我国创业板上市公司会计盈余与股价的相关分析

发布时间：2018-08-02 14:55

【摘要】：2009年10月30日,经国务院和中国证监会批准同意,首批28家企业在深圳证券交易所集体上市,这标志着我国创业板市场的正式开放。创业板的成立,不仅开拓了以高新技术为核心竞争力的创新型企业融资途径,而且为我国多层次资本市场翻开了崭新的一页。创业板市场中,由于上市公司规模较小、发展不稳定、投资风险大等特点,使其形成与主板市场不同的投资理念。作为创业板的投资者来说,如何利用上市公司的财务报表来客观准确地判断公司的投资价值就显得尤为重要了。而会计盈余作为反映企业经营状况的重要财务指标,己普遍成为投资者进行投资决策的基础。因此,对创业板上市公司会计盈余与股价的相关性研究,就有了十分重要的意义。本文首先简要阐述了会计盈余及股价的相关理论基础,深入分析了创业板上市公司会计盈余信息的主要内容和披露情况,并结合我国创业板上市公司自身特点及会计盈余的性质特征,从理论角度分析了创业板上市公司会计盈余信息对股价的可能性影响。在此基础上提出了研究假设和理论模型,本文选取了2010年符合相关条件的创业板上市公司共计84家作为样本,运用事项研究法,对创业板上市公司会计盈余与股价的相关性进行实证分析。其中以基本每股收益指标和扣除非经常性损益后每股收益指标作为自变量,将上市公司成长性指标作为控制变量,利用价格-会计盈余水平指标回归模型,分析财务报表中会计盈余与股价的关系,并比较分析两个盈余指标的决策有用性,为投资者的投资决策提供帮助,并为政府部门相关政策的制定及完善提供参考。本文研究结果表明,我国创业板市场会计盈余与股价显著相关,但扣除非经常性损益后每股收益指标与股价的相关性弱于基本每股收益指标,这可能是由于扣除非经常性损益后每股收益指标信息不显著,且投资者在实际操作分析时,有非理性投机现象；另外,可能和研究方法及样本量小,时间短等因素有关。针对以上问题,作者提出了一些政策建议。一方面通过完善相关制度来提高会计盈余的信息质量,并从创业板上市公司会计盈余信息披露的制定和规范角度提出：创业板上市公司应建立完善的信息披露体系；并定期提供企业成长性分析报告；将有效的会计盈余预测披露作为上市的重要条件等建议；另一方面对投资者增强理性投资提出相关建议：坚持长期投资理念；选择组合投资策略；确定投资比例。
[Abstract]:On October 30, 2009, with the approval of the State Council and CSRC, the first batch of 28 enterprises were listed collectively on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which marked the formal opening of the gem market in China. The establishment of the gem not only opens up the financing channels of innovative enterprises with high and new technology as the core competitiveness, but also opens a new page for our country's multi-level capital market. In the gem market, due to the small scale of listed companies, unstable development, large investment risk and other characteristics, it forms a different investment concept from the main board market. As a gem investor, it is very important to use the financial statements of listed companies to judge the investment value of companies objectively and accurately. As an important financial index, accounting surplus has become the basis for investors to make investment decisions. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the correlation between accounting earnings and stock price of listed companies in gem. Firstly, this paper briefly describes the theoretical basis of accounting earnings and stock price, and analyzes the main contents and disclosure of accounting earnings information of listed companies in gem. Combined with the characteristics of gem listed companies and the nature of accounting earnings, this paper analyzes the possibility of accounting earnings information on the share price of gem listed companies from the theoretical point of view. On this basis, the research hypothesis and theoretical model are put forward. In this paper, 84 listed companies on the gem in 2010 are selected as samples, and the method of event research is used. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the correlation between accounting earnings and stock price of listed companies in gem. Taking the basic earnings per share index and earnings per share index after deducting non-recurrent profit and loss as independent variables, taking the growth index of listed companies as control variable, the regression model of price-accounting surplus level index is used. This paper analyzes the relationship between accounting earnings and stock price in financial statements, and compares and analyzes the decision usefulness of the two earnings indicators, which can help investors to make investment decisions and provide references for the formulation and improvement of relevant policies of government departments. The results of this study show that the accounting earnings of gem market in China are significantly correlated with the stock price, but the correlation between earnings per share index and stock price is weaker than that of the basic earnings per share index after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. This may be due to the fact that the information of earnings per share is not significant after deducting non-recurrent gains and losses, and that investors have irrational speculation in actual operation analysis; in addition, it may be related to the small research methods and sample size, short time and other factors. In view of the above problems, the author puts forward some policy suggestions. On the one hand, improve the information quality of accounting surplus by perfecting the relevant system, and from the point of view of establishing and standardizing accounting earnings information disclosure of gem listed companies: the gem listed companies should establish a perfect information disclosure system; And provide the enterprise growth analysis report regularly; take the effective accounting earnings forecast and disclosure as the important condition of listing; on the other hand, put forward the relevant suggestions to the investors to enhance the rational investment: adhere to the long-term investment concept; Select the portfolio investment strategy; determine the proportion of investment.
【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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