现金股利影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 17:47

本文选题：现金分红 + 股利政策　；参考：《南京师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国股市向来“重圈钱、轻回报”。据WIND资讯数据,1990年至2010年,20年间沪深两市包括首发、增发、配股在内的累计融资金额高达3.7万亿元。而这20年间,沪深两市上市公司累计实施分红金额16050亿元,累计现金分红金额占总融资金额的43.3%,年化现金股利收益率约为1.8%,不仅低于一年期银行存款利率,还远远低于标准普尔500指数140年的历史平均股利收益率(为4.63%)。较低的股利收益率培养出了投资者错误的投资理念,助长了投机炒作之风气。与现金股利收益率低相对应的是高股票股利,分配高股票股利的上市公司股价容易受到炒作,加剧股市的短期波动。因此,较低的股利收益率不仅阻碍资金的持续入市,还不利于价值投资者队伍的壮大,更不利于中国股市的长期稳定发展。随着中国股市的成熟发展,证券监管部门已经注意的这一问题,也陆续出台了相关的政策规定鼓励现金分红。然而,“一刀切”的做法没有针对性,反而导致了其他的一些不良现象。如超额派现、象征性分红等等。为了能够真正的规范提高现金股利分配,必须先弄清楚现金股利的影响因素。因此,本文对影响现金股利的因素做了深刻的理论分析,并根据理论分析提出研究假设。为了验证理论分析的真伪,本文把变量划分为上市公司财务因素变量、公司治理结构变量、外部因素三大类,并通过建立多远线性回归模型的方法把三类变量逐步引入模型。为了避免模型结果的片面性,本文选取2009年和2010年两年的数据进行实证研究,并对比研究结果,以得出更具广泛适用性的模型。为了研究不同行业现金股利分配的差异性影响因素。我们设立虚拟变量HYCZ和LRLRL把行业分为成长型行业和衰退性行业、高利润行业和低利润行业。并将这两个虚拟变量纳入多元线性回归模型,研究行业性质对现金股利分配的影响。最终的实证研究结果表明,大多数的变量通过了显著性检验。每股收益、每股经营现金流、第一大股东持股比例、高管薪酬、报告数量对每股现金股利有显著正向影响,而每股未分配利润、资产负债率、主营业务收入增长对每股现金股利有显著反向影响。本文的创新之处在于把上市公司面临的信贷环境纳入研究模型。以往的研究主要针对上市公司内部因素对现金股利分配的影响,本文扩展研究视角,将针对上市公司的研报数量和当年信贷规模作为外部变量纳入研究模型。最终报告数量通过了显著性检验,并对每股现金股利有显著正向影响,而信贷规模变量并没有通过显著性检验。作者希望通过进一步的学习,并选用更加适合的指标做进一步的相关研究。
[Abstract]:China's stock market has always been "heavy circle of money, less return." According to win data, the cumulative amount of capital raised in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets between 1990 and 2010 was as high as 3.7 trillion yuan, including initial public offerings, additional offerings and rights issues. In the past 20 years, the listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have implemented a cumulative dividend of 1.605 trillion yuan, and the accumulated cash dividend amount accounts for 43.3% of the total financing amount. The annual cash dividend yield is about 1.8%, which is not only lower than the one-year bank deposit interest rate. It is also well below the 140-year average dividend yield of the S & P 500 (4.63%). The lower dividend yield cultivates the wrong investment idea of investors and encourages speculative speculation. The low yield of cash dividend corresponds to the high stock dividend. The stock price of the listed company that distributes the high stock dividend is easy to be hyped and the short-term fluctuation of the stock market is aggravated. Therefore, the lower dividend yield not only hinders the sustained entry of funds into the market, but also is not conducive to the growth of value investors, but also to the long-term stable development of Chinese stock market. As China's stock market matures, securities regulators have been paying attention to this issue, has also introduced policies to encourage cash dividends. However, the "one-size-fits-all" approach did not target, but led to some other undesirable phenomena. Such as over-payment, symbolic dividends and so on. In order to improve the distribution of cash dividend, it is necessary to find out the influencing factors of cash dividend. Therefore, this paper makes a profound theoretical analysis of the factors affecting cash dividend, and puts forward the research hypotheses according to the theoretical analysis. In order to verify the authenticity of the theoretical analysis, this paper divides the variables into three categories: financial variables, corporate governance variables and external factors, and introduces the three variables into the model step by establishing a multi-distance linear regression model. In order to avoid the one-sidedness of the model results, this paper selects the data from 2009 and 2010 to carry on the empirical research, and compares the research results, in order to obtain the more widely applicable model. In order to study the different factors of cash dividend distribution in different industries. We set up virtual variables HYCZ and LRLRL to divide the industry into growth industry and recession industry, high profit industry and low profit industry. The two virtual variables are incorporated into the multivariate linear regression model to study the effect of industry properties on cash dividend distribution. The final empirical results show that most variables have passed the significance test. Earnings per share, operating cash flow per share, shareholding ratio of the largest shareholders, executive compensation, and number of reports have a significant positive impact on cash dividends per share, while undistributed profits per share, asset-liability ratio, Main business revenue growth has a significant negative impact on cash dividends per share. The innovation of this paper is to incorporate the credit environment faced by listed companies into the research model. Previous studies mainly focus on the internal factors of listed companies on the distribution of cash dividend. This paper extends the perspective of the research, taking the amount of research reports and the scale of credit as external variables into the research model. The final report quantity passed the significance test and had a significant positive effect on the cash dividend per share, while the credit scale variable did not pass the significance test. The author hopes to further study and select more suitable indicators for further research.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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