' research reports in China are almost always made public for free, both institutional and individual investors are likely to get valuable information from the earnings forecasts of securities analysts.However, widespread herding may reduce the information content of earnings forecasts.This paper studies the relationship between the characteristics of the analyst and the tendency of herding behavior and the reaction of the market to the herding behavior of the analyst.This article divides analysts' earnings forecasts into "follow" and "don't follow" categories.Find that analysts with higher reputations and higher historical forecasting accuracy have a lower tendency to "herd behavior". 2) analysts with higher historical forecasting accuracy are more likely to follow others in their earnings forecastsThe market will distinguish between "follow" and "do not follow" earnings forecasts,There is less reaction to the "follow" earnings forecast.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

【共引文献】