基于利益相关者的地方政府债务风险及其治理研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 19:06

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 风险治理　；参考：《辽宁工程技术大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：地方政府债务风险治理是中国现阶段经济领域备受关注的焦点问题.在国家展开新一轮大规模地方债治理形势下,针对中国地方政府债务透明度差、隐蔽性强、难以有效治理的现状,基于利益相关者社会网络视角,研究地方政府债务利益相关者系统耦合机理及相互作用关系,找出地方政府债务难以治理的“症结”,并对症下药,是理论与实践函待解决的问题.论文在利益相关者概念框架下,沿着“辨识分类—影响因素—形成机理—动态评价—治理措施”的逻辑主线对地方政府债务风险治理进行研究.得到如下研究成果：地方政府债务利益相关者辨识与影响度评价研究.界定地方政府债务利益相关者内涵,根据地方政府债务举债、用债、偿债运行链条,识别债务利益相关者,通过对债务利益相关者影响度进行调查分析,将债务利益相关者划分为核心型、次核心型、支持型、边缘型四类,并验证分类效果.地方政府债务利益相关者社会网络关系模型研究.运用社会网络分析方法,得到地方政府债务利益相关者的测度指标,构建债务利益相关者网络关系模型.从网络结构性、网络凝聚性、网络行动人对等性、网络互惠性方面,对债务利益相关者网络结构特征进行分析,得到债务利益相关者系统耦合机理及相互作用关系,揭示地方政府债务利益相关者网络结构特征.利益相关者视角的地方政府债务风险成因及演化路径研究.基于系统动力学和经济社会学理论,从债务利益相关者利益驱动层面、激励约束层面、网络结构层面、信息博弈层面分析债务风险生成机理,揭示债务风险形成的关键因素是：利益相关者经济利益驱动、激励约束机制扭曲、网络结构非协调互构、信息博弈失衡；分析债务风险传导关键因素,进而揭示地方政府债务风险传导路径及与宏观风险的传导效应.基于利益相关者的RS-SVM地方政府债务风险评估研究.根据利益相关者概念框架,构建“举债-用债-偿债-影响”的债务风险评估指标体系；构建RS-SVM地方政府债务风险评估模型,对辽宁14个地市债务风险进行实证评估及动态预测.对RS-SVM模型进行有效性和可推广性评价.基于利益相关者的地方政府债务风险治理研究.根据地方政府债务风险形成机理,提出债务风险“轻警、中警、重警”分类治理模式；建立债务利益相关者“核心-关联性”约束监督机制,提出地方政府债务风险治理具体措施,为地方政府债务风险治理提供决策依据.
[Abstract]:Local government debt risk management is the focus of attention in China's current economic field. Under the situation of a new round of large-scale local debt governance, aiming at the situation that the local government debt in China is poor in transparency, strong concealment and difficult to govern effectively, it is based on the perspective of social network of stakeholders. It is a problem to be solved in theory and practice to study the system coupling mechanism and interaction relationship of local government debt stakeholders, to find out the "crux" of local government debt that is difficult to manage, and to solve the problem. Under the frame of stakeholder concept, this paper studies the governance of local government debt risk along the logical main line of "identifying classification, influencing factors, forming mechanism, dynamic evaluation and governance measures". The research results are as follows: local government debt stakeholders identification and impact evaluation. Define the connotation of local government debt stakeholders, according to the local government debt borrowing, using debt, debt service running chain, identify debt stakeholders, through the debt stakeholders impact degree of investigation and analysis, The debt stakeholders are divided into four categories: core type, subcore type, support type and edge type, and the classification effect is verified. A study on the relationship between local government debt stakeholders and social networks. By using the method of social network analysis, the measurement index of local government debt stakeholders is obtained, and the network relationship model of debt stakeholders is constructed. From the aspects of network structure, network agglomeration, network operator reciprocity and network reciprocity, the network structure characteristics of debt stakeholders are analyzed, and the coupling mechanism and interaction relationship of debt stakeholders system are obtained. This paper reveals the network characteristics of local government debt stakeholders. Research on the causes and Evolution path of Local Government debt risk from the Perspective of stakeholders. Based on the theory of system dynamics and economic sociology, this paper analyzes the mechanism of debt risk generation from the level of interest driven by debt stakeholders, incentive and constraint level, network structure level, information game level. The key factors of debt risk formation are revealed as follows: stakeholders' economic interest driven, incentive and constraint mechanism distorted, network structure uncoordinated, information game imbalance, and debt risk transmission key factors analyzed. Then it reveals the transmission path of local government debt risk and its transmission effect with macro risk. Research on RS-SVM Local Government debt risk Assessment based on stakeholders. According to the concept framework of stakeholders, the index system of debt risk assessment is constructed, and the RS-SVM local government debt risk assessment model is constructed. The debt risk of 14 cities in Liaoning is evaluated and dynamically forecasted. The validity and extensibility of RS-SVM model are evaluated. Research on Governance of Local Government debt risk based on stakeholders. According to the formation mechanism of local government debt risk, this paper puts forward the classified governance model of debt risk, such as "light police, middle police, heavy alarm", and establishes the constraint supervision mechanism of debt stakeholders "core-relevance". The concrete measures of local government debt risk management are put forward to provide decision basis for local government debt risk management.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.5

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