我国货币政策怎样关注资产价格波动

发布时间：2018-07-26 18:39

【摘要】：货币政策对于货币稳定以及对金融稳定的意义非同寻常，货币政策如何关注资产价格决定了货币政策对经济的调控效率以及经济稳定性的影响。把资产价格纳入到IS-LM-PC模型，通过构建货币稳定指数和以货币稳定和经济增长为目标的货币政策损失函数，结果表明：把货币稳定指数表示为通货膨胀率，资产价格的波动率与汇率的加权平均值，能更加准确的表达货币金融状况。最优的货币政策规则其中包含最优利率规则和最优货币供给量的规则，它们不但要关注资产价格，，而且还能够比较精确地将它们纳入到规则体系中。利用中国1993年1季度-2012年2季度的数据结合VAR法、广义矩估计法（GMM）、状态空间可变参数法通过实证检验我们得出：中国的利率政策和货币供给量主要对产出增长的关注度最高，产出增长也一直是中国货币政策的核心关注目标，但对已股市、房地产等资产价格反应却不明显，说明中央银行并没有对资产价格波动等因素给予足够的关注而于此同时央行的货币政策对汇率关注非常明显。在货币政策操作规则上中央银行没有公开申明要遵循利率规则，但所实施的一系列货币政策操作手段却和最优的利率规则比较符合，而且在以货币供给量中介目标制下，能看出最优货币供给量规则特征，且两者在现实中表现稳定性和协调一致性。不过目前我国的货币政策在前瞻性方面还没能够做出显著的成绩。因此我国货币政策还应加强调控的力度并且改善操作的均衡性,从而维护宏观经济的长期平稳增长。
[Abstract]:The significance of monetary policy to monetary stability and financial stability is extraordinary. How monetary policy pays attention to asset prices determines the effect of monetary policy on economic regulation efficiency and economic stability. Taking asset price into IS-LM-PC model and constructing monetary stability index and monetary policy loss function aiming at monetary stability and economic growth, the result shows that monetary stability index is expressed as inflation rate. The volatility of asset price and the weighted average of exchange rate can express the monetary and financial situation more accurately. The optimal monetary policy rules include the optimal interest rate rule and the optimal money supply rule. They should not only pay attention to the asset price, but also integrate them into the rule system more accurately. Using the data of China from the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2012 combined with the VAR method, the generalized moment estimation method, (GMM), state space variable parameter method, through empirical test, we conclude that China's interest rate policy and money supply mainly focus on output growth. Output growth has also been a central focus of China's monetary policy, but the response to asset prices such as the stock market and real estate has not been apparent. This suggests that central banks are not paying enough attention to factors such as asset price volatility, while central bank monetary policy has a clear focus on exchange rates. On the operational rules of monetary policy, the central bank has not publicly stated that it should abide by the interest rate rules, but the series of monetary policy operations carried out are in line with the optimal interest rate rules, and under the target system of monetary supply intermediation, The characteristics of the optimal money supply rules can be seen, and they are stable and consistent in reality. However, China's monetary policy in the forward-looking aspects have not been able to make significant achievements. Therefore, the monetary policy of our country should strengthen the regulation and control and improve the balance of operation, so as to maintain the long-term steady growth of the macro economy.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5;F224

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