中美经常账户顺逆差分析

发布时间：2018-05-16 09:09

本文选题：经常账户 + 储蓄　；参考：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：在过去的十年中,美国庞大的经常账户赤字和中国的经常账户盈余已经成为世界经济失衡的一个重要标志,吸引了很多经济分析家和政策制定者的关注,成为研究的热点。基于以上背景和2000年至2009年中美经常账户的相关数据,本文详细地整理和分析了造成这一经济失衡现象的因素,来解释各因素是如何影响经常账户顺逆差和其各自的影响比重；阐述了美国经常账户和中国经常账户的基本状态,以及在全球经济正常发展的情况下,庞大的赤字和盈余终将消失；阐明了决定经常账户的两个主要内部因素——储蓄和净出口投资,与经常账户之间的逻辑关系。本文的主要工作是运用两期跨期理论模型建立了投资消费函数,提出影响经常账户的变量,分析各变量对经常账户的影响并预测了中美经常账户各自的发展倾向。这一模型能够解释经常账户的变化,一些指标尚有不足；本文应用了蒙代尔-弗莱明-托宾模型和现金流动机制,基于IS曲线,建立了经常账户函数,分析外生变量和内生变量的短期影响,从而有效地弥补跨期理论模型的不足使模型分析接近现实市场力量作用下的状态；应用经常账户函数结合图形描述了中美经常账户在市场力量和汇率变动下从短期均衡到固定均衡的转变。图13副,表20个,参考文献60篇
[Abstract]:Abstract: in the past decade, the huge current account deficit of the United States and China's current account surplus have become an important symbol of the world economic imbalance, which has attracted the attention of many economic analysts and policy makers. Become the hot spot of research. Based on the above background and the current account data from 2000 to 2009, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the causes of this economic imbalance, to explain how each factor affects the current account balance and its respective impact. The basic status of the US current account and China's current account and the large deficits and surpluses will eventually disappear under the normal development of the global economy. The logical relationship between savings and net export investment and current account is clarified. The main work of this paper is to establish the investment consumption function by using the two-period intertemporal theoretical model, to put forward the variables that affect the current account, to analyze the influence of each variable on the current account and to predict the development tendency of the current account in China and the United States. This model can explain the change of the current account, and some indexes are still insufficient. In this paper, the current account function is established based on the is curve by using the Mondal-Fleming Tobin model and the cash flow mechanism. By analyzing the short-term influence of exogenous and endogenous variables, the model can effectively make up for the deficiency of the intertemporal theoretical model and make the model analysis close to the state under the action of real market forces. The current account function is used to describe the transition from short-term equilibrium to fixed equilibrium in the current account of China and the United States under the changes of market forces and exchange rates. 13 pairs, 20 tables, 60 references
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5;F837.12;F224

【参考文献】