中国货币政策的股票价格传导渠道研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 03:51

本文选题：货币政策传导渠道 + 股票价格　；参考：《天津财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策传导机制是指中央银行运用货币政策工具影响中介指标,进而最终实现既定政策目标的传导途径与作用机理。货币政策传导机制是一个多渠道的过程,可以分为：利率渠道、信贷渠道、汇率渠道和资产价格渠道,并且不同的传导渠道产生的效应不同。自改革开放以来,随着经济体制改革的深化和金融市场的发展,尤其是1990年上交所和1991年深交所成立后,中国资本市场尤其是股票市场得到了长足发展,股票值占GDP的比重以及股票的持有份额在居民的资产结构中持续增加,使以调控国民经济作为主要任务的货币政策与股票市场的关系越来越紧密。由于股票市场在经济发展中扮演的角色越来越重要,股票价格在货币政策传导中的作用也日益突出,因此研究我国货币政策的股票价格传导渠道这一课题显得尤为迫切。中国货币政策的股票价格传导渠道分为两个阶段,第一阶段为货币政策传导到股票价格阶段,第二阶段为股票价格传导到实体经济阶段,从而构成货币政策传导渠道的全过程。在第一阶段中,文章通过单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解分析和相关系数分析等方法,针对货币供应量和利率两个变量,研究货币政策的调整对股票价格的影响,并得出结论：货币政策传导到股票价格这一渠道是通畅的,货币政策主要通过利率而非货币供应量影响股票市场。在第二阶段中,文章通过与上一阶段类似的分析方法,研究股票价格对消费和投资的影响,并得出结论：股票价格的消费效应和投资效应都比较小,股票价格传导到实体经济这一环节是不通畅的。因此,目前在中国货币政策的股票价格传导渠道是不通畅的,主要问题出现在股票价格向实体经济的传导过程上。针对如何疏导股票价格向实体经济的传导,文章提出四点建议：增强股票市场稳定性,减少投机现象发生；扩大股票市场规模,提高企业直接融资比例；加强对上市公司监管,规范融资资金使用；完善股票市场的准入退出机制。
[Abstract]:The transmission mechanism of monetary policy refers to the transmission path and mechanism by which the central bank exerts monetary policy tools to influence intermediary indicators and finally achieve the established policy objectives. Monetary policy transmission mechanism is a multi-channel process, which can be divided into interest rate channel, credit channel, exchange rate channel and asset price channel, and different transmission channels have different effects. Since the reform and opening up, with the deepening of economic restructuring and the development of financial markets, especially after the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990 and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1991, China's capital market, especially the stock market, has been greatly developed. The proportion of stock value to GDP and the holding share of stock increase continuously in the structure of residents' assets, which makes the monetary policy, which is the main task of regulating the national economy, more and more closely related to the stock market. Because the stock market plays an increasingly important role in the economic development and the stock price plays an increasingly prominent role in the transmission of monetary policy, it is particularly urgent to study the transmission channel of the stock price of monetary policy in China. The transmission channel of stock price of Chinese monetary policy is divided into two stages: the first stage is the monetary policy transmission to the stock price stage, and the second stage is the stock price transmission to the real economy stage, thus forming the whole process of the monetary policy transmission channel. In the first stage, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition analysis and correlation coefficient analysis, the paper aims at the two variables of money supply and interest rate. This paper studies the influence of the adjustment of monetary policy on the stock price, and concludes that the channel from which monetary policy is transmitted to the stock price is smooth, and monetary policy mainly influences the stock market through interest rate rather than money supply. In the second stage, the paper studies the influence of stock price on consumption and investment through the analysis method similar to the previous stage, and comes to the conclusion that the consumption effect and investment effect of stock price are relatively small. The transmission of stock price to the real economy is not smooth. Therefore, the transmission channel of stock price in China's monetary policy is not smooth, the main problem is the transmission of stock price to the real economy. In view of how to direct the transmission of stock price to the real economy, this paper puts forward four suggestions: strengthening the stability of stock market, reducing speculation, enlarging the scale of stock market, increasing the proportion of direct financing of enterprises, strengthening the supervision of listed companies. Standardize the use of financing funds; improve the stock market access and exit mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.51;F224

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