我国地方债风险防范制度研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 07:41

本文选题：地方债 + 发行风险　；参考：《内蒙古财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：为了应对国际金融危机，保持国内经济平稳快速发展，2009年我国首次在全国范围内发行了数额2000亿元的地方债。截至2011年，中央政府每年代地方发行2000亿元地方债，这些地方债主要用来为地方政府的公益性项目以及民生建设项目融资。在我们看到地方债带来的正面效应同时，更应看到地方债发行过程中面临的风险因素，只有将地方债的正面效应和防范风险制度设计紧密结合起来，才能真正发挥地方债在促进地方经济社会发展积极的作用。因此，本文的着眼点在于对我国已发行地方债可能出现的风险进行研究，共分为五部分，具体研究内容如下：首先，介绍本文的选题背景和意义、分析并总结国内外地方债研究现状，阐述论文的主要研究思路、方法和研究内容以及不足点和创新之处；其次，对地方债风险相关理论做了详细阐释，主要包括两部分，一部分是对地方债理论的概述；另一部分是对地方债风险理论的概述；第三，借鉴美、日等发达国家地方债风险防范成功经验，比较并总结出对我国地方债风险防范有意义的启示，为下文的制度设计提供参考；第四：主要对我国地方债风险现状分析。首先，，简要介绍我国地方债的历史沿革和发展现状，然后通过对地方债发行风险、流通风险、使用风险和信用风险角度进行逐一分析，并运用改进后的KMV模型分析法，对内蒙古自治区地方债信用风险进行实证分析；最后，关于我国地方债风险防范制度设计。主要通过总结分析国外地方债风险防范的成功经验，以及我国已发行的地方债所面临的风险，并结合我国实际国情来尝试设计我国地方债风险防范的制度。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the international financial crisis and maintain the steady and rapid development of domestic economy, China issued 200 billion yuan of local debt for the first time in the whole country in 2009. By 2011, the central government had issued 200 billion yuan of local debt a year on behalf of the local government, which was used to finance local government projects for public welfare and livelihood projects. At the same time, we should also see the risk factors in the process of issuing local debt. Only by combining the positive effect of local debt with the design of risk prevention system, Only then can the local debt really play a positive role in promoting the local economic and social development. Therefore, the focus of this paper is to study the possible risks of local debt issued in China, which is divided into five parts. The specific research contents are as follows: first, introduce the background and significance of this topic. This paper analyzes and summarizes the current situation of local debt research at home and abroad, expounds the main research ideas, methods and research contents, shortcomings and innovations of the paper. Secondly, the related theories of local debt risk are explained in detail, including two parts. Part is an overview of the theory of local debt; the other part is an overview of the theory of local debt risk; third, learn from the successful experience of preventing local debt risk in developed countries such as the United States, Japan, etc. This paper compares and summarizes the meaningful enlightenment to the risk prevention of local debt in our country, and provides the reference for the system design below. Fourth, it mainly analyzes the present situation of the risk of local debt in our country. Firstly, this paper briefly introduces the history and development of local debt in China, then analyzes the risk of local bond issuance, circulation risk, use risk and credit risk one by one, and applies the improved KMV model analysis method. The paper makes an empirical analysis on the credit risk of local debt in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and finally, designs the risk prevention system of local debt in China. Through summing up and analyzing the successful experience of the risk prevention of foreign local debt and the risk of the local debt issued in our country, and combining the actual situation of our country, we try to design the risk prevention system of the local debt in our country.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

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