中国金融分市场的相异态势和协同变化
发布时间：2018-07-17 05:00
【摘要】：随着中国改革的深入,金融领域的开放日益增强,国内外经济融合度迅速提高,金融分市场中的股票、外汇和货币市场通过不同渠道相互作用且相互影响。虽然通过方差比例对三个市场的刻画已知股价、汇率和利率的发展趋势各不相同,但是协整检验表明三者之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系。所以,股票市场、外汇市场和货币市场之间的关联应该强化而不是相互孤立,改善三个市场之间的传导渠道能够提高政府对经济的调控效率。作为发展中国家,中国股票、外汇和货币三个金融分市场的发展还远未达到发达国家水平,所以改革离不开政府的审慎监管,需要基于宏观经济状况以及市场现实问题对三个市场进行监控,从而避免金融领域的过度投机行为,规避金融系统风险的积累。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform, the opening up of the financial field is increasing day by day, and the degree of domestic and foreign economic integration is increasing rapidly. The stock, foreign exchange and money markets in the financial sub-market interact and affect each other through different channels. The cointegration test shows that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the three markets, although the trends of exchange rate and interest rate are different from each other through the characterization of the three markets by the proportion of variance. Therefore, the relationship between the stock market, the foreign exchange market and the money market should be strengthened rather than isolated from each other. Improving the transmission channels between the three markets can improve the efficiency of the government's regulation and control of the economy. As a developing country, the development of the three financial sub-markets of China's stock, foreign exchange and currency is still far from the level of the developed countries, so the reform cannot be separated from the prudent supervision of the government. It is necessary to monitor the three markets on the basis of macroeconomic situation and market reality so as to avoid excessive speculation in the financial field and avoid the accumulation of risks in the financial system.
【作者单位】： 吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY141) 吉林大学基本科研业务费项目(2014QY058)
【分类号】：F832.5
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform, the opening up of the financial field is increasing day by day, and the degree of domestic and foreign economic integration is increasing rapidly. The stock, foreign exchange and money markets in the financial sub-market interact and affect each other through different channels. The cointegration test shows that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the three markets, although the trends of exchange rate and interest rate are different from each other through the characterization of the three markets by the proportion of variance. Therefore, the relationship between the stock market, the foreign exchange market and the money market should be strengthened rather than isolated from each other. Improving the transmission channels between the three markets can improve the efficiency of the government's regulation and control of the economy. As a developing country, the development of the three financial sub-markets of China's stock, foreign exchange and currency is still far from the level of the developed countries, so the reform cannot be separated from the prudent supervision of the government. It is necessary to monitor the three markets on the basis of macroeconomic situation and market reality so as to avoid excessive speculation in the financial field and avoid the accumulation of risks in the financial system.
【作者单位】： 吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY141) 吉林大学基本科研业务费项目(2014QY058)
【分类号】：F832.5
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