基于事件分析法谈《人民日报》文章对股指的影响

发布时间：2018-07-15 09:32

【摘要】：我国股票市场自1990年创建以来,一直受到管理层的密切关注。但作为发展初期的市场,必然存在着各种各样的问题。例如,投资者不成熟、市场非理性炒作、信息披露不规范、监管手段欠缺、监管措施乏力等,导致股票市场经常出现大起大落的异常波动,给投资者带来了严重损失,制约了资本市场的持续发展,影响了国民经济的健康运行或社会稳定。国家政策对于股市的变动有着重要的影响,“政策市”是对长期以来我国股市的一种评价,可见政策对于股指的重要性。我国股市发展的历程也是监管政策不断完善的过程。《人民日报》是国家政策的一种重要信息传导途径,《人民日报》其刊登的文章往往代表国家政府、管理层对政治经济的态度和观点,进而体现国家利用行政手段调控经济的态度。《人民日报》作为党和政府的喉舌,承担着每日向中国和全世界传播中国共产党和中国政府的方针、政策及主张的重任,其中人民日报的言论,尤其人民日报社论和评论员文章等,被认为直接传达着党中央和国务院的声音,《人民日报》被认为是我国对海内外进行新闻报道和政治经济文化宣传的第一媒体,是中国共产党中央委员会的机关报,是中国最具权威性、发行量最大的、最有影响力的全国性报纸。《人民日报》刊登文章对股指的影响究竟怎么样?是利好政策股指就真的会上涨,利空政策股指就马上下降?政策对股指的影响程度又是如何,带着这些问题本文采用事件分析法来分析《人民日报》刊登文章对股指的影响。本文分为六部分,具体结构及主要观点如下：第1章,绪论部分。本章分为两个部分,首先介绍本文的选题意义,其次是文章的结构框架。第2章,文献综述。对事件研究法在国外的应用与国内的应用作了简要的总结概括,指出事件分析法在金融市场方面的诸多应用。第3章,事件研究法及其应用的核心问题。本章首先介绍了事件分析法的原理与基本程序,定义事件和事件窗,确定取样标准,估计正常收益,计算异常收益等问题。其次是对事件分析法实际应用中的核心问题进行简单分析。第4章,有关文章对股指影响的描述性分析。本章分为两个部分,首先是关于文章的选取与搜集,本文是选取《人民日报》文章包括在人民日报刊登的特约评论员文章以及人民日报记者所撰写的评论文章,这些文章最具有政策舆论的代表性,反应国家当前的政策监管与调控的导向。其次是有关文章对股指波动的影响分析,结合股指对每一篇文章进行政策效应的分析。有的文章具有明显的短期影响,有的文章影响很小不能达到政策的调控效果。这说明管理层通过《人民日报》所刊登有关文章进行行政干预和调控的目的并没有完全达到。第5章,基于事件分析法的实证分析。本章分为三个部分,首先介绍了事件分析法在分析《人民日报》刊登文章对股指影响的具体步骤。其次对26个事件进行了具体的统计分析和统计检验得出结论,人民日报所刊登的相关文章对股市的影响方向和调控效果都大不相同。有的文章具有显著的即期或短期调控效果,而有的文章影响效果不显著,尤其是利好性质的文章,调控效果大多不理想,利空文章的影响效果强于利好文章的影响效果。最后是对全部事件的整体性检验,对全部政策、利好政策以及利空政策都进行了统计检验。第6章,结论建议与不足之处。对历次《人民日报》刊登关于股票市场的文章,由描述性分析和实证分析可以看出,我国管理层对股市的调控运用行政手段的频率是逐渐提高的,但短期的调控效果在逐渐减弱,而中期效果更不明显,行政手段的调控效果是有限的。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the stock market in 1990, China has been closely concerned with the management, but as the early development of the market, there must be a variety of problems. For example, the investors are not mature, the market is irrational and hype, the information disclosure is not standard, the supervision means is short, the supervision measures are weak and so on, which leads to the stock market often rising and falling. The abnormal fluctuation has brought serious losses to the investors, restricts the continuous development of the capital market and affects the healthy operation of the national economy or social stability. The national policy has an important influence on the change of the stock market. "The policy market" is an evaluation of the stock market in China for a long time, and the importance of the policy to the stock index is seen. The course of the development of the stock market is also the process of continuous improvement of the regulatory policy. "People's Daily >" is an important channel for information transmission of national policy. The articles published by the people's daily often represent the state government, the attitude and view of the management of the political economy, and then the attitude of the state to regulate the economy by administrative means. < People's Daily >. The speech of the people's daily, especially the people's daily editorials and commentators' articles, is considered to be directly conveyed by the voice of the Party Central Committee and the national affairs academy, and the people's daily is considered to be the sea of China to the sea. The first media, which carries out news reports and political, economic and cultural propaganda, is the organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. It is the most authoritative, most influential and most influential national newspaper in China.
What is the influence of the articles on the stock index in the people's daily? Is the good policy stock index will rise, the sharp policy stock index drops immediately? How is the influence of the policy on the stock index, with these questions this article uses the event analysis method to analyze the influence of the people's Daily > the article on the stock index.
This article is divided into six parts, the specific structure and main points are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter is divided into two parts. First, it introduces the significance of this topic, followed by the structure of the article.
The second chapter is a summary of the application of event research in foreign countries and its domestic applications, and points out the application of event analysis in the financial market.
The third chapter, the core problem of event study and its application. This chapter first introduces the principles and basic procedures of event analysis, defines events and event windows, determines sampling standards, estimates normal income, and calculates abnormal returns. The second is a simple analysis of the core issues in the practical application of event analysis.
The fourth chapter is about the descriptive analysis of the influence of the stock index. This chapter is divided into two parts. First, it is about the selection and collection of the articles. This article is the selection of the special commentator articles published by the people's daily in the people's daily and the comments written by the people's daily journalists. These articles are most representative of the representative opinion of the policy. The second is the analysis of the influence of the relevant articles on the volatility of the stock index, and the analysis of the policy effect on each article. Some articles have obvious short-term effects and some articles are very small and can not achieve the effect of the policy. This shows that management through the people's daily. The purpose of administrative intervention and regulation of articles published has not been achieved.
The fifth chapter is an empirical analysis based on the event analysis. This chapter is divided into three parts. First, it introduces the event analysis method in the analysis of the concrete steps of the influence of the published articles on the stock index in the people's daily. Secondly, it makes a specific statistical analysis and statistical test on the 26 events, and draws a conclusion, the influence of the related articles published by people's daily is on the stock market. The effect of direction and regulation is very different. Some articles have significant effect of immediate or short-term control, while some articles have not significant effect on the effect, especially the good quality article, most of the effect is not ideal, the effect of the short article is stronger than the effect of good article. Finally, the whole test of all the events, to the whole The Ministry's policies, favorable policies and bad policies have been tested statistically.
The sixth chapter, the conclusions and shortcomings. The descriptive analysis and empirical analysis of the articles on the stock market published in the "people's Daily" show that the frequency of administrative use of the regulation and control on the stock market is gradually improved, but the short-term effect is gradually weakening, and the medium-term effect is less obvious, administrative means The effect of regulation is limited.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G219.2;F832.51;F224

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