基于EVA方法的我国上市证券公司业绩评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 06:27

本文选题：EVA + 上市证券公司　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：相比商业银行等其他金融机构,我国证券公司的成立要晚得多,但是证券公司的发展却很迅猛,并且极大地推动了证券市场的建设和融资方式比例的调整。由于经营对象的特殊性,证券公司面临着巨大的风险,在业务上也受到国外国内金融同业者的激烈竞争。因此基于证券公司的重要性和面临的风险以及激烈竞争,证券公司只有采用合适的业绩评价方法,全面真实地评价自身经营业绩,找出制约业绩提高的影响因素,不断增强自身实力,才能保证自身和行业的良性发展。对于上市证券公司而言,业绩评价还对公司的经营者、股东和投资者具有非常重要的意义,利益相关者的相互制衡会推动现代公司治理的建设。然而,我国的业绩评价起步较晚,近年来国内对证券公司的业绩研究方法多采用传统的回归方程、数据包络DEA方法；在研究内容上也多为单公司或者单方面影响因素,如股权结构、公司治理、资本结构等。这样在方法和内容上都很难真实完整的评价证券公司的业绩,因此得出的相关结论值得商榷。基于以上原因,本文选择上市证券公司为研究对象,利用实证方法对其进行业绩评价,并对上市证券公司业绩的影响因素进行了分析。本文第一部分是研究背景和意义,在评述了国内外相关文献之后,对文章写作内容进行了安排,并指出可能的创新点。本文第二部分选择并评析了四种应用较多的业绩评价方法：杜邦分析法、平衡计分卡法、因子分析法和EVA业绩评价法,经过比较,发现EVA业绩法存在的三大优点能更好的结合上市证券公司实际,反映其业绩,即：考虑了股东财富,真实全面的反映了公司经营业绩；更加重视公司的可持续发展能力；起到较好的激励作用。然后根据上市证券公司的特点建立了EVA指标体系,包括EVA、EVA回报率和每股EVA,并对计算时涉及会计调整、税后净经营利润、资本总额和加权平均资本成本率等进行了确定。第三部分是2010年我国上市证券公司业绩评价的实证分析,为了能准确评价上市证券公司,本文尽可能多的选取了我国上市证券公司的样本年报,总共得到2010年的14家上市公司的样本,然后利用EVA指标体系及其计算公式评价了这些上市证券公司。结果表明2010年中信证券的经营业绩最好,且优势明显,国元证券排名垫底,并且计算结果为负,不但没能为股东创造财富,反而在毁灭股东投入的资本价值。本部分的结尾对EVA业绩评价结果和杜邦分析结果进行了比较,发现两种评价方法得出的结论并不完全一致,因为两种评价方法在计算时所侧重的指标不同：EVA方法更加注重权益资本的价值创造能力,更能揭示深层次的因素。第四部分是对上市证券公司业绩影响因素的实证分析,影响上市证券公司业绩的因素包括外部因素和内部因素。外部因素是所有公司无法控制、都需要面对的客观环境变量,包括宏观经济、国家政策和国际因素。外部因素对我国上市证券公司EVA的影响途径有两个：一是直接影响证券公司本身,二是通过影响证券市场尤其是股票市场影响证券公司。本文分析了2005年至2010年外部因素的变化,然后选取宏源证券和中信证券并计算了两家公司期间的业绩表现,发现外部因素对其业绩影响显著。内部因素包括财务因素和非财务因素,本文选取了盈利能力、成本管理能力、股东权益、业务创新能力、公司治理能力和人力资源等6个方面的8个指标(净资产收益率、总资产报酬率、成本控制能力、股东权益比率、传统业务收入比、高管人均薪酬、前5大股东持股比例、硕士学位员工占比),并与EVA回报率(REVA)建立了回归方程,就各指标影响的经济意义做了说明。为更加清晰的说明内部因素的影响,本部分结尾利用业绩较好的中信证券和业绩较差的太平洋证券进行了对比。第五部分是文章的结尾部分,总结了本文分析的结论,同时也指出了本文研究的局限性。首先是EVA方法本身的局限性：EVA方法需要对会计项目进行大量的调整,这在一定程度上会增加其运算复杂性和难度。为此,本文已尽可能的选取合适的会计调整保证计算精度。其次,由于受数据资料可得性限制,本文研究在数据来源上存在局限性：在本文的写作过程中,各上市证券公司2011年经审计的年报还未正式对外公布,本文只能利用了2010年的上市证券公司经审计的年报,这样在研究的时间上相对滞后了一年,未能反映2011年的新情况。同时证券行业经营业绩的影响因素众多,本文所罗列的也仅是几种最基本的外部和内部因素,其它诸如公司规模、资产的管理能力、资本比例等因素都会影响上市证券公司的业绩,本文未能反映这些因素的影响。本文在研究方法和内容上力求突破,主要的可能创新点有： 1.在EVA方法和传统评价方法对比的时候,利用了理论和实证均对比的方法,在进行实证对比时,利用各证券公司的指标排名情况做比较,消除了不同方法和概念之间的差异。 2.在分析上市证券公司EVA的影响因素时,利用纵向比较与宏观分析相结合的方式研究了外部因素对证券公司业绩的影响；利用Eviews软件对相关影响因素的指标与REVA建立回归方程的方式研究了内部因素对证券公司业绩的影响。当然由于样本的限制,对变量的选取有限,对方程的解释也仅停留在经济意义层面。本文对我国上市证券公司的经营业绩进行评价只是一次尝试,以期研究结论能够对整个证券行业有一定参考价值。
[Abstract]:Compared with other financial institutions such as commercial banks, the establishment of securities companies in China is much later, but the development of securities companies is very rapid, and it has greatly promoted the construction of the securities market and the adjustment of the proportion of financing methods. Therefore, based on the importance and the risks faced by the securities companies and the fierce competition, the securities companies only adopt the appropriate performance evaluation methods, fully and truly evaluate their own business performance, find the influencing factors that restrict the performance improvement, and strengthen their own strength to ensure the virtuous of their own and the industry. Development. For listed securities companies, performance evaluation is also of great significance to the operators, shareholders and investors of the company. The mutual balance of stakeholders will promote the construction of modern corporate governance.
However, the performance evaluation of our country started relatively late. In recent years, the traditional regression equation and data envelopment DEA method are used in the research methods for the performance of securities companies in China, and the research content is also a single company or unilateral influence factors, such as ownership structure, corporate governance, capital based structure and so on. So it is difficult to be true in the method and content. A complete evaluation of the performance of a securities firm is therefore questionable.
Based on the above reasons, this paper selects listed securities companies as the research object, uses empirical methods to evaluate their performance, and analyzes the influencing factors of the performance of listed securities companies.
The first part of this paper is the background and significance of the study. After reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, the article arranges the contents of the article and points out the possible innovations.
The second part of this paper selects and evaluates four kinds of performance evaluation methods which are more applied: DuPont analysis, balanced scorecard, factor analysis and EVA performance evaluation. After comparison, it is found that the three advantages of EVA performance method can better combine the listed securities companies' reality and reflect their performance, that is, the wealth of shareholders is considered and the real whole is considered. The surface reflects the performance of the company, pays more attention to the ability of the company's sustainable development, and plays a better incentive role. Then, the EVA index system is set up based on the characteristics of listed securities companies, including EVA, EVA return and EVA per share, and the accounting adjustment, net operating profit after tax, total capital and weighted average capital are involved in the calculation. The cost rate is determined.
The third part is an empirical analysis of the performance evaluation of listed securities companies in China in 2010. In order to evaluate the listed securities companies accurately, the sample annual report of listed securities companies in China is selected as much as possible, and the samples of 14 Listed Companies in 2010 are obtained. Then the EVA index system and its calculation formula are used to evaluate these listed companies. Securities company. The results show that in 2010, CITIC Securities had the best performance and obvious advantages. The national securities ranking was bottom, and the results were negative. Not only did it fail to create wealth for the shareholders, but destroyed the capital value of the shareholders. At the end of this part, the results of EVA performance evaluation and DuPont analysis were compared, and two found that the results of the DuPont analysis were compared. The conclusion of the evaluation method is not exactly the same, because the two evaluation methods are different in the calculation. The EVA method pays more attention to the value creation ability of the equity capital, and more can reveal the deep factors.
The fourth part is an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the performance of listed securities companies. The factors affecting the performance of listed securities companies include external factors and internal factors. External factors are the objective environment variables that all companies can not control, including macroeconomic, national policies and international factors. External factors are on the market of China. There are two ways of influencing the voucher company EVA: one is directly affecting the securities company itself, and the two is by affecting the securities market, especially the stock market. This paper analyzes the changes of the external factors from 2005 to 2010, then selects Hongyuan securities and CITIC Securities and calculates the performance of the two companies during the period, and finds out the external performance. Factors have significant impact on its performance. The internal factors include financial factors and non financial factors. This paper selects 8 indicators (net asset returns, total asset returns, cost control, shareholder equity ratio, equity ratio), and 6 indicators of profitability, cost management ability, shareholders' equity, business innovation ability, corporate governance capacity and human resources. The income ratio of the system, the per capita salary, the top 5 shareholding ratio, the master's degree employee ratio, and the return rate of the EVA (REVA) set up a regression equation to explain the economic significance of the impact of each index. In order to make a clearer explanation of the influence of internal factors, this part ends with the better performance of CITIC Securities and the poor performance. Pingyang securities were compared.
The fifth part is the end of the article, summarizes the conclusion of the analysis, and also points out the limitations of this study. First, the limitations of the EVA method itself: the EVA method needs a large amount of adjustment to the accounting project, which will increase its complexity and difficulty to a certain extent. Therefore, this article has been selected as possible. The appropriate accounting adjustment ensures the accuracy of the calculation. Secondly, due to the limitation of data availability, this paper studies the limitations of the data sources. In this paper, the annual reports of the listed securities companies in 2011 have not been officially announced. This paper can only use the annual audit annual report of the listed securities companies in 2010, which can only be used in this paper. There is a relative lag of one year in the study time, which fails to reflect the new situation in 2011. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the operating performance of the securities industry. This article lists only a few of the most basic external and internal factors, and other factors such as the size of the company, the management ability of the assets, the proportion of capital and so on, will affect the listed securities companies. Performance, this article fails to reflect the influence of these factors.
In this paper, we strive to break through the research methods and contents.
1. when comparing the EVA method with the traditional evaluation method, the comparison between the theory and the empirical method is used. In the case of empirical comparison, the comparison between the index ranking of various securities companies has been made to eliminate the differences between the different methods and concepts.
2. when analyzing the influencing factors of the listed securities company EVA, the influence of external factors on the performance of securities companies is studied by the combination of the longitudinal comparison and macro analysis. The influence of the internal factors on the performance of the securities companies is studied by using the Eviews software to establish the regression equation of the related factors and REVA. In terms of sample restriction, the selection of variables is limited, and the interpretation of equations is only at the economic level.
This paper is just an attempt to evaluate the performance of listed securities companies in China, so as to provide some reference for the whole securities industry.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

【参考文献】