基于宏观因素变动的中国股票市场估值研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 18:37

【摘要】：研究我国股票市场价格变动与宏观因素变动的关系,验证证券市场与实际经济活动之间波动规律,对于制定宏观调控政策、引导理性健康投资、理顺我国股市和实际经济之间的关系、促进国民经济的良好运行以及股市的健康规范发展,都具有非常重要的意义。本文通过股票的价值和成长性、宏观经济周期、通货膨胀、人民币升值与股市流通市值、货币的供应量与流动性等几个方面与股市的关系分析了股票的估值,这几个方面通过不同的传导途径对股票市场产生了不同的影响。研究表明,价值投资和成长性投资注重对上市公司的实际价值、盈利能力进行合理的分析,进而做出投资决策,而这种投资是建立在理性分析的基础上的。股票市场在实际国民经济中运行和发展,受到实体经济的影响。股市的周期应该与经济的周期保持一致的,但是由于我国的股市存在各种缺陷和不足,在有些阶段保持和经济运行同样的走势,通常在经济周期初期阶段,经济复苏和轻微通货膨胀时期,证券市场走势呈现与经济周期正相关。但到经济增长后期,通货膨胀不断严重时,证券市场与经济周期出现背离的态势。通货膨胀会引起商品相对价格的改变,从而对股票市场价格产生影响。在经济复苏的阶段,通货膨胀会出现温和上涨的态势,股市也会出现上涨。在经济过热时,股市往往与经济呈现负相关的关系。在经济回落时,通货膨胀得到控制,股市会上涨。而在经济萧条时,由于各种政策的存在,两者的关系不确定。人民币升值对资金面和实体经济都产生影响,从而影响股票估值。在短期内人民币升值主要改变了资金供需关系,长期内人民币升值将对不同行业上市公司的盈利产生影响。货币供应量主要通过资产组合效应、通货膨胀效应、预期效应和股票内在价值增长四个方面对股票价格产生影响。股票价格受到货币流动性的影响,而货币流动性受着货币政策的影响。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between the price change of the stock market and the change of macro factors, verifies the fluctuation law between the stock market and the actual economic activities, and guides the rational and healthy investment by formulating the macroeconomic regulation and control policy. It is of great significance to straighten out the relationship between the stock market and the real economy, to promote the good operation of the national economy and the healthy and standardized development of the stock market. This paper analyzes the stock valuation through the relationship between stock value and growth, macroeconomic cycle, inflation, RMB appreciation and market value, money supply and liquidity, etc. These aspects have different effects on the stock market through different transmission channels. The research shows that the value investment and the growth investment focus on the reasonable analysis of the actual value and profitability of the listed company, and then make the investment decision, which is based on the rational analysis. The stock market operates and develops in the actual national economy, is affected by the real economy. The stock market cycle should be consistent with the economic cycle, but due to the shortcomings and shortcomings of the stock market in China, in some stages to maintain the same trend as the economy, usually in the early stages of the economic cycle, During the period of economic recovery and mild inflation, the trend of the securities market is positively related to the economic cycle. However, in the latter stage of economic growth, the stock market deviates from the economic cycle when inflation becomes more and more serious. Inflation can cause changes in the relative prices of goods, which have an impact on stock market prices. In the recovery stage, inflation will show a moderate rise, the stock market will also rise. When the economy overheated, the stock market often presents the negative correlation with the economy. When the economy falls, inflation is contained and the stock market rises. In the economic depression, because of the existence of various policies, the relationship between the two is uncertain. The appreciation of the RMB has an impact on both the capital and the real economy, thus affecting stock valuations. In the short term, the appreciation of the RMB has mainly changed the relationship between supply and demand of funds. In the long run, the appreciation of the yuan will have an impact on the earnings of listed companies in different industries. Money supply affects stock price mainly through four aspects: portfolio effect, inflation effect, expected effect and intrinsic value increase of stock. Stock prices are influenced by monetary liquidity, which is influenced by monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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