现金股利政策与经营业绩波动研究

发布时间：2018-07-20 09:45

【摘要】：股利信号传递理论研究表明，现金股利政策传递了上市公司未来盈利方面的信息。由于国内的股利政策制定正还处在一个不断成熟的过程中，学者的研究结论表明现金股利的信息传递作用在我国资本市场不完全适用，即现金股利的变动不能预测下一期的盈利变动；但有研究表明发放现金红利的上市公司未来的盈利能力更好，持续性更强。另外，连续发放现金红利的上市公司的股价波动与过去业绩波动呈显著的负相关性。国内学者研究表明虽然股利信号传递信息能力在我国市场不能完美实现，但现金股利还是能传递出公司的盈利质量某方面信息。本文认为现金股利能传递上市公司未来经营业绩波动信息，现金股利政策体现了上市公司管理层对公司未来盈利稳定性的看好，发放现金股利的上市公司未来经营业绩波动显著小于不发放现金股利的公司。通过对2001年-2010年上市公司现金分红样本进行实证回归，结果表明：上市公司现金分红与未来经营业绩波动显著负相关，而且现金分红与账面市值比、资产负债率等指标成为衡量公司经营业绩稳健的有效手段。另外，上市公司连续的现金分红政策能更为有效的解释未来经营业绩的波动，这种以连续现金流出的政策表明了上市公司管理层对公司的经营业绩稳定和持续性更为看好。最后，为了剔除股票股利的影响进行了纯现金股利与经营业绩波动回归，结果表明在大样本下结果基本一致；在分年度回归中2001年样本中现金股利虚拟变量回归系数不显著，进一步分析判断表明很可能是受到当年政策推出的影响；连续样本回归结果表明纯现金股利的信号传递效应进一步得到提高。研究表明现金分红能传递管理层对未来经营业绩稳定的一种预期，是一种有效的会计性导向工具,能减小信息不对称现象。同时，现金股利不仅给予投资者一定的回报，而且削弱了投资者仅仅指望股价上涨给自己来来回报的期望，，从而减少了过度交易现象，引导投资者回归理性，加大对关注公司的关注,最终提高市场效率。
[Abstract]:The research of dividend signaling theory shows that the cash dividend policy conveys the future earnings information of listed companies. As the domestic dividend policy is still in the process of maturing, the research results show that the information transmission function of cash dividend is not fully applicable in China's capital market. That is, the change of cash dividend can not predict the next earnings change, but some studies show that listed companies that pay cash dividends have better profitability and more sustainability in the future. In addition, there is a significant negative correlation between stock price volatility and past earnings volatility of listed companies with continuous cash dividends. The research of domestic scholars shows that although the ability of dividend signal transmission information can not be realized perfectly in our country, cash dividend can still transmit some information about the company's profit quality. This paper holds that cash dividend can transmit the information of future operating performance fluctuation of listed companies, and the cash dividend policy reflects the positive attitude of the management of listed companies to the future profit stability of the listed companies. The volatility of future operating performance of listed companies paying cash dividends is significantly lower than that of companies without cash dividends. Through the empirical regression of cash dividend samples of listed companies from 2001 to 2010, the results show that the cash dividend of listed companies is negatively correlated with the future operating performance fluctuation, and the cash dividend has a negative correlation with the market value ratio of book value. Asset-liability ratio and other indicators have become an effective means to measure the stability of the company's business performance. In addition, the continuous cash dividend policy of listed companies can explain the fluctuation of future business performance more effectively. This continuous cash outflow policy shows that the management of listed companies is more optimistic about the stability and sustainability of the company's operating performance. Finally, in order to eliminate the influence of stock dividend, the regression of pure cash dividend and operating performance fluctuation is carried out. The results show that the results are basically the same in large sample, and the regression coefficient of virtual variable of cash dividend in 2001 sample is not significant in the annual regression. Further analysis indicates that it is likely to be affected by the introduction of policy in the current year, and the result of continuous sample regression shows that the signal transmission effect of pure cash dividend is further improved. The research shows that cash dividend can transfer the expectation of management's future performance stability, is an effective accounting guidance tool, and can reduce the information asymmetry phenomenon. At the same time, the cash dividend not only gives a certain return to investors, but also weakens the expectation that investors can only expect the stock price to rise to themselves, thus reducing the phenomenon of excessive trading and guiding investors to return to rationality. Pay more attention to the concern of the company, and ultimately improve the efficiency of the market.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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