股利政策与公司价值相关性检验

发布时间：2018-05-07 06:28

本文选题：股利政策 + 现金股利　；参考：《吉林大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：股利政策作为组织和安排上市公司合理资本结构的主要决策之一，一方面反映了上市公司对其股权持有人的应得报酬的必要支付状况，另一方面也是上市公司向市场传达信息，寻求市场反馈的一种有效手段。以往的研究表明，大多数上市公司更倾向于选择现金形式的股利政策，且该股利政策在缓解公司管理层与股东之间的矛盾方面卓有成效。然而，在当今的市场条件下股利政策往往成为判断公司价值以及公司未来发展趋势的主要标准之一。在这种情况下，股利政策的选择或者现金股利派发的改变不仅仅简单取决于上市公司管理层与股东层之间的博弈，而更应该反映市场对公司价值判断。本文集中研究上市公司现金股利变动与上市公司价值之间的相关性，一方面确定上市公司在确定公司股利政策调整是否参考了公司价值相关要素，验证上市公司管理层通过股利政策向市场传递信息进而影响市场选择行为的倾向；另一方面则判定股利政策是否反向地决定了上市公司的价值，真实作为一种信息的反馈形式出现在投资者的投资视野中。通过这两个方面的研究，本文将获得我国上市公司价值与股利政策调整之间相关性的经验结论，一方面验证经典金融理论在中国市场的成立性，另一方面提供反映我国资本市场基本特征的事实，为我国投资者合理甄别和判定上市公司价值奠定基础。依据研究思路和研究目的，本文以2008年至2010年间所有发放现金股利的上市公司为研究样本，在控制相关变量影响的前提下，运用面板数据模型分别测度上市公司价值对上市公司现金股利派发策略的影响以及上市公司现金股利调整对上市公司价值的影响效应。在总结和整理以往理论和实证研究结果的基础上，本文实证模型所获结果显示，上市公司在股利政策选择时，公司盈利状况是其考虑股利发放额度的主要参考之一，当然这一过程中公司内部管理层也会依据股利政策的稳定性和持续性对股利政策进行微调；且从部分价值指标的回归结果来看，上市公司明显具有向外部传递价值信息的倾向，而这些价值信息最终会以股利的途径传递给市场投资者。上市公司股利政策对公司价值变动具有一定的解释能力，虽然部分指标的回归系数在不同模型下呈现差异化的特征，但是股利政策对公司价值变动具有综合影响，而这种影响既表现为股利政策推动市场投票更新市场对公司的价值认定，同时也会因股利政策支付改变人们对上市公司内在价值的直接判定，两个方向的作用最终会以综合影响反映在公司各项价值指标中。当然，股利政策与公司价值相关性本身就是一个内生性的问题，因为上市公司可能通过股利政策向市场传递信息，进而影响市场投资者对公司价值的认定，而市场投资者的选择行为又会修正公司内部人对股利政策的选择，两者处于一个共生和共变的相互影响结构中。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is one of the main decisions to organize and arrange the reasonable capital structure of listed companies. On the one hand, it reflects the necessary payment status of the listed companies to their equity holders, on the other hand, it is also an effective means for the listed companies to convey information to the market and seek market feedback. The city company is more inclined to choose the dividend policy in the form of cash, and the dividend policy is effective in alleviating the contradiction between the company management and the shareholders. However, under the current market conditions, the dividend policy is often one of the main criteria to judge the company's value and the future trend of the company. In this case, the dividend policy is a dividend policy. The change of choice or cash dividend distribution depends not only on the game between the management of the listed companies and the shareholders' level, but also to reflect the value judgment of the market to the company.
This paper focuses on the correlation between the cash dividend changes of the listed companies and the value of listed companies. On the one hand, determine whether the listed companies can determine whether the company's dividend policy is adjusted to the relevant elements of the company value, and verify the tendency of the listed company management to pass the dividend policy to the market and then influence the market choice behavior. On the one hand, it determines whether the dividend policy determines the value of the listed company in reverse, and the true as a feedback form of information appears in the investor's investment vision. Through the study of these two aspects, this paper will obtain the empirical conclusion of the correlation between the value of listed companies and the adjustment of dividend policy in our country. On the one hand, the classic gold will be verified. On the other hand, it provides the basic characteristics of China's capital market, which lays the foundation for Chinese investors to discriminate and judge the value of the listed companies.
According to the research ideas and research purposes, this paper takes all the listed companies which issued cash dividends from 2008 to 2010 as the research samples. On the premise of controlling the influence of related variables, this paper uses panel data model to measure the influence of listed company value on the cash dividend policy of listed companies and the adjustment of cash dividend of listed companies. On the basis of summing up and sorting out the previous theoretical and empirical research results, the results of this empirical model show that the company's profit status is one of the main references for the dividend distribution of the listed company in the choice of dividend policy, and the internal management of the company will also be based on the stock. The stability and sustainability of the policy on dividend policy made a slight adjustment to the dividend policy; and from the regression results of some value indicators, the listed companies obviously have the tendency to transfer value information to the outside, and the value information will be transferred to the market investors by the way of dividend. Although the regression coefficient of some indexes is different in different models, the dividend policy has a comprehensive effect on the change of corporate value, which is not only shown as a dividend policy to promote the market value of the market to the company, but also to change the people's right due to the payment of the dividend policy. The direct determination of the intrinsic value of a city company, the role of the two directions will eventually be reflected in the value of the company in a comprehensive way. Of course, the relevance of the dividend policy and the company value itself is an endogenous problem, because the listed companies may transfer information to the market through the dividend policy, and then influence the market investors to the company. The value is identified, and the choice behavior of the market investor will choose the insider's dividend policy in the Corrections Corporation. The two are in a symbiotic and covariant structure of mutual influence.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

【参考文献】