我国国债风险的预警系统研究

发布时间：2019-01-08 18:35

【摘要】：国债政策作为财政政策和货币政策的结合点,对于一国社会经济的发展发挥着重要的作用。我国自1981年开始恢复发行国债以来,国债规模就一直处于稳定增长的状态。但是,在欧债危机等一系列国内外复杂因素的影响下,我国的国债规模也在继续不断累积,国债风险逐渐显现。本文基于以上背景,试图在相关领域风险预警系统研究的基础上,构建出我国国债风险的预警系统,对我国国债的综合风险进行预警,从而为国债风险的有效管理起到一定的指导作用,也为我国国债政策的制定和实施提供相应的参考和建议。本文一共分为五部分的内容,第一部分为绪论,介绍了论文的研究背景意义、国内外文献综述、论文的研究方法以及创新与不足之处；第二部分将我国国债的规模发展分为国债的初始尝试发行、发行的空白时期以及国债的恢复发行并持续发展三个时期,并对这三个阶段国债的发行特征进行了研究；第三部分运用国际上通用的指标分析方法,从国民经济应债能力角度、财政应债能力角度以及国债的期限结构角度,构建出衡量国债风险的指标体系,运用指标分析法对我国国债的风险现状进行了研究；第四部分是我国国债风险预警系统的构建及其实证分析,运用AHP方法构建了我国国债风险的预警系统,对1990—2009年这20年间我国国债的综合风险状况进行了全面分析,结果表明,我国国债的综合风险程度不是很高,但是财政的应债能力和国债的期限结构风险较大。第五部分为政策建议,从促进经济发展、完善财政收支制度、优化国债投资方向以及提高国债的管理水平四个方面对今后防范国债风险提供了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, national debt policy plays an important role in the social and economic development of a country. Since 1981, China began to issue treasury bonds, the scale of national debt has been in a stable growth state. However, under the influence of European debt crisis and a series of complicated factors at home and abroad, the scale of national debt in our country continues to accumulate, and the risk of national debt gradually appears. Based on the above background, this paper tries to construct the early-warning system of the national debt risk in China on the basis of the research on the risk early warning system in the related fields, and carries on the early warning to the comprehensive risk of the national debt of our country. Thus, it plays a guiding role in the effective management of the risk of national debt, and also provides the corresponding reference and suggestions for the formulation and implementation of the national debt policy of our country. This paper is divided into five parts, the first part is the introduction, which introduces the research background significance, domestic and foreign literature review, research methods, innovation and deficiencies; The second part divides the scale development of the national debt into three periods: the initial attempt to issue the national debt, the blank period of the issue and the resumption and sustainable development of the national debt, and the characteristics of the issuance of the national debt in these three stages are studied. The third part uses the international common index analysis method, from the national economy debt ability angle, the finance debt ability angle as well as the national debt term structure angle, constructs the index system which measures the national debt risk. The risk status of national debt in China is studied by using the index analysis method. The fourth part is the construction and empirical analysis of China's national debt risk warning system, using the AHP method to build a national debt risk early warning system, the 20-year 1990-2009 comprehensive risk situation of China's national debt has been comprehensively analyzed. The results show that the comprehensive risk of national debt in China is not very high, but the debt capacity of finance and the term structure risk of national debt are higher. The fifth part is the policy suggestion, from four aspects: promoting the economic development, perfecting the financial revenue and expenditure system, optimizing the investment direction of the national debt and improving the management level of the national debt, it provides the corresponding policy suggestions for preventing the risk of the national debt in the future.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5;F224

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