业绩预告前期投资者关注对股价变动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 08:49

【摘要】：在我国的资本市场中,会计信息有着十分重要的作用。对于正确的信息的维护、信息效率的提高和保护投资者的关键利益,有利于实现资源的优化配置。在上市公司对定期财务报告公布之前,随着信息系统的预测功能,具有初步预测性能的信息对投资者公布的正式调查结果有着显著的改变,以帮助投资者获得理性决策。作为一个有用的提前公布的财务报告,业绩预告可以使得投资者及时得到信息,并且减少信息在投资者之间的不相等,对控制内部交易的资本市场信息也起到了一定程度上的作用,而且有利于资本市场的公平与效率的实现。由于它能提高信息的预测,人们对它关注越来越多,它的作用已逐步显现出来。本文用网络论坛的超额发帖量和超额点击量作为投资者关注的代理变量,以2011-2014年间的创业板上市公司管理层业绩预告事件为样本。首先,在上市公司业绩预告公布之前的交易日内,网络论坛的平均超额发帖量和超额点击量逐渐增加。这表明了投资者的信息需求行为日益增加,而且投资者具有信息获取能力。本文接下来进一步探讨投资者关注是否能够影响未来股价对业绩预告的反应。探析结果显示业绩预告前期的投资者的发帖行为和关注行为会对股票未来股价变动产生影响,且这种影响是逐渐减弱的。这也再次说明了上市公司业绩预告的重要性。通过对一些提出的问题和存在的现实相结合,进行实证研究以及规范业绩预告的质量,以提供改善业绩预告制度的措施进行参考。
[Abstract]:In China's capital market, accounting information plays a very important role. For the maintenance of correct information, the improvement of information efficiency and the protection of the key interests of investors, it is helpful to realize the optimal allocation of resources. With the forecasting function of the information system, the information with preliminary prediction performance has a significant change to the official survey results published by investors, so as to help investors to make rational decisions before the release of periodic financial reports by listed companies. As a useful pre-release financial report, performance forecasts enable investors to receive information in a timely manner and reduce information inequality among investors. It also plays a certain role in controlling the capital market information of internal transaction, and is beneficial to the realization of equity and efficiency of capital market. Because it can improve the prediction of information, people pay more and more attention to it. In this paper, the over-posting and over-click of online forums are used as the proxy variables concerned by investors, and the management performance forecasting event of gem listed companies in 2011-2014 is taken as a sample. First of all, in the trading day before the announcement of the earnings forecast of listed companies, the average number of over-posted posts and the number of over-clicks of online forums gradually increased. This indicates that the information demand behavior of investors is increasing day by day, and investors have the ability to obtain information. This paper further discusses whether investor concerns can influence the reaction of future stock prices to earnings forecasts. The results show that the investors' posting behavior and attention behavior in the early stage of performance forecast will have an impact on the future stock price movements, and this effect is gradually weakened. This also shows the importance of listed company performance forecast again. Through the combination of some problems and the existing reality, this paper makes an empirical study and standardizes the quality of performance forecast, in order to provide the measures to improve the performance forecast system for reference.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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