后危机时代公债风险防范研究

发布时间：2018-09-14 06:59

【摘要】：公债的发行在弥补财政赤字方面发挥了重要作用，其对宏观经济及金融业、银行业都有深远的影响。公债风险是公债研究领域的重要课题.。1979年，，我国开始举借外债，1981年发行内债。从此，公债规模愈来愈大。庞大的债务引发了激烈的争论。关于中国公债的研究很早以前就开始了，并且在学术领域取得了很多成果。我国对于公债功能的认识和运用正在逐步走向完善。在后危机时代，很多国家都面临着公债风险问题。所以，为了保证公债规模和经济的可持续增长，实施有效的财政政策，加强税收制度、金融部门和经济结构的改革变得更加迫切。本文试图从风险角度对我国公债问题进行全方位的分析和研究，以期能够找到后危机时代公债风险防范的有效路径。本文首先回顾了我国公债制度的发展历程，然后简要分析了后危机时代公债风险的新变化。论文认为，公债有财政和货币的双重属性，因而其风险表现为财政风险和货币风险两个层面，需加以必要的监控和防范。公债是财政政策和货币政策的结合点，研究公债规模对于财政政策与货币政策的有效协调极其必要。论文使用相关经济数据及风险指标分析了我国的公债的风险现状，并运用VAR模型探讨了我国的公债规模的变化情况。最后提出了发展和完善我国公债政策和相关财税政策、防范公债风险的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The issuance of government bonds has played an important role in making up the deficit, which has far-reaching effects on the macroeconomic, financial and banking sectors. The risk of public debt is an important subject in the field of public debt research. In 1979, China began to borrow foreign debt and issued domestic debt in 1981. Since then, the size of the public debt is getting bigger and bigger. The huge debt caused a heated debate. Research on Chinese government bonds began long ago and has yielded a lot of academic success. China's understanding and use of the function of public debt is gradually moving towards perfection. In the post-crisis era, many countries are faced with the risk of public debt problems. Therefore, in order to ensure the size of public debt and sustainable economic growth, the implementation of effective fiscal policies, the strengthening of the tax system, the financial sector and economic structure reform has become more urgent. This paper attempts to analyze and study the problem of public debt in China from the risk point of view in order to find an effective way to prevent the risk of public debt in the post-crisis era. This paper first reviews the history of the development of China's public debt system, and then briefly analyzes the new changes in the risk of public debt in the post-crisis era. The paper holds that public debt has the dual attributes of finance and currency, so its risk is manifested in two levels: fiscal risk and monetary risk, which need to be monitored and prevented. Public debt is the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is necessary to study the scale of public debt for the effective coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. In this paper, we use relevant economic data and risk indicators to analyze the current situation of public debt risk in China, and use VAR model to study the change of public debt scale in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to develop and perfect our country's public debt policy and related fiscal and taxation policies, and to guard against the risk of public debt.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

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