2005年汇改以来中国外汇市场有效性研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 02:04

本文选题：外汇市场 + 汇率制度改革　；参考：《南京理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：2005年7月21日,中国实行人民币汇率制度改革,形成了更富弹性的人民币汇率形成机制。此后,中国外汇市场的改革与发展稳步推进,中国人民银行和国家外汇管理局先后采取了一系列深化改革的政策和措施,积极完善外汇市场建设,强化外汇市场管理,中国外汇市场也呈现出多元化发展、活跃程度提高的趋势。2005年汇改以来,随着中国外汇市场汇率形成机制的不断完善,经常项目和资本项目管制的逐步放开,中国外汇市场的参与主体不断扩大,交易品种和交易方式更加丰富,交易量显著提高,人民币汇率的市场化程度和外汇市场的有效性程度都有了显著的提高,这也使得对于中国外汇市场有效性程度的争议愈发激烈。本文立足于完善中国外汇市场的改革与发展,探讨2005年汇率制度改革以来中国外汇市场的重要发展与变化,对外汇市场的整体有效性进行定性和定量分析,并且将2005年汇改以后中国外汇市场一系列深化改革的政策和措施变化纳入研究框架,分别研究相关政策变化对中国外汇市场汇率变动和市场有效性的影响。首先,在总结国内外理论和实证研究的基础上,本文对2005年汇改至今中国外汇市场的有效性程度进行实证检验,判断中国外汇市场有效性的整体状况。其次,2005年汇改至今的时间跨度将近七年,为了避免由于时间跨度过长引起的长期经济结构变化以及各个政策变化事件之间的相互影响,本文以2005年汇改以来的相关外汇制度改革和政策变化为时间节点,分析外汇市场相关政策变化对汇率波动及外汇市场有效性的影响。最后,在实证研究结论的基础上,对中国外汇市场的有效性程度和相关外汇政策的实施效果进行客观评价,并提出完善中国外汇市场建设和提高市场有效性程度的对策建议。
[Abstract]:On July 21, 2005, China carried out the reform of RMB exchange rate system, which formed a more flexible RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Since then, the reform and development of China's foreign exchange market has progressed steadily. The people's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have successively adopted a series of policies and measures to deepen the reform, actively improving foreign exchange market construction and strengthening foreign exchange market management. Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, with the continuous improvement of the exchange rate formation mechanism of China's foreign exchange market, the current account and capital account controls have been gradually liberalized. The participants in China's foreign exchange market have expanded continuously, trading varieties and trading methods have become more abundant, the volume of transactions has increased significantly, and the degree of marketization of the RMB exchange rate and the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market have improved significantly. This also makes the validity of China's foreign exchange market more controversial. Based on the reform and development of China's foreign exchange market, this paper probes into the important development and changes of China's foreign exchange market since the reform of the exchange rate regime in 2005, and carries out qualitative and quantitative analysis of the overall effectiveness of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, a series of policy and measure changes of deepening the reform of China's foreign exchange market after the exchange rate reform in 2005 are incorporated into the research framework to study the impact of the relevant policy changes on the exchange rate changes and market effectiveness of China's foreign exchange market. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign theories and empirical research, this paper makes an empirical test on the effectiveness of China's foreign exchange market since the exchange rate reform in 2005, and judges the overall situation of the effectiveness of China's foreign exchange market. Secondly, the exchange rate reform in 2005 has a time span of nearly seven years. In order to avoid the long-term economic structural changes caused by the long time span and the interaction between the various policy changes, This paper takes the relevant foreign exchange system reform and policy change since the exchange rate reform in 2005 as the time node to analyze the influence of the foreign exchange market policy changes on the exchange rate fluctuation and the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market. Finally, on the basis of the empirical research conclusions, this paper makes an objective evaluation of the effectiveness of China's foreign exchange market and the implementation effect of relevant foreign exchange policies, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for perfecting the construction of China's foreign exchange market and improving the degree of market effectiveness.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.52;F224

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