我国地方政府债务风险传导机制研究
发布时间：2018-09-08 18:47
【摘要】：美国次贷危机与欧洲主权债务危机的相续爆发,使得政府债务风险问题成为世界各国关注的焦点。而处在经济转型期的中国,随着经济的发展和经济体制改革的不断深入,地方政府的收支缺口越来越大,债务规模迅速膨胀从而导致我国的地方政府债务风险逐渐显现,地方政府债务逾期时有发生,地方经济发展过分依赖地方政府债务。在此背景下,如不对我国地方政府债务进行科学有效的防范与化解,将引发地方政府债务危机进而引发金融危机甚至社会危机。如何科学地监测地方政府债务风险的形成及传导,根据各个层级地方政府债务风险的形成以及传导状况,如何及时有效地、动态地、关联地防止地方政府债务风险大范围、大规模地进行传导,成为本文研究的主题。在上述背景下,本文将我国地方政府债务风险作为研究对象。 文章首先界定了我国地方政府、地方政府债务风险、传导机制等核心概念,在回顾已有和相关文献的基础上,借助我国审计署、中国人民银行以及银监会的相关数据对比分析了我国地方政府债务的产生发展状况、我国地方政府债务风险的现状及识别。 然后,对我国地方政府债务风险传导机制各个构成要素进行了定性识别与分析,在此基础上阐释了我国地方政府债务风险传导机制的内在机理。 再次,借助我国审计署、中国人民银行以及银监会的相关数据并运用博弈的分析方法从内部、外部两个方面演绎验证了我国地方政府债务风险传导的过程。结论显示：内部传导主要有三种情况,即我国分税制的财政体制使得政府的财政权和事权极不匹配,导致了我国地方政府债务风险自下级政府向上级政府传导；在我国现有的行政制度下上级政府的较高的行政权力为地方政府债务风险自上级政府向下级政府传导提供了绝对的优势；同级政府之间的债务风险传导往往是通过税负以及财政竞争进行传导的；外部传导主要有两种情况即地方政府债务风险通过地方政府融资平台、企业(主要是当地的国有企业)以及当地的金融机构之间债务风险的累积从而在政府与市场之间进行的正向以及逆向传导。 最后从我国地方政府债务风险传导的视角出发,结合现实情况提出我国地方政府债务风险防范和化解的对策和建议：有效控制地方政府债务风险传导的风险源；加强对地方政府债务风险传导载体的管理；围堵地方政府债务风险传导路径；建立风险预警系统加强对风险传导过程的监控。
[Abstract]:With the continuous outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the issue of government debt risk has become the focus of attention all over the world. With the development of economy and the deepening of economic system reform, the gap of local government's income and expenditure is getting bigger and bigger, and the scale of debt expands rapidly, which leads to the local government's debt risk appearing gradually. Local government debt is often overdue, local economic development too dependent on local government debt. Under this background, if we do not prevent and resolve the local government debt scientifically and effectively, it will lead to the local government debt crisis and even the financial crisis and even the social crisis. How to scientifically monitor the formation and transmission of local government debt risk, according to the formation and transmission of local government debt risk at all levels, how to prevent the local government debt risk in a large range in a timely, effective, dynamic and related manner. Conducting in large scale has become the subject of this paper. Under the above background, this article regards the local government debt risk as the research object. Firstly, the paper defines the core concepts of local government, local government debt risk, transmission mechanism and so on. On the basis of reviewing the existing and relevant literature, the article makes use of the Audit Office of our country. The data of the people's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission compare and analyze the development of the local government debt, the status quo and identification of the risk of the local government debt in China. Then, the author identifies and analyzes the elements of local government debt risk transmission mechanism qualitatively, and then explains the internal mechanism of local government debt risk transmission mechanism. Thirdly, with the help of the relevant data from the Audit Office of China, the people's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission, and using the game analysis method, this paper deduces and verifies the process of risk transmission of local government debt in China from two aspects: internal and external. The conclusion shows that there are three main cases of internal transmission: the financial system of tax distribution makes the government's financial power and power mismatch, which leads to the transmission of local government debt risk from the lower government to the higher government; Under the present administrative system of our country, the higher administrative power of the higher level government provides the absolute superiority for the local government to transmit the debt risk from the superior government to the lower government. The transmission of debt risk between government at the same level is often conducted through tax burden and financial competition. There are two main external transmission cases: local government debt risk through local government financing platform. The accumulation of debt risk between enterprises (mainly local state-owned enterprises) and local financial institutions, thus conducting both positive and negative transmission between the government and the market. Finally, from the perspective of local government debt risk transmission, combined with the actual situation, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk: effectively control the risk source of local government debt risk transmission; Strengthen the management of the local government debt risk transmission carrier; surround the local government debt risk transmission path; establish a risk early warning system to strengthen the risk transmission process monitoring.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5
本文编号：2231378
[Abstract]:With the continuous outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the issue of government debt risk has become the focus of attention all over the world. With the development of economy and the deepening of economic system reform, the gap of local government's income and expenditure is getting bigger and bigger, and the scale of debt expands rapidly, which leads to the local government's debt risk appearing gradually. Local government debt is often overdue, local economic development too dependent on local government debt. Under this background, if we do not prevent and resolve the local government debt scientifically and effectively, it will lead to the local government debt crisis and even the financial crisis and even the social crisis. How to scientifically monitor the formation and transmission of local government debt risk, according to the formation and transmission of local government debt risk at all levels, how to prevent the local government debt risk in a large range in a timely, effective, dynamic and related manner. Conducting in large scale has become the subject of this paper. Under the above background, this article regards the local government debt risk as the research object. Firstly, the paper defines the core concepts of local government, local government debt risk, transmission mechanism and so on. On the basis of reviewing the existing and relevant literature, the article makes use of the Audit Office of our country. The data of the people's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission compare and analyze the development of the local government debt, the status quo and identification of the risk of the local government debt in China. Then, the author identifies and analyzes the elements of local government debt risk transmission mechanism qualitatively, and then explains the internal mechanism of local government debt risk transmission mechanism. Thirdly, with the help of the relevant data from the Audit Office of China, the people's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission, and using the game analysis method, this paper deduces and verifies the process of risk transmission of local government debt in China from two aspects: internal and external. The conclusion shows that there are three main cases of internal transmission: the financial system of tax distribution makes the government's financial power and power mismatch, which leads to the transmission of local government debt risk from the lower government to the higher government; Under the present administrative system of our country, the higher administrative power of the higher level government provides the absolute superiority for the local government to transmit the debt risk from the superior government to the lower government. The transmission of debt risk between government at the same level is often conducted through tax burden and financial competition. There are two main external transmission cases: local government debt risk through local government financing platform. The accumulation of debt risk between enterprises (mainly local state-owned enterprises) and local financial institutions, thus conducting both positive and negative transmission between the government and the market. Finally, from the perspective of local government debt risk transmission, combined with the actual situation, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk: effectively control the risk source of local government debt risk transmission; Strengthen the management of the local government debt risk transmission carrier; surround the local government debt risk transmission path; establish a risk early warning system to strengthen the risk transmission process monitoring.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5
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