我国地方政府性债务风险及对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 01:49

本文选题：地方政府性债务 + 风险现状　；参考：《财政部财政科学研究所》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近期以来,国外投资机构和评级机构频繁警示我国政府性债务风险,继惠誉国际将中国长期本币信用评级从AA-调降至A+之后,穆迪于2013年4月16日确认对中国政府债券的评级为Aa3,同时将评级展望从正面调整为稳定。国际评.级机构下调评级主要基于我国政府性债务及信贷快速增长问题。2013年4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议亦关注了此事,并表示要“抓紧建立规范的地方政府举债融资机制”。银行业监督管理委员会于2013年4月连发8号文和10号文,都与地方政府性债务相关。8号文指向的影子银行正是很多地方建设项目所依赖的融资渠道,而10号文更是直接指向地方政府融资平台。可见,中央政府各部门已经高度关注地方政府性债务风险问题。近年来,地方政府性债务规模不断扩大,一方面满足了地方经济发展对资金的需求,另一方面管理不规范使得风险不断被放大。本论文在上述背景下,在研究国内外现状的基础上,以我国地方政府性债务为研究对象,通过采用综合分析、对比分析、逻辑分析的方法,研究我国地方政府性债务的现状、存在的风险和形成的原因,并借鉴国外地方政府性债务管理的经验和教训,最后得出化解我国政府性债务风险的短期任务和长期目标。本文通过对地方政府性债务的现状分析,结合当前我国总体的经济发展形势等,得出目前我国地方政府性债务总体风险可控,但局部风险凸现。地方政府性债务规模膨胀以及管理不规范、违约风险,将带来财政风险、金融风险、效率风险和社会风险。接着本文分析了地方政府性债务风险形成的原因,主要是现行的财税管理体制不健全和地方政府管理体制不规范两个方面。由于我国地方政府性债务出现时间短、管理经验不足,本文借鉴了发达国家美国和发展中国家巴西两个国家的地方债务管理经验,并得出对我国地方政府债务管理的启示。在此基础上,本文得出了防范和化解我国地方政府性债务风险的短期任务和长期目标。短期内主要是建立地方政府性债务信息披露制度、控制债务增量逐步消化存量和建立地方政府性债务风险预警机制。长期内主要任务包括完善法律制度和规则安排、调整政府间财政关系,以及建立全方位的地方政府性债务监督监管体系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign investment agencies and rating agencies have frequently warned of government debt risks in China. After Fitch International downgraded China's long-term local currency credit rating from AA- to A, Moody's on April 16, 2013, confirmed its rating on Chinese government bonds as Aa3, while adjusting its outlook from a positive to stable. International assessment The downgrade was largely based on China's government debt and rapid credit growth. The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2013, also focused on the issue, saying it was "urgent to establish a standardized financing mechanism for borrowing by local governments." In April 2013, the Banking Regulatory Commission issued successive languages 8 and 10, both of which relate to local government debt. The shadow bank that many local construction projects rely on is the source of finance for many local construction projects. And the 10 th text is pointed directly to the local government financing platform. Visible, the central government departments have been highly concerned about local government debt risk. In recent years, the scale of local government debt has been expanding. On the one hand, it meets the demand of local economic development for capital; on the other hand, the non-standard management makes the risk magnified. Under the above background, on the basis of studying the present situation at home and abroad, this paper takes the local government debt of our country as the research object, through adopting the comprehensive analysis, the contrast analysis, the logic analysis method, studies the present situation of the local government debt of our country. The existing risks and the causes of formation, and draw lessons from the experience and lessons of foreign local government debt management. Finally, the short-term task and long-term goal to resolve the risk of government debt in China are obtained. Based on the analysis of the present situation of local government debt and the overall economic development situation of our country, this paper draws a conclusion that the overall risk of local government debt is controllable, but the local risk is prominent. The inflated scale of local government debt and the risk of non-standard management and default will bring financial risk, efficiency risk and social risk. Then this paper analyzes the causes of the formation of local government debt risk, mainly in two aspects: the current financial and tax management system is not perfect and the local government management system is not standardized. Because the local government debt of our country appears in short time and the management experience is not enough, this paper draws lessons from the local debt management experience of the developed country, the United States and the developing country Brazil, and draws the enlightenment to the local government debt management of our country. On this basis, the short-term task and long-term goal of preventing and resolving the risk of local government debt in our country are obtained. In the short term, it is mainly to establish the local government debt information disclosure system, to control the debt increment and gradually digest the stock and to establish the local government debt risk warning mechanism. In the long run, the main tasks include perfecting the legal system and rules, adjusting the inter-governmental financial relations, and establishing a comprehensive supervision and supervision system of local government debt.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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