土地生财机制支撑下的地方债务风险研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 03:07

本文选题：土地生财模式 + 信号传递　；参考：《中共中央党校》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：分税制改革后，地方政府财权与事权不匹配，，地方政府财政状况不佳，主要依靠中央政府的转移支付和税收返还维持财政收支平衡，没有余力进行公共投资。但是随着房地产业的不断发展，土地生财模式成为地方政府财政收入的重要支柱。2011年在审计部门的调查下地方政府庞大的债务规模逐步显露出来，引发了地方债务风险的担忧。本文首先通过对地方债务的发展历程进行梳理发现地方政府存在过度负债进行公共投资的强烈偏好。随后对国内外对于地方政府债务的研究论述和现状进行分析归纳，得到本文的研究结论：地方政府巨额负债的深层次原因是地方政绩考核体系和财源支持的结果，银行业起到了推波助澜的作用。我国实行集权式的行政管理体制，因此分析地方政府债务风险要上升到我国政府总体债务上进行定量分析，总体上说地方债务风险可控，但是局部风险、短期风险很高。随着中央政府对房地产行业采取了史上最严格的宏观调控，继续实行现有的土地生财模式不可持续，地方本级财政收入以及土地出让收入的不稳定性加剧，中央政府面临着兜底风险。本文根据研究发现：地方政府债务的深层次原因是政绩考核体系和土地生财模式共同作用的结果。因此本文从政治体制改革、财政体制改革、金融体制改革、土地生财模式改革四方面出发，通过四位一体的改革使地方政府举债投资冲动和超前财源的支撑得到有效抑制，使地方政府举债的边际成本和边际收益相等，实现当地居民的福利最大化。
[Abstract]:After the reform of the tax sharing system, the local government's financial power and power are not matched, the local government's financial situation is not good, it mainly depends on the central government's transfer payment and tax return to maintain the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, and there is no Yu Li for public investment. However, with the development of real estate industry, land revenue model has become an important pillar of local government revenue. In 2011, the huge debt scale of local government gradually revealed under the audit department survey, which caused local debt risk concern. Firstly, this paper finds out that the local government has a strong preference for excessive debt for public investment by combing the development process of local debt. Then this paper analyzes and summarizes the domestic and foreign research on the local government debt, and obtains the conclusion of this paper: the deep reason of the local government's huge debt is the result of the local government performance assessment system and the financial support. The banking sector has played a role in fuelling the flames. Our country implements the centralized administrative management system, therefore, the analysis of the local government debt risk should rise to the overall government debt quantitative analysis, generally speaking, the local debt risk is controllable, but the local risk, short-term risk is very high. As the central government has adopted the most stringent macro-control in the history of the real estate industry, the continuation of the existing land revenue generation model is not sustainable, and the instability of local fiscal revenues at the local level and the income from land sales has increased. The central government is at risk. According to the research, this paper finds that the deep reason of the local government debt is the result of the joint action of the political achievement appraisal system and the land generating money model. Therefore, this article from the political system reform, the financial system reform, the land income pattern reform four aspects, through the four-in-one reform, causes the local government to borrow the loan investment impulse and the support of the leading finance source to obtain the effective suppression. The marginal cost and marginal income of local government borrowing are equal and the welfare of local residents is maximized.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5;F301

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