我国上市公司财务状况对商业银行贷款决策的影响

发布时间：2018-09-06 13:01

【摘要】：商业银行作为金融体系的核心,在经济运行中发挥着不可或缺的作用。而信贷业务是商业银行的传统核心业务,同时也是商业银行的主要盈利来源之一。银行为保证借贷资金的安全,必须对借款者的资信进行严格考核,选择优质客户,并作出理性的贷款决策。虽然我国早期出台了一系列的改革措施促使商业银行的不良资产率从2002年末的25%下降到2012年初的0.94%,但从2012年起,不良贷款情况又趋于恶化。根据银监会中国银行业运行报告的数据显示,截止2012年第四季度末,商业银行不良贷款余额达到了4929亿元,已经连续5个季度处于反弹状态。这表明我国商业银行的信贷资产质量依然存在着隐患。据此,为了降低贷款企业违约可能,控制银行信贷风险,银行需对企业作出一定的监督,通过调查企业的财务状况、经营活动判断企业是否能按时足额的偿还借款。在众多信息考核中,企业的财务指标对于商业银行的贷款决策起着重要的作用。而上市公司在很大程度上代表了我国企业的发展情况,鉴于上市公司的重要性和数据的可获得性,本文通过对上市公司的财务指标进行多角度分析,判断其对银行信贷决策的影响。具体来说主要从上市公司财务指标对商业银行授信与否、贷款规模以及贷款类型等方面的影响进行探讨。通过本文的实证研究,既可以考察商业银行在贷款决策中是否科学理性,又可以反映出商业银行进行贷款审批决策时主要关注的财务指标以及获得贷款的上市公司的财务特征。最后再根据实证结果分析,从商业银行现实情况出发,本文对其信贷决策、风险控制上提出了相关政策建议。由于2009年-2010年中央银行基准利率较为稳定,本文采用在此期间成功获得过商业银行贷款的A股上市公司作为数据样本。同时本文也以银行经常采用的主要财务比率来衡量公司的财务状况,主要包括偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、收益质量、成长能力五大类的财务指标数据。于是,本文采用逻辑回归和最小二乘法回归的方法做相关性实证,整个过程使用SPSS16.0进行分析,并就其反映出的问题做出相应的政策建议。因此,文章的实证研究主要分为三部分,第一部分用Logistic研究商业银行授信与否的决策与上市公司财务状况的相关性。第二部分用OLS回归分析,对长短期贷款规模与财务状况的相关性进行实证研究；第三部分依然使用OLS回归分析,考察长短期贷款类型与财务状况是否具有相关性。最后,本文的实证结果表明,商业银行是否发放贷款的决策与上市公司的财务状况并不存在显著相关性,但贷款规模与财务状况的相关性较为显著,相比于长期贷款来说,短期贷款与财务状况具有更为强烈的显著性。此外,在贷款类型上,信用借款对财务状况的敏感性比较强,而担保借款类(保证、抵押借款)则与财务状况的相关性并不十分显著。这与胡奕明(2006)所得出的贷款类型与财务状况并无显著相关性的结论有所不同。同时,通过实证结果我们还发现,商业银行在短期贷款审批时忽略了借款人运营能力方面的财务指标分析,长期借款中,商业银行对上市公司盈利能力方面的指标也并非很重视。据此,我们从商业银行的信贷体系的角度出发,针对发现的问题提出了一定的建议,对信贷市场的完善具有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:As the core of the financial system, commercial banks play an indispensable role in the economic operation. Credit business is the traditional core business of commercial banks, but also one of the main sources of profit for commercial banks. Although a series of reform measures were introduced in the early stage of China to reduce the non-performing assets ratio of commercial banks from 25% at the end of 2002 to 0.94% at the beginning of 2012, the situation of non-performing loans has deteriorated since 2012. The balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks has reached 492.9 billion yuan, which has rebounded for five consecutive quarters. This indicates that the quality of credit assets of commercial banks in China still exists hidden dangers.
Therefore, in order to reduce the possibility of default and control the risk of bank credit, banks need to make certain supervision to enterprises. Through investigating the financial situation of enterprises, business activities can judge whether enterprises can repay loans in full and on time. In view of the importance of listed companies and the availability of data, this paper makes a multi-angle analysis of the financial indicators of listed companies to determine their impact on bank credit decisions. The empirical research in this paper can not only examine whether commercial banks are scientific and rational in loan decision-making, but also reflect the main financial indicators of commercial banks in loan approval decision-making and the financial characteristics of listed companies to obtain loans. Then, according to the analysis of the empirical results and the reality of commercial banks, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on credit decision-making and risk control.
As the benchmark interest rate of the central bank is relatively stable from 2009 to 2010, this paper uses A-share listed companies that have successfully obtained commercial bank loans during this period as data samples. This paper uses the methods of logistic regression and least squares regression to do correlation empirical research. The whole process uses SPSS16.0 to analyze and make corresponding policy recommendations on the problems it reflects. The second part uses OLS regression analysis to make an empirical study on the correlation between the size of long-term and short-term loans and the financial situation of listed companies; the third part still uses OLS regression analysis to examine the correlation between the types of long-term and short-term loans and the financial situation.
Finally, the empirical results show that there is no significant correlation between the decision-making of commercial banks whether to grant loans and the financial situation of listed companies, but the correlation between loan size and financial situation is more significant. Credit loans are more sensitive to financial conditions, while guaranteed loans (guaranteed loans, mortgages) are not significantly related to financial conditions. This is different from Hu Yiming's conclusion that the types of loans obtained in 2006 are not significantly related to financial conditions. In the examination and approval of the term loan, the analysis of the financial indicators of the borrower's operational ability is neglected. In the long-term loan, commercial banks do not attach much importance to the indicators of the listed company's profitability. Therefore, from the perspective of the commercial bank's credit system, we put forward some suggestions to solve the problems found and perfect the credit market. It can be used for reference.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F832.51;F275

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