中国地方政府债务规模的适度性研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 05:54

本文选题：地方政府 + 债务规模　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：1994年中央对地方实施的不彻底的分税制改革，使得中央政府和地方政府事权与财权不对等分配，最终导致地方政府尤其是部分县市级政府相继陷入财政困难。为了维持地方生存与发展，地方政府必须拓宽资金来源，加大债务融资力度。近些年，，中央政府为了落实振兴经济或是抑制房价等宏观调控措施，陆续推出的4万亿经济刺激计划、房产调控新政、结构性减税等政策，更是直接或间接地促使地方政府加大对外融资力度，以维持地方财政收支平衡、加快发展地方经济。地方政府债务规模的快速膨胀伴随着地方政府落后的债务管理方式，地方债务问题日益凸显。但究竟什么样的债务规模才为合适的，地方政府债务规模的安全边际又在何处？本文首先回顾了国内外学者对于地方政府债务规模问题研究的相关资料，并介绍了我国地方政府债务的成因及现状。在此基础上，构建了地方政府债务适度性模型，用来监测和控制地方政府债务规模。本文通过分析政府负债指标，找出影响政府负债规模的变量。与此同时，通过多渠道收集2006-2011年C市地方政府负债规模资料以及其他相关经济数据，利用面板数据技术，尝试建立C市债务的回归模型，对C市未来债务进行预测和分析。另外，本文通过建立地方政府债务适度性验证模型，来对所预测的C市结果进行实证分析，发现C市地方政府债务规模已经进入重度预警区的范围，并接近重度预警区的最高值，此结果须引起C市地方政府乃至中央政府的高度重视。最后，以C市为例，对处于不同预警区的地方政府对于债务规模的控制与管理给予不同的建议，以防范地方政府债务的风险。
[Abstract]:In 1994, the incomplete reform of the local tax system made the distribution of administrative power and financial power between the central government and the local government unequal, resulting in local governments, especially some county and municipal governments, falling into financial difficulties one after another. In order to maintain local survival and development, local governments must broaden the sources of funds and increase debt financing. In recent years, in order to implement macroeconomic control measures such as revitalizing the economy or curbing house prices, the central government has successively introduced four trillion economic stimulus plans, new housing control policies, structural tax cuts, and other policies. It also directly or indirectly urges the local government to increase the external financing, to maintain the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and to accelerate the development of local economy. With the rapid expansion of local government debt scale, the local debt problem is becoming increasingly prominent with the backward debt management of local government. But what kind of debt scale is appropriate, and where is the margin of safety of the local government debt scale? In this paper, the author first reviews the relevant data of domestic and foreign scholars on the scale of local government debt, and introduces the causes and present situation of local government debt in China. On this basis, a local government debt suitability model is constructed to monitor and control the scale of local government debt. By analyzing the government debt index, this paper finds out the variables that affect the scale of government debt. At the same time, through multi-channel collection of debt scale data and other relevant economic data of local government in C city from 2006 to 2011, using panel data technology, we try to establish a regression model of C city debt, and forecast and analyze the future debt of C city. In addition, through the establishment of local government debt suitability verification model, to predict the empirical analysis of the results of C City, found that the scale of local government debt in C City has entered the scope of the severe early warning area. It is close to the maximum value of the severe early warning area, and this result should be attached great importance to by the local government and even the central government in C city. Finally, taking C city as an example, the author gives different suggestions on the control and management of debt scale for local governments in different early warning areas in order to guard against the risk of local government debt.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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