德国私募股权基金筹资和投资驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-18 07:39

【摘要】：私募股权基金是经济发展的一项重要金融支撑。经过了近50年的发展,德国私募股权基金进入了高速增长期,并成为德国金融市场不可或缺的组成部分。在独特的经济、文化、法律和税收制度等背景下,德国私募股权基金的发展呈现出独特的特点,也带来成功的经验。因此,本文选择德国私募股权基金筹资和投资驱动因素为研究主题,通过挖掘德国私募股权基金在1991年至2010年间的高速增长发展阶段,其筹资和投资受到的具体影响因素,希望有助于我们更深地理解促进私募股权基金发展的有效措施。中国目前正处于私募股权基金发展初期阶段,可以借鉴德国私募股权基金发展的成功经验。本文首先全面阐释了私募股权基金的概念、组织形式和运作流程。在此基础上,本文介绍了德国私募股权基金发展面临的外部环境,及其从60年代至今的发展历程,并进一步分析了在高速增长阶段,其筹资、投资和撤资的运作特点。接着,本文开始对德国私募股权基金筹资和投资的驱动因素进行实证分析。首先,本文定性地分析了德国私募股权基金筹资和投资的驱动因素,接着对这些驱动因素进行定量的实证检验,并对实证结果进行分析。最后,本文对中国目前私募股权基金的发展现状和面临的挑战进行论述,并总结德国私募股权基金发展经验给中国私募股权基金发展带来的启示。本文在Jeng和Well(2000)驱动因素计量模型的基础上进行拓展,通过采用1991年至2010年间德国私募股权基金筹资额和投资额作为因变量,并在模型的自变量中重点考虑了德国公开发行上市企业数量(IPOs)、德国并购交易额占GDP比重、德国证券市场交易指数DAX增长率、德国中小企业自有资本率和德国自我雇佣比率等驱动因素。本文的创新点在于,本文分析模型中不仅考虑了之前被学者研究过的诸多驱动因素,同时结合了德国私募股权基金发展的独特性,引入新的驱动因素(包括德国中小企业自有资本率、德国自我雇佣比率等)进行实证检验。此外,本文在前人对早期阶段风险投资和后期阶段风险投资两类私募股权基金投资进行分类分析的基础上,进一步分析了杠杆收购的驱动因素,以验证早期阶段风险投资、扩张阶段风险投资和杠杆收购这三类投资是否受相同的因素驱动。再者,本文将私募股权基金的总筹资额按筹资来源划分,并对银行、养老基金、政府和其他四类筹资额进行实证检验,以验证不同来源的筹资额是否受到相同因素的驱动。对私募股权基金筹资的驱动因素进行实证分析后,本文发现总体上新基金筹资额的高低主要取决于研发增长率、企业家精神和并购市场繁荣程度。分类看来,来自于银行的新基金筹资额的高低主要取决于DAX增长率、失业率和并购市场繁荣程度。而并购市场繁荣是推动来自于养老基金的私募股权基金筹资额的最关键因素。而并购市场的繁荣和研发支出增长率是影响来自于政府的私募股权基金筹资额的关键因素。而对于个人投资者和公司等其他来源的私募股权基金筹资额来说,关键的驱动因素是失业率、企业家精神和并购市场繁荣程度。总之,不同类别的筹资都受到了并购交易额占GDP比重这一驱动因素的影响,而不受IPO企业数量这一变量的影响,说明德国IPO市场相对于并购市场来说较为不繁荣,因而过去20年来,德国并购市场的快速发展是推动德国私募股权新基金筹资额增长的关键因素。此外,不同类别的筹资还受到了不同因素的驱动。其中,来自银行的私募股权基金筹资额还受到了DAX指数增长率的驱动。随着DAX指数增长率提高,银行资产和盈利能力提高,推动了来自银行的私募股权基金筹资额的提高。而来自政府的私募股权基金筹资额则受到了研发增长率的驱动,因为研发带来的新兴产业的投资机会往往是政府资金介入私募股权基金的关键原因。而对于个人投资者和公司等其他来源的私募股权基金的筹资来说,企业家精神则是关键的驱动因素。对私募股权基金投资的驱动因素进行实证分析后,本文发现,总投资额的高低主要取决于利率、失业率、股票市值增长率、企业家精神和并购市场繁荣程度。分类看来,早期阶段风险投资额的增长主要受IPO市场和并购市场的繁荣的推动,同时加入失业率和利率后,IPO企业数量和并购交易额占GDP比重的显著性提高。其次,扩张阶段风险投资额的增长主要受并购市场繁荣程度而非IPO市场繁荣程度的影响,同时加入失业率和利率后,并购交易额占GDP比重的显著性提高。最后,杠杆收购投资额最重要的驱动因素是利率,而股票市值增长率、研发增长率和IPO企业数量均对杠杆收购投资额变动有贡献。此外,虽然不同类别的投资都受到了利率这一因素的影响,但利率对于杠杆收购的重要性远高于早期阶段风险投资和扩张阶段风险投资。而虽然IPO市场和并购市场所代表的退出渠道是否通畅是驱动早期阶段风险投资额和扩张阶段风险投资额变动的关键因素。然而,早期阶段风险投资额的增长同时受IPO市场和并购市场的影响,而扩张阶段风险投资额的增长则主要受并购市场繁荣的推动,而与IPO市场无显著相关性。
[Abstract]:Private equity fund is an important financial support for economic development. After nearly 50 years of development, the German private equity fund has entered a period of rapid growth and has become an integral part of the German financial market. Therefore, this paper chooses the driving factors of the fund-raising and investment of the German private equity fund as the research topic, and through the excavation of the rapid growth and development stage of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, the specific impact factors of its financing and investment are expected to help us to further understand the promotion. The effective measures for the development of private equity fund. China is now in the early stage of the development of private equity fund, which can draw on the successful experience of the development of the German private equity fund.
This paper first comprehensively explains the concept, form and operation process of private equity fund. On this basis, this paper introduces the external environment of the development of the German private equity fund, and its development from 60s to the present, and further analyzes the operation characteristics of the financing, investment and withdrawal in the high speed growth stage. This paper begins with an empirical analysis of the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund. First, this paper analyzes the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund, and then carries out a quantitative empirical test on these driving factors and analyzes the empirical results. Finally, the present private equity in China is presented in this paper. The development status and challenges of the fund are discussed, and the Enlightenment from the development experience of the German private equity fund to the development of China's private equity fund is summarized.
On the basis of Jeng and Well (2000) driving factor model, this paper extends the amount and amount of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, and focuses on the number of publicly listed companies in Germany (IPOs) in the independent variables of the model, and the German merger and acquisition transactions account for the proportion of GDP, and the German securities The growth rate of market trading index DAX, the driving factors of the private capital rate and the self employment ratio of German small and medium enterprises, the innovation point of this paper is that this analysis model not only considers many driving factors which have been studied by scholars before, but also combines the uniqueness of the development of German private equity fund and introduces new driving factors. In addition, on the basis of the previous classification and analysis of two types of private equity funds in early stage venture investment and late stage venture investment, this paper further analyzes the driving factors of the bar purchase in order to verify the early stage risk. Investment, the three types of investment and leveraged buyout are driven by the same factors. Furthermore, this paper divides the total financing amount of the private equity fund according to the sources of financing, and tests the banks, pension funds, the government and other four types of funds to verify whether the financing amount of different sources is subject to the same factors. Drive.
After an empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund raising, this paper finds that the overall fund raising of the new fund depends mainly on the growth rate of R & D, the spirit of entrepreneurship and the prosperity of the M & a market. It seems that the main financing of the new fund from the bank depends on the DAX growth rate, the unemployment rate and the complex market. The prosperity of the M & a market is the most important factor in promoting the financing of private equity funds from pension funds. The prosperity of the M & a market and the growth rate of R & D expenditure are the key factors affecting the financing of private equity funds from the government. Private equity funds for individual investors and other sources such as companies are the key factors. In terms of funding, the key drivers are the unemployment rate, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity of the M & a market. In a word, different types of financing are affected by the driving factor of the share of GDP, which is not influenced by the number of IPO enterprises, indicating that the German IPO market is more unprosperous than the M & a market. The rapid development of the German merger and acquisition market in the past 20 years has been a key factor in promoting the growth of the fund raising of the new German private equity fund. In addition, different types of financing have been driven by different factors. Among them, the financing of private equity funds from banks is also driven by the growth rate of the DAX index. With the increase of the DAX index, Higher, higher bank assets and higher profitability have promoted the increase in private equity funds from the banks. Private equity funds from the government are driven by R & D growth rate, because the investment opportunities of emerging industries brought by R & D are often the key reason for the government funds to intervene in private equity funds. Entrepreneurship is the key driver for the financing of private equity funds from other sources, such as individual investors and companies.
After the empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund investment, this paper finds that the total amount of investment depends mainly on the interest rate, the unemployment rate, the growth rate of stock market value, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity degree of the M & a market. After joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the number of IPO enterprises and the amount of M & A transactions accounted for a significant increase in the proportion of GDP. Secondly, the increase of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage is mainly influenced by the prosperity degree of the M & a market rather than the prosperity of the IPO market, at the same time, after joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the proportion of the purchase and transaction amount to the proportion of GDP is significantly increased. The most important driving factor is the interest rate, and the stock market value growth rate, the R & D growth rate and the number of IPO enterprises contribute to the change of the leveraged buy-out investment. In addition, although the different types of investment are affected by the factor of interest rate, the interest rate is much more important than the early stage venture investment. However, the growth of the early stage risk investment is affected by the IPO market and the purchase market, while the expansion stage venture investment is the key factor in the early stage of venture investment and the change of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage. The growth is mainly driven by the prosperity of the M & a market, but has no significant correlation with the IPO market.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F835.16

【共引文献】