中国转轨进程中的货币扩张、货币结构变迁与资本品价格
发布时间：2018-08-22 20:18
【摘要】：中国转轨进程中伴随着市场化和货币化进程的推进,货币扩张是如何影响金融增长和资本品价格的?这是本文研究的核心问题。 由于中国经济转轨的特殊性,货币扩张具有不同于货币数量论意义上的经济后果,货币层面的变化也不仅仅是数量扩张,还有结构层面的变迁,这是同中国特有的金融体制相联系的。随着市场化的深入,货币化进程的推进,个人可支配收入的增长以及财富积累水平的增加,基于经济内生因素的货币需求和投资需求也会发生数量和结构上的变化,这样就会出现货币化路径和金融增长路径之间的微妙联系。 转轨经济的一个重要特点,同时也是我们合理的假设前提是,政府牢牢控制着金融资源等要素,政府拥有左右金融发展变迁路径的能力。在政府强大金融控制的情况下,货币扩张对资本品价格的影响会产生不同于主流经济模型描述的情况。我们要说明的正是：在政府外生金融控制力量非常强大的情况下,货币扩张以及货币结构的变迁是如何冲击资本品价格的。这对于正确理解中国的特殊货币现象和制定正确的金融政策有着重要的意义。 本文的研究思路、主要内容和结论如下：第一章,导言。介绍为什么要研究这个问题即：是货币推动了资产泡沫吗?已有的文献是如何来回答的,本文又是在这些研究的基础上如何进行研究、其研究的价值或创新之处。 第二章,中国的市场化转轨与货币化进程。本章较为详细地梳理了市场化转轨的内涵和特征；分析了市场化改革下的内生货币化进程及机制以及货币替代物匮乏下的货币数量扩张；阐释了中国货币化进程与资本品泡沫的产生。这包括资本市场货币化进程中的货币与资产价格关系和资本市场货币化的完结与资产价格膨胀。 第三章,中国的货币化进程、货币结构变迁与金融增长。中国的市场化改革带来的不仅仅是货币数量的扩张,还有货币结构的变迁。随着金融市场的发展和金融结构的优化,货币替代物越来越多,这对货币需求产生了重要的影响。在广义的货币系统中,高能货币、存款货币等与货币替代物之间的关系也不一样。货币与非货币金融资产之间既存在着互补关系,又存在着替代关系。扩展到宏观层面,货币扩张与货币结构的变迁也影响着金融增长和金融深化。 第四章,转轨进程中的金融控制、货币扩张与金融增长。按照内生金融演化理论,如果经济增长所积累的资本存量达到一定程度,大量具有规模经济的生产技术开始出现,货币等期限短、风险收益匹配单调的低级资产就不再满足社会经济中的内生金融需求,此时对收益-风险特征具有更高要求的金融资产需求就会扩大。这时候会存在一个潜在的内生力量来拉动金融市场发展。但是,在一个政府主导型的经济系统中,政府合意的金融发展路径不一定与社会福利最大化的金融发展路径相一致,政府主导的金融市场发展往往镶嵌在高额的货币存量之中。在这种情况下,转轨经济就会出现有别于主流金融发展理论中所描述的金融增长次序。本章就是按照转轨路径和经济增长路径继续前行,探索在转轨经济强大的金融控制下政府是如何安排金融制度,货币数量扩张是如何影响这一外生金融增长路径的,以及镶嵌在高额货币存量中的资本市场的宏观经济后果。 第五章,货币数量、货币结构与资本品价格：传导机制。本章较为系统地分析了货币扩张与资本品价格的作用机制和利率在货币与资本品价格传导机制中的作用、货币扩张的倒逼机制以及货币结构的变迁与资本品价格并且从资产泡沫化的另一个途径分析了土地财政、土地货币化与房地产价格。 第六章,中国货币扩张与资本品价格的实证检验：基于货币市场与资本市场的实证研究。本章主要是在VAR模型的基础上考虑了货币结构的流动中现金、活期存款、定期存款对股票和房地产价格的影响,并且给出了他们之间基于Cholesky分解的脉冲响应函数的动态分析。结论为：不同的货币形式对股票和房地产价格的动态影响是不一样的。我们不能笼统地说货币扩张对股票和房地产价格的影响,而是应该从货币的结构,即货币的不同的表现形式来看他们对股票和房地产价格的影响以及股票和房地产价格对货币不同表现的影响,从而能动态的刻画二者的变化机制,这对于我国政府如何更好地控制资产泡沫以及更好地促进经济的良性发展是十分有益的。 第七章,货币扩张与资产价格：货币政策含义。资产价格的波动对一国经济发展产生重要影响,2008年全球性的金融危机给我们提供了深刻的教训。资产泡沫的破灭引起居民消费需求的下降、相关产业的萧条以及政府财政的减少,危及整个经济。货币扩张与资产价格存在密切关系,货币政策应该关注资产价格,防止资产价格剧烈波动。 本文的价值所在,第一,对货币与资本品价格之间的关系进行了一个综合考察。如果说在成熟的、金融深化程度较高的经济系统中,货币与资本品之间存在着相互替代的Tobin效应和具有收入互补性的财富效应,那么在中国转轨进程中的货币化动态过程中,货币与资本品之间的关系则相对更加复杂,且具有动态性,不同的路径阶段有不同的机理联结；第二,结合中国转轨经济实践的特有货币金融的制度条件,建立一个动态一般均衡模型,来分析货币化与金融深化之间的关系；第三,对中国的数据进行实证检验。主要是从股票市场和房地产市场的视角来分析资本市场和货币市场之间的关系,利用VAR模型的优点,动态分析货币结构对股票价格和房地产价格之间关系,从而为政府部门关于货币发行的决策给出有益的建议。第四,货币政策涵义。当前占主流的通货膨胀目标制来看,资产价格并不在货币当局的目标集合内。但是随着金融市场的发展,金融创新工具的升级,货币当局的这一看法开始有所改变,尤其是刚刚发生的金融危机更加加深了货币当局对资产价格的警醒和认识。这是因为货币数量、通货膨胀与资产价格之间的关系变得越来越复杂,时间滞后性越来越难以捉摸。
[Abstract]:With the development of marketization and monetization in the process of China's transition, how does monetary expansion affect financial growth and capital prices? This is the core issue of this paper.
Because of the particularity of China's economic transition, monetary expansion has different economic consequences from monetary quantity theory. The change of monetary level is not only quantitative expansion, but also structural change, which is related to China's unique financial system. Increasing incomes and the level of wealth accumulation will result in quantitative and structural changes in money demand and investment demand based on economic endogenous factors, thus creating subtle links between monetization paths and financial growth paths.
An important feature of the transition economy and our reasonable assumption is that the government firmly controls the financial resources and other factors, and the government has the ability to influence the path of financial development and change. What we want to say is: how the monetary expansion and the change of monetary structure impact the price of capital goods under the strong external financial control of the government. It is of great significance to understand China's special monetary phenomenon correctly and formulate correct financial policies.
The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: Chapter 1, Introduction. Introduce why we should study this question: Is money driving asset bubbles? How do the existing literature answer this question? This paper is based on these studies how to study, the value or innovation of the study.
Chapter 2, China's market-oriented transition and monetization process. This chapter combs the connotation and characteristics of market-oriented transition in detail; analyzes the process and mechanism of endogenous monetization under market-oriented reform and the expansion of money quantity under the lack of money substitutes; and explains the process of China's monetization and the emergence of capital product bubbles. It includes the relationship between money and asset price in the process of capital market monetization and the end of capital market monetization and asset price inflation.
In the third chapter, the process of China's monetization, the change of monetary structure and financial growth. China's market-oriented reform not only brings about the expansion of the amount of money, but also the change of monetary structure. In the monetary system, the relationship between high-energy money, deposit money and monetary substitutes is different. There are complementary and substitutive relationships between money and non-monetary financial assets.
According to the theory of endogenous financial evolution, if the capital stock accumulated by economic growth reaches a certain degree, a large number of production technologies with economies of scale begin to appear, such as money, etc. are short, the low-grade assets with monotonous risk-return matching can no longer meet the needs of social economy. There is a potential endogenous force to drive the development of financial markets. However, in a government-led economic system, the government's desirable path of financial development does not necessarily maximize social welfare. In this case, the transition economy will appear different from the financial growth order described in the mainstream financial development theory. This chapter is to continue to move forward in accordance with the transition path and economic growth path, and explore the transition economy. How does the government arrange the financial system under the strong financial control, how does the monetary expansion affect this exogenous financial growth path, and the macroeconomic consequences of the capital market embedded in the high monetary stock.
Chapter five, the quantity of money, the structure of money and the price of capital goods: transmission mechanism. This chapter systematically analyzes the mechanism of money expansion and the price of capital goods and the role of interest rate in the transmission mechanism of money and capital goods, the mechanism of currency expansion and the mechanism of currency expansion, the change of monetary structure and the price of capital goods, and from asset bubbles. Another way to solve the problem is land finance, land monetization and real estate prices.
Chapter 6, Empirical Test of China's Monetary Expansion and Capital Price: Empirical Research Based on Money Market and Capital Market. This chapter mainly considers the influence of cash, demand deposit and time deposit on the stock and real estate prices in the currency structure on the basis of VAR model, and gives the Chomsky score between them. The dynamic analysis of the impulse response function of the solution shows that different currency forms have different dynamic effects on stock and real estate prices. The influence of property price and the influence of stock and real estate prices on the different performance of money can dynamically depict the change mechanism of the two, which is very useful for our government how to better control the asset bubble and better promote the healthy development of the economy.
Chapter 7, Monetary Expansion and Asset Price: Implications of Monetary Policy. The fluctuation of asset prices has an important impact on a country's economic development. The 2008 global financial crisis has provided us with a profound lesson. There is a close relationship between monetary expansion and asset prices. Monetary policy should pay attention to asset prices to prevent sharp fluctuations in asset prices.
The value of this paper lies in, first, a comprehensive study of the relationship between money and the price of capital goods. If there is a Tobin effect of mutual substitution and a wealth effect of income complementarity between money and capital goods in a mature and highly financial deepening economic system, then the goods in the process of China's transition. In the dynamic process of monetization, the relationship between money and capital goods is relatively more complex and dynamic, and there are different mechanism links in different stages of the path; secondly, a dynamic general equilibrium model is established to analyze the relationship between monetization and financial deepening based on the peculiar monetary and financial system conditions of China's economic transition practice. Thirdly, the paper carries on the empirical test to the data of China. It mainly analyzes the relationship between the capital market and the money market from the perspective of the stock market and the real estate market. Fourth, the implication of monetary policy. Currently the dominant inflation targeting system shows that asset prices are not within the target set of monetary authorities. This is because the relationship between monetary quantity, inflation and asset prices has become more and more complex and the time lag has become increasingly elusive.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5;F224
本文编号：2198191
[Abstract]:With the development of marketization and monetization in the process of China's transition, how does monetary expansion affect financial growth and capital prices? This is the core issue of this paper.
Because of the particularity of China's economic transition, monetary expansion has different economic consequences from monetary quantity theory. The change of monetary level is not only quantitative expansion, but also structural change, which is related to China's unique financial system. Increasing incomes and the level of wealth accumulation will result in quantitative and structural changes in money demand and investment demand based on economic endogenous factors, thus creating subtle links between monetization paths and financial growth paths.
An important feature of the transition economy and our reasonable assumption is that the government firmly controls the financial resources and other factors, and the government has the ability to influence the path of financial development and change. What we want to say is: how the monetary expansion and the change of monetary structure impact the price of capital goods under the strong external financial control of the government. It is of great significance to understand China's special monetary phenomenon correctly and formulate correct financial policies.
The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: Chapter 1, Introduction. Introduce why we should study this question: Is money driving asset bubbles? How do the existing literature answer this question? This paper is based on these studies how to study, the value or innovation of the study.
Chapter 2, China's market-oriented transition and monetization process. This chapter combs the connotation and characteristics of market-oriented transition in detail; analyzes the process and mechanism of endogenous monetization under market-oriented reform and the expansion of money quantity under the lack of money substitutes; and explains the process of China's monetization and the emergence of capital product bubbles. It includes the relationship between money and asset price in the process of capital market monetization and the end of capital market monetization and asset price inflation.
In the third chapter, the process of China's monetization, the change of monetary structure and financial growth. China's market-oriented reform not only brings about the expansion of the amount of money, but also the change of monetary structure. In the monetary system, the relationship between high-energy money, deposit money and monetary substitutes is different. There are complementary and substitutive relationships between money and non-monetary financial assets.
According to the theory of endogenous financial evolution, if the capital stock accumulated by economic growth reaches a certain degree, a large number of production technologies with economies of scale begin to appear, such as money, etc. are short, the low-grade assets with monotonous risk-return matching can no longer meet the needs of social economy. There is a potential endogenous force to drive the development of financial markets. However, in a government-led economic system, the government's desirable path of financial development does not necessarily maximize social welfare. In this case, the transition economy will appear different from the financial growth order described in the mainstream financial development theory. This chapter is to continue to move forward in accordance with the transition path and economic growth path, and explore the transition economy. How does the government arrange the financial system under the strong financial control, how does the monetary expansion affect this exogenous financial growth path, and the macroeconomic consequences of the capital market embedded in the high monetary stock.
Chapter five, the quantity of money, the structure of money and the price of capital goods: transmission mechanism. This chapter systematically analyzes the mechanism of money expansion and the price of capital goods and the role of interest rate in the transmission mechanism of money and capital goods, the mechanism of currency expansion and the mechanism of currency expansion, the change of monetary structure and the price of capital goods, and from asset bubbles. Another way to solve the problem is land finance, land monetization and real estate prices.
Chapter 6, Empirical Test of China's Monetary Expansion and Capital Price: Empirical Research Based on Money Market and Capital Market. This chapter mainly considers the influence of cash, demand deposit and time deposit on the stock and real estate prices in the currency structure on the basis of VAR model, and gives the Chomsky score between them. The dynamic analysis of the impulse response function of the solution shows that different currency forms have different dynamic effects on stock and real estate prices. The influence of property price and the influence of stock and real estate prices on the different performance of money can dynamically depict the change mechanism of the two, which is very useful for our government how to better control the asset bubble and better promote the healthy development of the economy.
Chapter 7, Monetary Expansion and Asset Price: Implications of Monetary Policy. The fluctuation of asset prices has an important impact on a country's economic development. The 2008 global financial crisis has provided us with a profound lesson. There is a close relationship between monetary expansion and asset prices. Monetary policy should pay attention to asset prices to prevent sharp fluctuations in asset prices.
The value of this paper lies in, first, a comprehensive study of the relationship between money and the price of capital goods. If there is a Tobin effect of mutual substitution and a wealth effect of income complementarity between money and capital goods in a mature and highly financial deepening economic system, then the goods in the process of China's transition. In the dynamic process of monetization, the relationship between money and capital goods is relatively more complex and dynamic, and there are different mechanism links in different stages of the path; secondly, a dynamic general equilibrium model is established to analyze the relationship between monetization and financial deepening based on the peculiar monetary and financial system conditions of China's economic transition practice. Thirdly, the paper carries on the empirical test to the data of China. It mainly analyzes the relationship between the capital market and the money market from the perspective of the stock market and the real estate market. Fourth, the implication of monetary policy. Currently the dominant inflation targeting system shows that asset prices are not within the target set of monetary authorities. This is because the relationship between monetary quantity, inflation and asset prices has become more and more complex and the time lag has become increasingly elusive.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5;F224
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 杨新松;中国货币政策的股票市场传导机制研究[D];复旦大学;2006年
，本文编号：2198191
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