地方政府债务存在的原因和风险探索

发布时间：2018-12-11 22:00

【摘要】：地方政府债务问题一直是我国地方政府亟待解决的问题之一。我国《预算法》等法规明确规定,地方政府不得举债,但在实际过程中,各级地方政府为发展经济、保障民生,在财政资金不足的情况下,普遍存在举债行为。从目前情况看,各级地方政府举债的渠道、种类、形式多样,债务规模巨大,部分地方政府负债率和逾期债务率较高,存在较大的风险隐患,必须采取有效措施,积极防范和化解债务风险。本文正是在这一背景下,对地方政府债务产生的原因进行了分析,结合案例对地方政府债务存在的风险进行了探索,并就如何完善地方政府债务管理提出了建议。主要包括：在研究地方政府债务理论的基础上,首先确定了本文研究地方政府债务的涵义和分类界定。并对地方政府债务形成原因、存在必要性进行了探讨分析。其次,对地方政府债务进行了风险分析,揭示了地方政府债务存在的短期流动性风险、局部集中性风险等风险特征,确认了偿债率、债务率等风险计算指标和计算方法,并确定了如债务规模、举债结构等风险分析的内容。第三,在风险分析的基础上,设计了风险分析模型,赋予了安全区、轻警区、重警区三个级别的风险指标区间,并结合案例进行了实证分析。通过对案例中历年政府债务各风险指标的综合计算,分析了案例中政府债务的风险状况。同时,对案例的债务进行了结构分析,指出其在运用债务资金过程中存在的问题和风险,为提出完善地方政府债务的管理措施提供了参考。最后,本文在分析希腊债务危机发生的原因、借鉴美国和同本债务管理的基础上,结合案例分析情况,提出了完善我国地方政府债务管理的措施和方法。
[Abstract]:The problem of local government debt has always been one of the problems to be solved urgently by local governments in our country. Our country's "Budget Law" and other laws and regulations clearly stipulate that local governments may not borrow money, but in the actual process, in order to develop the economy and protect the people's livelihood, the local governments at all levels generally have the behavior of borrowing money under the condition of insufficient financial funds. Judging from the current situation, local governments at all levels have various channels, types, forms of debt, huge debt scale, high debt ratio and overdue debt rate of some local governments, and there are great risks and hidden dangers, so effective measures must be taken. Actively guard against and resolve debt risks. Under this background, this paper analyzes the causes of local government debt, explores the risk of local government debt, and puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the management of local government debt. The main contents are as follows: on the basis of studying the theory of local government debt, this paper firstly defines the meaning and classification of local government debt. At the same time, the reason and necessity of the local government debt formation are discussed and analyzed. Secondly, the paper analyzes the risk of local government debt, reveals the risk characteristics of local government debt, such as short-term liquidity risk, local centralized risk and so on, and confirms the risk calculation index and calculation method, such as debt service rate and debt rate, etc. And determined such as debt size, debt structure and other risk analysis content. Thirdly, on the basis of risk analysis, the risk analysis model is designed, which gives the risk index interval of security zone, light police area and heavy police area, and carries on the empirical analysis in combination with the case. The risk situation of government debt in the case is analyzed through the comprehensive calculation of each risk index of the government debt in the past years. At the same time, the paper analyzes the structure of the debt in the case, points out the problems and risks in the process of using the debt funds, and provides a reference for the improvement of the management measures of the local government debt. Finally, based on the analysis of the causes of the Greek debt crisis and the reference of the United States and the same debt management, combined with the case study, this paper puts forward the measures and methods to improve the debt management of local governments in China.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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