房地产市场宏观调控政策对地产股价指数的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-28 11:35

【摘要】：房地产业是一个政策敏感型、资金密集型行业，这两个特征将房地产业、政府宏观调控政策和地产股市紧密联系在一起。地产股市承担着房地产业筹融资、资源配置的功能，同时也是经济发展的晴雨表，发挥着经济预测、价值发现的功能，二者通过资金纽带，建立起了相互依赖、高度关联的密切关系，因此地产调控政策往往通过对地产股市产生影响来对地产市场发挥效力。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的相关研究成果，运用Fast ICA、多元线性回归、统计检验等多种研究方法，采集数据，运用Fast ICA从众多影响地产股价波动的因素中寻出关键性影响因子，并对其影响效力进行求证；从理论层面分析政府调控政策对地产股价产生影响的同时，文章更是较大篇幅地运用多元线性回归，实证研究了不同类调控政策在短期和长期对地产股价产生的影响及其影响程度，并对回归模型的结论进行了统计检验。具体地，，首先从理论层面概述了地产股价指数波动的影响因素---宏观经济政策、公司因素及其他；在这些众多影响因素中，有的是可测的，有的是不可测的，如何去发现这些潜在的可测因素，及其如何对地产股价产生影响至关重要，同时也是一个极具挑战性的问题，鉴于此问题的解决，本文试图采用一种新的分析方法---快速独立成分分析法(Fast ICA)---找到影响地产股价指数波动的潜在决定性因素：大盘走势和政府宏观调控政策；接着通过虚拟地产指数，进一步去验证政府调控政策对地产股价指数的影响效力，这两部分结合起来可以说是一个完整的求证过程。其次，文章借鉴相关研究成果和经济学理论，从理论层面分析了房地产市场政府宏观调控对地产股价指数影响的理论模型、政府调控政策对地产股价的影响途径等；该部分为下文更关键的实证研究提供了可靠的理论依据和基础。再次，文章通过建立多元线性回归模型，就不同类调控政策对地产股价的长短期影响及影响程度进行了实证研究，并利用创新性的残差杠杆图等验证方法证明了多元线性回归模型建立的有效性，从而证明了实证研究结论的正确性，较优的统计检验结果为下篇房地产市场政策措施的提出奠定了坚实基础。最后结合前文分析研究的结论，文章简约地提出政府宏观调控的政策建议和可行性措施，以期实现房地产理性健康持续发展。结论部分，总结了文章的研究结论、新见解、创新研究方法、研究不足及展望等。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is a policy-sensitive and capital-intensive industry. These two characteristics closely link the real estate industry, the government macro-control policy and the real estate stock market. The real estate stock market undertakes the function of raising funds and allocating resources in the real estate industry, and it is also a barometer of economic development. It plays the role of economic prediction and value discovery. Closely related, so real estate regulation often through the impact on the real estate stock market to play a role in the real estate market. This paper draws lessons from the domestic and foreign relatively mature related research results, uses the Fast ICA, multivariate linear regression, the statistical test and other research methods, collects the data, uses the Fast ICA to find out the key influence factor from many factors which affect the real estate stock price fluctuation. And the effectiveness of its impact is verified; While analyzing the impact of government regulation and control policies on real estate stock prices from a theoretical perspective, the article uses multiple linear regression. This paper empirically studies the influence of different kinds of regulation and control policies on real estate stock price in the short and long term, and makes a statistical test on the conclusion of regression model. Specifically, first of all, it summarizes the influence factors of real estate stock price index fluctuation from the theoretical level-macroeconomic policy, corporate factors and others; Among these many influential factors, some are measurable and some are unmeasurable. How to find these potential measurable factors and how to affect the real estate stock price is very important, and it is also a very challenging question. In view of the solution of this problem, this paper attempts to use a new analytical method-Rapid Independent component Analysis (Fast ICA) to find out the potential decisive factors that affect the volatility of real estate stock price index: the market trend and the government's macro-control policy; Then through the virtual real estate index to further verify the impact of government regulation policies on the real estate stock index, the combination of these two parts can be said to be a complete process of verification. Secondly, based on the relevant research results and economic theory, this paper analyzes the theoretical model of the impact of government macro-control on the real estate stock price index from the theoretical level, the impact of government regulation policies on the real estate stock price, and so on. This part provides a reliable theoretical basis for the more critical empirical research below. Thirdly, through the establishment of multiple linear regression model, the paper makes an empirical study on the long-term and short-term impact of different types of regulatory policies on real estate stock prices and the degree of impact. The validity of the multivariate linear regression model is proved by using the innovative residual lever diagram and so on, which proves the correctness of the empirical research conclusion. The better statistical test results lay a solid foundation for the next real estate market policy measures. Finally, combined with the conclusion of the previous analysis, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions and feasible measures of government macro-control in order to realize rational and sustainable development of real estate. The conclusion part summarizes the research conclusion, the new opinion, the innovation research method, the research insufficiency and the prospect and so on.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F293.3;F832.51;F224

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