基于价值投资理念的定期定额投资策略之研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 11:58

本文选题：价值投资 + 公司成长性　；参考：《广东工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的股票市场从建立以来经历了深刻的发展,在国民经济中的地位也越来越显著。我国的经济持续增长,但是许多投资者在股票市场上并没有获得较高的利润。主要原因在于,一些投资者的投资理念和投资策略存在问题。价值投资是一种成功的投资理念,其核心思想是：股票的市场价格围绕其内在价值上下波动,长期来看,股票市场价格会向内在价值回归。当股票价格低于内在价值时,投资者应逐步买入并长期持有；当股票价格高于内在价值时,投资者应逐步卖出。学术界诸多研究者只是对股票的内在价值理论在我国证券市场上的适用性做定性分析,本文则以内在价值的理论为依据,用定量的实证分析方法来研究我国证券市场上常用的一种投资策略——定期定额投资策略。我们首先从传统的定期定额投资的定义出发,得到其收益率公式,并对其进行了数理分析,总结了影响定期定额投资策略收益率的因素。通过实证分析,本文归纳出定期定额投资方式下确保获利的投资策略的步骤：步骤一,寻找成长性良好的公司；步骤二,投资者应按股票的内在价值选择低成本股票,保证投资的低成本性；步骤三,在持股区间内,根据市场的投机性,紧盯股票的内在价值,当股票市场价格价格低于内在价值时,逐步买入；当股票市场价格高于内在价值时逐步卖出。步骤四,根据内在价值的理论,判断上市公司的成长性,根据成长性的变化确定持股区间。在上述步骤中,我们灵活的应用了内在价值的理念,研究了能够确保投资者盈利的定期定额投资策略。步骤三中,股票市场价格低于内在价值时,我们用回收的成本买入额外的股票,如此循环,长期下来,在坚持定投的过程中投资者投入的总成本没变,而坚持定投的过程中回收的成本反复利用,使得投资者的持有份额不断在增加,累积平均成本价格不断降低。步骤四中,当上市公司的成长性不再持续时,我们选择停止定投,而不局限于事先设定的固定的投资期限。相比传统的“傻瓜式”定期定额投资,投资者能够充分利用股市的牛熊市循环,使得投资的收益增大。
[Abstract]:The stock market of our country has experienced profound development since its establishment, and its position in the national economy is becoming more and more remarkable. China's economy continues to grow, but many investors in the stock market have not made a higher profit. The main reason is that some investors have problems with their investment ideas and strategies. Value investment is a successful investment idea whose core idea is that the market price of stock fluctuates around its intrinsic value and in the long run the price of stock market will return to its intrinsic value. When the stock price is below the intrinsic value, the investor should gradually buy and hold it for a long time; when the stock price is above the intrinsic value, the investor should gradually sell. Many researchers in academic circles only make qualitative analysis on the applicability of the internal value theory of stock in the stock market of our country, and this paper is based on the theory of intrinsic value. In this paper, a quantitative empirical analysis is used to study a common investment strategy in China's securities market: fixed quota investment strategy. Starting from the traditional definition of fixed investment, we get the formula of return rate, analyze it mathematically and summarize the factors that influence the return rate of fixed investment strategy. Through empirical analysis, this paper sums up the steps of investment strategy to ensure profit under regular quota investment: step one, looking for a company with good growth; step two, investors should choose low-cost stocks according to the intrinsic value of stocks. Ensure the low cost of investment; step 3, according to the speculative nature of the market, focus on the intrinsic value of the stock, step by step, buy when the price of the stock market is lower than the intrinsic value; Sell gradually when the stock market price is higher than the intrinsic value. Step four, according to the theory of internal value, judging the growth of listed companies, according to the change of growth to determine the holding interval. In the above steps, we apply the concept of intrinsic value flexibly and study the fixed investment strategy which can ensure the profit of investors. In step 3, when the stock market price is below the intrinsic value, we use the cost of recovery to buy additional stocks, so that, in the long run, the total cost invested by the investor in the process of holding on to the investment has not changed. However, the repeated use of the recovered cost in the process of holding the fixed investment makes the holding share of investors increase and the cumulative average cost price decrease. In step 4, when the growth of the listed company is no longer sustained, we choose to stop investing rather than limit ourselves to a predetermined fixed investment period. Compared with the traditional "fool" fixed investment, investors can make full use of the bull market cycle of the stock market and increase the return on the investment.
【学位授予单位】：广东工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

【参考文献】