基于EVA和董事会治理的上市公司财务困境预警研究

发布时间：2018-08-29 19:15

【摘要】：进入21新世纪,经济全球化的趋势给我国市场经济的发展带来了巨大的影响,在越来越激烈的竞争压力下,发生财务困境甚至破产的公司也越来越多,对此我们不得不给予高度的关注。为了防范企业财务困境的发生,同时避免给投资者、债权人、公司员工、银行等金融机构等利益相关者带来巨大损失,我们必须构建出一个有效的财务困境预警模型。通过这个模型的构建,企业的经营管理者能够及时发现提前显现出的危险信号并分析其产生的原因,然后及早采取应对措施避免企业陷入财务困境甚至最终破产。大量阅读国外学者的相关研究文献后不难发现,他们主要根据公司是否破产来判断它是否发生财务困境。根据我国学者的研究和我国企业的实际情况,本文认为财务困境是一个动态的过程,有一个逐步恶化的过程,它包括企业从轻微的财务状况异常到破产这一过程中的各种情况。本文在实证研究部分则主要借鉴大多数国内学者的做法,将我国上市公司中被特别处理的公司(包括ST和*ST公司)作为财务困境公司进行研究。本文在对财务困境及其预警的有关内容进行概述、并对EVA和董事会治理与财务困境预警的关系进行了基理分析后,将我国深沪市A股公司中在2012年公布的年报中由于财务状况异常(尤其是连续两年亏损)而被特殊处理的38家公司(包含ST和*ST公司)界定为财务困境公司,并按照行业和资产规模相同或相近的标准选取了38家正常公司作为配对样本进行研究。在对初选的传统财务指标、EVA类指标以及董事会治理变量进行显著性差异检验和相关性分析后,一共三次运用logistic回归分别建立了三个预警模型。第一次回归是将筛选后的传统的财务指标引入模型中,第二次回归是在前一次回归得到的模型基础上加入EVA类指标进行模型的构建,第三次则是在第二次回归模型的基础上加入董事会治理变量,然后分别比较三次回归的结果,结果显示三次回归的模型判断准确率分别为81.6%、84.2%和89.5%,表明同时将EVA和董事会治理变量引入财务困境预警模型中是可行并有效的。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the trend of economic globalization has brought great influence to the development of market economy in our country. Under the pressure of more and more fierce competition, more and more companies have financial distress or even bankruptcy. We have to pay high attention to this. In order to prevent the financial distress of enterprises and avoid to bring huge losses to the stakeholders such as investors, creditors, employees, banks and other financial institutions, we must build an effective financial distress warning model. Through the construction of this model, the managers of the enterprise can find out the danger signals in advance and analyze the causes, and then take early measures to prevent the enterprises from falling into financial distress or even finally going bankrupt. It is not difficult to find out whether the company is in financial distress based on whether the company is bankrupt or not. According to the research of Chinese scholars and the actual situation of enterprises in our country, this paper holds that financial distress is a dynamic process and has a gradual deterioration process, which includes all kinds of situations in the process of enterprise from slight abnormal financial condition to bankruptcy. In the part of empirical research, this paper mainly draws lessons from the practice of most domestic scholars, and studies the listed companies (including ST and St companies) as financial distress companies in our country. This paper summarizes the contents of financial distress and its early warning, and makes a basic analysis of the relationship between EVA, board governance and early warning of financial distress. The 38 A-share companies (including ST and St companies) that were specially treated in the annual report of Shenzhen Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2012 due to their abnormal financial position (especially the losses for two consecutive years) were defined as financial distress companies. According to the same or similar industry and asset size, 38 normal companies were selected as paired samples. After the significant difference test and correlation analysis of the traditional financial index and board governance variables, three early warning models were established by using logistic regression. The first regression is to introduce the traditional financial indexes into the model, and the second regression is to build the model by adding the EVA index to the model obtained from the previous regression. The third is to add the governing variables of the board of directors on the basis of the second regression model, and then compare the results of the third regression respectively. The results show that the accuracy of the three regression models is 81.6% and 84.2%, respectively. The results show that it is feasible and effective to introduce EVA and board governance variables into the financial distress warning model at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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