离岸金融风险的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 17:15

【摘要】：我国离岸金融在“走出去”和开拓“两个市场”战略的推动下取得了一定的成果，同时也为我国企业开拓国际市场提供了全面的金融服务，但是离岸金融在迅速扩张的同时，也蕴含着较大的风险。因此，针对当前我国对离岸金融风险的意识比较薄弱，开展对离岸金融风险的研究具有较强的理论与现实意义。本文通过对国际国内有关离岸金融的研究现状分析，国内对于离岸金融风险的分析研究刚刚开始，大部分学者仅仅分析了发达国家离岸金融市场的监管经验，对离岸金融风险分析进行分析的文献不多。因此，，本文在前面学者研究的基础上，从实证角度较系统地研究了离岸金融风险的影响因素。首先全面介绍了离岸金融的形成原因和发展历程以及我国离岸金融的发展历程和特点，同时分析与界定了离岸金融风险；其次从理论方面对离岸金融风险进行分析，全面确定离岸金融风险的影响因素及各影响因素与离岸金融风险水平的关系；再次通过收集东南亚金融危机爆发前后东南亚各国有关变量的数据，对离岸金融风险的影响因素进行实证分析，验证理论分析结果的可行性和实用性，并对实证分析结果进行说明和解释；最后，在理论分析和实证分析的基础上，根据实证分析结果，给出防范和监控我国离岸金融风险水平的启示与建议。本文通过理论分析和实证研究发现，离岸金融市场的利率水平与离岸金融风险水平呈正相关关系，离岸金融市场利率水平的上升，会导致离岸金融风险水平上升；离岸金融机构之间的竞争程度加剧时，离岸金融风险水平也会上升；当资产价格被高估，产生泡沫经济时，特别是产生房地产价格泡沫时，离岸金融风险水平会上升；研究还发现在经济由上升转为下滑或者宏观经济环境变差时，离岸金融风险系数也会增大。本文在理论分析和实证分析离岸金融风险水平的基础上，结合我国当前离岸金融发展的现状，给出了防范和监控我国离岸金融风险的启示和建议，具体包括：加强离岸金融市场风险（利率风险、汇率风险）的监控、预防资产价格泡沫向离岸金融体系传导、明确监控主体、更新监管理念，创新监管方式、完善离岸金融监管的法律制度以及加强离岸金融风险监控的国际合作。
[Abstract]:China's offshore finance has made some achievements under the promotion of the strategy of "going out" and "opening up two markets", and at the same time, it has provided comprehensive financial services for Chinese enterprises to open up the international market, but offshore finance is expanding rapidly at the same time. There is also a greater risk. Therefore, in view of the weak awareness of offshore financial risk in China at present, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on offshore financial risk. This paper analyzes the current situation of offshore financial research at home and abroad. The domestic research on offshore financial risk has just begun. Most scholars only analyze the regulatory experience of offshore financial markets in developed countries. There is little literature on offshore financial risk analysis. Therefore, based on the previous research, this paper systematically studies the influencing factors of offshore financial risk from the perspective of empirical research. First of all, it introduces the formation and development of offshore finance, and the development process and characteristics of offshore finance in China. At the same time, it analyzes and defines the risk of offshore finance, and then analyzes the risk of offshore finance from the theoretical point of view. Comprehensively determine the influencing factors of offshore financial risk and the relationship between each influencing factor and the level of offshore financial risk. Thirdly, by collecting the data of the relevant variables of Southeast Asian countries before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, The influencing factors of offshore financial risk are empirically analyzed to verify the feasibility and practicability of the theoretical analysis results, and to explain and explain the empirical results. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, According to the results of empirical analysis, this paper gives some suggestions on how to prevent and monitor the offshore financial risk level in China. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper finds that the level of interest rate in offshore financial market is positively correlated with the level of offshore financial risk, and the rise of interest rate level of offshore financial market will lead to the rise of offshore financial risk level. When the degree of competition between offshore financial institutions intensifies, the level of offshore financial risk will also rise, when the asset price is overvalued, the level of offshore financial risk will rise when the asset price is overestimated, and the bubble economy, especially when the real estate price bubble is generated, the level of offshore financial risk will rise. The study also found that the offshore financial risk coefficient also increased when the economy changed from rising to falling or the macroeconomic environment became worse. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of offshore financial risk level, combined with the current situation of offshore financial development in China, this paper gives the enlightenment and suggestions to prevent and monitor offshore financial risk in China. It includes: strengthening the supervision of offshore financial market risk (interest rate risk, exchange rate risk), preventing asset price bubble from transmitting to offshore financial system, defining the main monitoring body, renewing the supervision idea, innovating the supervision mode, Improve the legal system of offshore financial supervision and strengthen international cooperation in offshore financial risk monitoring.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5

【参考文献】