企业年金成本测算及敏感性分析
发布时间：2018-11-20 16:12
【摘要】：本文首先分析了我国老龄化进程以及企业年金发展现状。接着，从年金精算概念入手，明确了累算权益成本法与预计给付成本法两大类成本测算思路，并比较两者在计算方法和缴费压力上的异同。分别建立了预计单位福利法（工作贡献的增加能获得更高的年金给付）、个体水平成本法（企业年金的正常成本固定不变或者是工资收入的某一比率）、总体水平成本法（站在企业年金所有参与人的角度而非个体角度）等三种方法的测算模型。说明了三种计算模型的思路以及计算公式。选择以个人视角出发的预计单位福利法和个体水平成本法进行实证分析。结合发达国家年金市场的经验以及资本市场的实际运行情况，，对年金测算过程中所需的各相关参数进行假设，包括生存概率、贴现率、预期退休给付的工资替代率、工资增长率、投资回报率等。再结合某公司的实际人力资源相关数据（年龄、性别、入职年限、工资）等，测算该公司的年金成本。并按照不同投资风格（保守、平衡、积极）回报率的假设测算年金缴费压力。从折现率、工资增长率、替代率等方面入手对企业年金缴费成本进行敏感性分析。
[Abstract]:This paper first analyzes the aging process and the current situation of enterprise annuity development in China. Then, starting with the concept of annuity actuarial, this paper clarifies the two kinds of cost calculation ideas of accrual equity cost method and expected payment cost method, and compares the similarities and differences between them in calculation method and payment pressure. The expected unit benefit law (the increase of work contribution can obtain higher annuity payment), the individual level cost method (the normal cost of enterprise annuity is fixed or a certain ratio of salary income) is established separately. The total horizontal cost method (standing in the perspective of all participants in the enterprise annuity rather than the individual perspective) is used to measure the three models. The train of thought and calculation formula of three kinds of calculation models are explained. This paper chooses the expected unit welfare method and the individual level cost method to carry on the empirical analysis from the individual angle of view. Based on the experience of the pension market in developed countries and the actual operation of the capital market, this paper hypothesizes the relevant parameters needed in the annuity calculation process, including survival probability, discount rate, wage replacement rate of expected retirement payment, etc. A rate of increase in wages, rate of return on investment, etc Combined with the actual human resources related data (age, gender, entry years, wages), the annuity cost of a company is calculated. And according to the different investment style (conservative, balanced, positive) return assumptions calculated annuity contribution pressure. This paper analyzes the sensitivity of enterprise annuity contribution cost from discount rate, wage growth rate, substitution rate and so on.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.5
本文编号：2345362
[Abstract]:This paper first analyzes the aging process and the current situation of enterprise annuity development in China. Then, starting with the concept of annuity actuarial, this paper clarifies the two kinds of cost calculation ideas of accrual equity cost method and expected payment cost method, and compares the similarities and differences between them in calculation method and payment pressure. The expected unit benefit law (the increase of work contribution can obtain higher annuity payment), the individual level cost method (the normal cost of enterprise annuity is fixed or a certain ratio of salary income) is established separately. The total horizontal cost method (standing in the perspective of all participants in the enterprise annuity rather than the individual perspective) is used to measure the three models. The train of thought and calculation formula of three kinds of calculation models are explained. This paper chooses the expected unit welfare method and the individual level cost method to carry on the empirical analysis from the individual angle of view. Based on the experience of the pension market in developed countries and the actual operation of the capital market, this paper hypothesizes the relevant parameters needed in the annuity calculation process, including survival probability, discount rate, wage replacement rate of expected retirement payment, etc. A rate of increase in wages, rate of return on investment, etc Combined with the actual human resources related data (age, gender, entry years, wages), the annuity cost of a company is calculated. And according to the different investment style (conservative, balanced, positive) return assumptions calculated annuity contribution pressure. This paper analyzes the sensitivity of enterprise annuity contribution cost from discount rate, wage growth rate, substitution rate and so on.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.5
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 贾洪波;高倚云;;基于帕累托优化的基本养老金替代率测算[J];市场与人口分析;2007年01期
2 马丽;;新政下的企业年金走势[J];首席财务官;2011年06期
本文编号：2345362
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