我国风电行业金融风险研究

发布时间：2018-08-20 08:24

【摘要】：风电是我国重要的新能源，风电行业金融风险将会影响到我国能源战略的实施和经济转型升级的大局。此外，风电企业的经营资本大部分来自银行贷款或股权投资基金，二级市场上也有不少投资者持有风电上市公司的股票，若风电企业大面积破产将会使银行产生大量的不良贷款，也会使广大投资者蒙受巨大损失，影响我国金融体系的稳定。因此，对我国风电行业金融风险进行系统研究有着重要意义。本文先阐述我国风电行业的发展概况，分析风电整机制造业、风电开发商和风电服务业的风险状况及其成因。然后以国内12家风电龙头企业为行业代表，收集自2007年第一季度起至2012年第三季度23个季度财务报表，共27,048个数据，构建风电行业的资产负债表。接着，从资本结构错配风险、期限错配风险、营运能力风险和盈利能力风险四个角度量化分析风电行业静态金融风险。随后，，结合12家风电企业自2007年1月1日至2012年9月30日共17,256个股票交易数据，采用或有权益法通过MATLAB的迭代计算功能求得行业总资产市值及其波动率，从而构建风电行业或有资产负债表，实证研究风电行业的违约距离、违约概率和信用风险溢价等行业违约风险。最后，采用内容分析法，构造32个政策文本区间，定量研究自2000年以来的40份中央级别风电扶持政策，并结合风电行业金融风险的研究结论提出切实的政策建议。经过本文对风电行业基于存量、流动和市场信息的实证分析，得出：我国风电行业资产负债率较高、资产与负债期限存在错配，增长速度放缓、盈利能力下降，已经进入调整期和微利时代，行业金融风险集中体现在风电整机制造环节。风电行业从2011年第三季度至今信用风险持续恶化，违约概率和风险溢价不断上升，违约距离越来越小，金融风险显著。而且现行的风电扶持政策强制性政策使用过多，激励性政策使用不够，政策缺乏连续性与统一性。因此，本文建议从建立行业稳定基金、完善风电行业风险管理机制等方面管理好当前风电行业的金融风险，并通过完善风电行业扶持政策，促进行业健康发展来防范风电行业的金融风险。
[Abstract]:Wind power is an important new energy source in China. The financial risk of wind power industry will affect the implementation of energy strategy and the overall situation of economic transformation and upgrading. In addition, most of the operating capital of wind power enterprises comes from bank loans or equity investment funds. In the secondary market, many investors also hold shares of wind power listed companies. If wind power enterprises go bankrupt in a large area, the banks will produce a large number of non-performing loans, and investors will suffer huge losses, which will affect the stability of our financial system. Therefore, it is of great significance to systematically study the financial risk of wind power industry in China. This paper first describes the development situation of wind power industry in China, analyzes the risk situation and causes of wind turbine manufacturing industry, wind power developer and wind power service industry. Then take 12 domestic wind power leading enterprises as the industry representative, collected 23 quarter financial statements from the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2012, a total of 27048 data, constructs the balance sheet of the wind power industry. Then, the static financial risk of wind power industry is analyzed quantitatively from four aspects: capital structure mismatch risk, term mismatch risk, operating capacity risk and profitability risk. Then, based on the 17256 stock trading data of 12 wind power enterprises from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2012, the total market value of the industry and its volatility are obtained by using the contingent equity method through the iterative calculation function of MATLAB. In order to build a contingent balance sheet of wind power industry, empirical research wind power industry default distance, default probability and credit risk premium industry default risk. Finally, using content analysis method, 32 policy text intervals are constructed, 40 central wind power supporting policies are quantitatively studied since 2000, and practical policy recommendations are put forward based on the conclusion of wind power industry financial risk research. Through the empirical analysis of the wind power industry based on stock, flow and market information, it is concluded that the asset liability ratio of wind power industry in China is relatively high, the mismatch between assets and liabilities has existed, the growth rate has slowed down, and the profitability of wind power industry has declined. Has entered the adjustment period and small profit era, the industry financial risk concentrated in wind power machine manufacturing links. Since the third quarter of 2011, the credit risk in the wind power industry has continued to deteriorate, the probability of default and the risk premium have been rising, the distance of default is becoming smaller and smaller, and the financial risk is significant. Moreover, the current wind power support policy uses too much mandatory policy, incentive policy is not enough, the policy lacks continuity and unity. Therefore, this paper suggests to manage the financial risks of the current wind power industry from the aspects of establishing the industry stability fund and perfecting the risk management mechanism of the wind power industry, and through perfecting the supporting policy of the wind power industry, Promote the healthy development of the industry to prevent the financial risks of wind power industry.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F832.5

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